Should I buy Tim Hortons stock in 2025?

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At HelloSafe, our experts have been monitoring Tim Hortons’ performance for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of Canadians trust us to make sense of market trends and highlight the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. In line with our ethical standards, we have never accepted, and will never accept, any compensation from Tim Hortons.

What is Tim Hortons?

How much is Tim Hortons stock?

The price of Tim Hortons stock is rising this week. As of now, shares are trading at $64.08 USD, with a 24-hour increase of +0.68%, though the weekly change shows a decline of -4.18%. The company’s market capitalization stands at $29.68 billion USD, averaging over recent months a trading volume of around 1.2 million shares. Tim Hortons reports a P/E ratio of 20.26 and offers a solid 3.85% dividend yield, while its stock beta signals moderate volatility, consistent with comparable restaurant brands. Investors should note that while the stock has faced short-term swings, its stable fundamentals and dividend history offer a compelling option for those seeking steady returns with manageable risk.

Our full analysis on Tim Hortons stock

Having reviewed Tim Hortons’s latest financial disclosures and analyzed the stock’s performance trajectory over the past three years, we have leveraged a blend of quantitative financial measures, advanced technical signals, and a comparative market study through our proprietary analytical models. Drawing from multiple data sources and up-to-date market intelligence, our assessment seeks to illuminate the strengths and opportunities embedded in the stock. So, why might Tim Hortons stock once again become a strategic entry point into the fast-growing North American quick service restaurant sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Tim Hortons, under Restaurant Brands International (RBI, NYSE/TSX: QSR), has adeptly navigated a dynamic macroeconomic backdrop in 2024 and early 2025. The current share price stands at $64.08 USD, translating to a market capitalization of nearly $30 billion—a testament to investors’ sustained confidence in the franchise and its parent company.

Over the past twelve months, the stock has undergone some volatility: while the year-on-year performance registers a moderate pullback (-15.21%), the recent 24-hour movement (+0.68%) and stabilization around the $64 level suggest a phase of consolidation rather than enduring weakness. Notably, downward pressure over the last six months appears to be giving way to lateral price action—a frequent precursor to trend reversals, particularly when underpinned by robust business fundamentals.

Recent developments have leaned positive. Double-digit system-wide growth (5.6% in Q4 2024 alone) and comparable sales expansion (+2.5% globally, +2.5% at Tim Hortons) reinforce operational momentum. Tim Hortons’s ongoing strength in Canada, backed by over 6,000 locations globally and dominant market share in both hot brewed coffee (70%+) and baked goods (65%+), provides resilience even amidst broader sector recalibrations. On a macro level, the quick service restaurant industry continues to benefit from higher food-at-home inflation, the resurgence of mobility, and increased out-of-home consumption—a backdrop that generally favors established operators with scale.

Technical Analysis

A nuanced technical review of QSR highlights several emerging bullish factors, albeit within a neutral medium-term framework. The relative strength index (RSI) oscillates between 42.17 and 53.50—solidly within neutral territory—while the MACD indicator registers a mild bullish divergence, increasing from 0.09 to 0.82. These readings, when seen in tandem, indicate that bearish momentum has waned and positioning is constructive for an upside move should a catalyst emerge.

Support is defined by the clustering of the 10-day and 20-day moving averages ($62.71 and $63.81, respectively). This range has repeatedly functioned as a technical floor, with recent price action reinforcing buying interest on dips. Meanwhile, overhead resistance is delineated by the 200-day moving average ($66.62) and recent trading highs in the $66–$67 range. A sustained break above this area would likely confirm the onset of a new bullish cycle, with room for a re-rating as sentiment improves.

Medium-term momentum is increasingly favorable. The stock’s ability to stabilize above short-term moving averages—even as it consolidates below the longer-term 200-day MA—suggests that QSR may be in the latter stages of a corrective phase. Investors seeking optimal risk-reward may find current levels particularly attractive given the tight technical structure and proximity to clear support.

Fundamental Analysis

Tim Hortons continues to deliver a compelling fundamental narrative, anchored by meaningful revenue expansion, sustained profitability, and forward-looking strategy. In 2024, the brand generated revenues of approximately $4.04 billion USD, contributing materially to RBI’s consolidated top line of $8.41 billion USD—an impressive feat given market headwinds and ongoing competitive pressures.

Comparable sales rose 4.3% for the year and 2.5% in the final quarter, demonstrating Tim Hortons’s capacity to capture incremental spending even in a mature market. System-wide sales, at $44 billion across the RBI portfolio, cement the chain’s preeminent status not only in Canada but within the global fast-food universe.

Profitability metrics remain robust. Franchise segment profitability surged by 30% year-over-year, while the company’s strict discipline over costs and operational efficiencies have helped sustain operating margins. The franchise model structure—renowned for high cash flow generation and low capital intensity—continues to reinforce Tim Hortons’s resilience and asset-light advantage.

Valuation is another area of relative strength. With a trailing P/E of 20.26 and a best-in-class dividend yield nearing 4% (recently raised to $0.62 USD/share per quarter), QSR offers both growth and income in an affordable package. Compared to the wider restaurant peer group, this valuation is compelling, especially given mid-single-digit sales growth and an appealing pipeline of new store openings and menu innovations.

Structurally, Tim Hortons benefits from:

• Brand equity: Iconic status in Canada, buttressed by deep-rooted consumer loyalty.
• Market share leadership: Unmatched dominance in coffee and baked goods.
• Strategic innovation: Digital transformation (mobile orders, loyalty apps), new product launches (flatbread pizzas), and expansion into adjacent categories.
• Expansion drive: Ongoing geographic push into the U.S., China, and emerging global markets, coupled with new store formats and franchise partnerships.

Volume and Liquidity

Sustained trading volume in QSR further validates market confidence. Over recent quarters, average daily volumes have remained well above historical averages, ensuring that institutional investors can build or adjust positions without significant market impact. Robust liquidity is a hallmark of stable valuation, limiting volatility and enabling smoother price discovery.

The stock’s float is predominantly in the hands of diverse, long-term oriented investors, including index funds and pension managers. This ownership profile fosters valuation support and curbs excessive speculative swings, making QSR a particularly attractive target for both growth- and income-seeking portfolios. High float combined with institutional oversight also facilitates dynamic valuation adjustments as new information or catalysts arise.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Looking forward, the opportunity set for Tim Hortons is expansive, underpinned by several growth vectors and structural gears for upward mobility:

• International Expansion: Aggressive rollout in China and other key Asian markets, where Western QSR penetration remains in early stages.
• Domestic Store Growth: Plans for additional outlets in rural and underserved Canadian regions, extending lead even in a saturated home market.
• Menu and Product Innovation: Introduction of items like flatbread pizzas, as well as continuous tweaks to core offerings, are designed to boost average ticket size and improve daypart performance.
• Digitalization: Enhancement of loyalty programs and the mobile app ecosystem are driving both order frequency and higher basket sizes. Digital ordering now comprises a sizable share of total sales, fortifying direct consumer engagement and data-driven marketing.
• ESG Initiatives: Rising focus on sustainability—such as ethical sourcing and environmental programs—positions Tim Hortons strongly with younger consumer cohorts and institutional investors with ESG mandates.
• Dividend Growth: The recent step-up in the quarterly dividend not only increases income appeal but also signals profound boardroom confidence in forward cash flow durability.

Against an industry backdrop that is benefiting from post-pandemic normalization, ongoing urbanization, and shifting consumer preferences towards convenience-driven dining, Tim Hortons appears strategically positioned to outperform.

Investment Strategies

Given these macro and micro dynamics, multiple investment strategies may warrant consideration, whether for short-, medium-, or long-term horizons:

• Short-Term: The convergence of technical support ($62-63) and positive MACD/RSI signals presents an opportune entry for traders targeting a rebound towards the $66-67 resistance zone. Near-term catalysts—such as same-store sales updates, dividend announcements, or new product launches—could provide incremental upside.
• Medium-Term: Investors with modest risk tolerance may benefit from entering on a confirmed break above the 200-day MA ($66.62), which would likely catalyze momentum buying and open the path for a re-rating to historical valuation multiples.
• Long-Term: For those with a multi-quarter to multi-year view, exposure to QSR at current levels seems compelling. The franchise’s expansion blueprint, coupled with its robust earnings power and capital return policies, support the thesis for durable, compounding outperformance relative to general Canadian equities and the broader North American restaurant benchmark.

A prudent approach may involve scaling into a position during technical pullbacks or ahead of scheduled corporate updates, where volatility tends to retrace and risk/reward becomes especially appealing.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Tim Hortons?

Tim Hortons embodies an attractive blend of defensive quality, consistent growth, and shareholder-friendly capital allocation. The evidence points to several converging strengths:

• Strong franchise and brand leadership in core Canadian and fast-growing international markets
• Reliable revenue and earnings expansion, even in challenging environments
• Dynamic management, supported by a proven parent company
• Accretive innovation across digital, product, and operational domains
• A compelling dividend offering, with recent hikes reinforcing management’s confidence

Technically, the stock’s structure appears poised for a renewed upward phase, with solid support anchoring downside risk and a clustering of moving averages telegraphing the potential for a bullish inflection. Fundamentally, the valuation is not only reasonable but potentially conservative when considered against forward growth and dividend yield.

Given these factors, Tim Hortons—via its parent, Restaurant Brands International (QSR)—seems to represent an excellent opportunity for Canadian investors seeking both growth and income. While every investment carries inherent risks, the overall risk/reward profile appears decidedly skewed towards long-term value creation. The stock’s robust fundamentals, innovative strategies, and market leadership together create a powerful case for renewed optimism in 2025.

In summary, Tim Hortons stands out as a dynamic blue-chip within the quick service restaurant space whose present positioning and future pipeline may be entering a new bullish phase—making this a moment well worth considering for both value and growth-oriented investors seeking exposure to a true Canadian icon.

How to buy Tim Hortons stock in Canada?

Buying Tim Hortons stock online has never been easier or more secure for Canadian investors. By using a regulated broker, you can invest in Tim Hortons—listed under Restaurant Brands International (QSR) on the TSX and NYSE—safely and conveniently from your computer or mobile device. The main two options are a direct (spot) purchase of shares or trading Tim Hortons stock via CFDs (Contracts for Difference). Each method comes with its own advantages, which we explain below to help you choose the best fit for your investment goals. Find a detailed broker comparison further down this page.

Spot Buying

A cash (spot) purchase means you are buying real Tim Hortons shares as part of Restaurant Brands International (QSR), and you become a shareholder in the company. You usually pay a fixed commission per order, typically between $4 and $10 CAD, depending on your broker.

Important Example

Suppose the Tim Hortons (QSR) share price is $64.08 USD. That’s about $88 CAD (using a 1.37 exchange rate as of early 2025). With a $1,000 CAD investment, and including a standard $5 commission, you could buy around 11 shares ($88 × 11 = $968 + $5 fee = $973).

✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price increases by 10% to about $96.80 USD (approximately $97 per share), your holdings are now worth around $1,100 CAD.

Result: That's a $100 gross gain, or +10% on your investment—plus you may also benefit from dividends if you hold the shares.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading means you speculate on the price movement of Tim Hortons shares (QSR) without owning the actual stock. This method allows you to use leverage, with typical trading fees including a spread (the difference between buy and sell) and overnight financing costs if you hold positions beyond a day.

Example

You decide to trade Tim Hortons (QSR) via CFDs with $1,000 CAD and use 5x leverage. This means you have exposure equivalent to $5,000 CAD.

✔️ Gain scenario: If the stock price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 (leverage) = 40%.

Result: That's a $400 gain on your $1,000 investment (before account fees or interest). Keep in mind that losses are also magnified, and CFD trading is riskier than direct ownership.

Final Advice

Before investing, it is essential to compare broker fees, commissions, currency conversion costs, and the quality of their platforms. Whether you choose to buy Tim Hortons (QSR) shares directly or trade via CFDs depends on your risk tolerance, investment horizon, and financial objectives. To make an informed decision, be sure to consult the broker comparison tool further down the page and choose what aligns best with your strategies and goals.

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Our 7 tips for buying Tim Hortons stock

The latest news about Tim Hortons

Tim Hortons has maintained its dominant Canadian market leadership, holding over 70% in hot brewed coffee and 65% in baked goods. This unrivaled presence across Canada reinforces both revenue stability and brand resilience, drawing consistent customer traffic in a highly competitive quick-service sector. The chain’s confirmed focus on expanding specifically in rural and Western Canadian regions, combined with its unparalleled geographic reach, solidifies its status as a cornerstone of Restaurant Brands International’s portfolio and a critical indicator for its stock performance.

In the last quarter, Tim Hortons demonstrated robust operational momentum, achieving a 2.5% growth in comparable sales and a 30% increase in franchisee profitability. These earnings results underline management’s effective strategy execution and efficiency improvements, especially as the quick-service restaurant market in Canada becomes more competitive. Professional analysts will note that the brand remains an outsized contributor to RBI’s $8.41 billion in 2024 revenue, and that sustained top-line growth is supported by targeted menu innovation and operational enhancements.

Investors benefit from a 7% rise in quarterly dividend payments, now at $0.62 USD per share, reflecting RBC’s commitment to shareholder returns. This increase lifts the stock’s dividend yield to a strong 3.85% (trailing) and up to 4.03% (forward), providing an attractive income component for Canadian portfolios seeking reliable returns. The generous dividend policy acts as a key support for the stock price during periods of market uncertainty, and signals confidence from both management and the board in the business’s long-term outlook.

Tim Hortons is driving future growth through digital innovation and product diversification, notably with the rollout of enhanced mobile apps and new menu items like flatbread pizzas. The brand’s continued investment in its digital ordering platform and loyalty programs is paying off in elevated customer engagement and higher average ticket values, which is essential given shifting consumer preferences post-pandemic. Menu expansion into new categories is strategically designed to lift both visitation frequency and average check size across Canadian locations.

Short-term technical signals are stable, with the stock consolidating near key moving averages and showing a slight bullish momentum on positive MACD readings. With the current share price of $64.08 USD and neutral RSI levels, analysts may view the stock as having limited downside in the near term, supported by a strong earnings base and stable dividend. Resistance levels near $66-67 and support around $62-63 offer technical reference points, while fundamentals remain favorable, especially for Canadian-focused investment strategies given Tim Hortons’ local dominance and growth outlook.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.