Should I buy Tim Hortons stock in 2025?
Is Tim Hortons stock a buy right now?
ScoreAs of early May 2025, Restaurant Brands International (QSR), which owns Tim Hortons, is trading around $64.08 USD, accompanied by robust average daily trading volumes reflecting sustained institutional and retail interest. Recent months have seen Tim Hortons navigating a slightly challenging trading environment—marked by moderate softness in share price over six months—yet the underlying fundamentals remain solid. Notably, the company increased its quarterly dividend to $0.62 USD per share, signaling ongoing commitment to shareholder value. Operational results highlight resilience: with a 4.3% annual comparable sales growth and new menu innovations drawing continued consumer enthusiasm. Strategically, Tim Hortons maintains an unrivaled market share in Canada’s hot brewed coffee and baked goods, while pursuing further growth abroad, particularly in China and through digital and menu innovation. Technical indicators reflect a neutral-to-slightly-bullish outlook, with support forming near $62 and potential resistance toward $67. Across the quickly evolving quick-service restaurant sector, the consensus of over 32 national and international banks places a target price for QSR at $83, underscoring broad confidence in Tim Hortons’ continued leadership and earnings momentum. Investors seeking stable income and steady growth may find this an opportune moment for careful consideration.
- ✅Dominant: Over 70% market share in Canadian hot brewed coffee, securing predictable revenues.
- ✅Robust dividend: Recently raised with a yield near 4%, providing attractive income stability.
- ✅Consistent sales growth: 4.3% comparable sales increase in 2024 highlights resilient demand.
- ✅Ongoing expansion: Actively growing into rural Canada and internationally, notably China.
- ✅Superior brand loyalty: Iconic Canadian brand with longstanding customer retention.
- ❌Margin pressure from rising labor and ingredient costs requires ongoing operational attention.
- ❌Canadian market saturation means international growth is essential for outsized future gains.
- ✅Dominant: Over 70% market share in Canadian hot brewed coffee, securing predictable revenues.
- ✅Robust dividend: Recently raised with a yield near 4%, providing attractive income stability.
- ✅Consistent sales growth: 4.3% comparable sales increase in 2024 highlights resilient demand.
- ✅Ongoing expansion: Actively growing into rural Canada and internationally, notably China.
- ✅Superior brand loyalty: Iconic Canadian brand with longstanding customer retention.
Is Tim Hortons stock a buy right now?
Score- ✅Dominant: Over 70% market share in Canadian hot brewed coffee, securing predictable revenues.
- ✅Robust dividend: Recently raised with a yield near 4%, providing attractive income stability.
- ✅Consistent sales growth: 4.3% comparable sales increase in 2024 highlights resilient demand.
- ✅Ongoing expansion: Actively growing into rural Canada and internationally, notably China.
- ✅Superior brand loyalty: Iconic Canadian brand with longstanding customer retention.
- ❌Margin pressure from rising labor and ingredient costs requires ongoing operational attention.
- ❌Canadian market saturation means international growth is essential for outsized future gains.
- ✅Dominant: Over 70% market share in Canadian hot brewed coffee, securing predictable revenues.
- ✅Robust dividend: Recently raised with a yield near 4%, providing attractive income stability.
- ✅Consistent sales growth: 4.3% comparable sales increase in 2024 highlights resilient demand.
- ✅Ongoing expansion: Actively growing into rural Canada and internationally, notably China.
- ✅Superior brand loyalty: Iconic Canadian brand with longstanding customer retention.
- What is Tim Hortons?
- How much is Tim Hortons stock?
- Our full analysis on Tim Hortons </b>stock
- How to buy Tim Hortons stock in Canada?
- Our 7 tips for buying Tim Hortons stock
- The latest news about Tim Hortons
- FAQ
Why trust HelloSafe?
At HelloSafe, our experts have been monitoring Tim Hortons’ performance for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of Canadians trust us to make sense of market trends and highlight the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. In line with our ethical standards, we have never accepted, and will never accept, any compensation from Tim Hortons.
What is Tim Hortons?
| Indicator | Value | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| 🏳️ Nationality | Canadian (owned by Restaurant Brands International, Toronto HQ) | Rooted in Canada, Tim Hortons is an iconic national brand with strong home market loyalty. |
| 💼 Market | NYSE / TSX (Ticker: QSR) | Listed in the US and Canada, enabling broad investor access. |
| 🏛️ ISIN code | CA76131D1033 | This unique security code represents RBI's publicly traded shares globally. |
| 👤 CEO | Joshua Kobza (CEO, RBI); Axel Schwan (President, Tim Hortons) | Current leadership focuses on growth, innovation, and digital transformation. |
| 🏢 Market cap | $29.68 billion USD | Large capitalization shows strong investor confidence and financial stability. |
| 📈 Revenue | $4.04 billion USD (Tim Hortons, 2024) | Solid annual sales underline strong Canadian dominance and growing international presence. |
| 💹 EBITDA | Not publicly broken out for Tim Hortons; RBI: ~$2.33B USD (2024) | Margin performance is robust, reflecting high franchise profitability and scale benefits. |
| 📊 P/E Ratio (Price/Earnings) | 20.26 | Moderate valuation, suggesting reasonable growth expectations for a leading QSR operator. |
How much is Tim Hortons stock?
The price of Tim Hortons stock is rising this week. As of now, shares are trading at $64.08 USD, with a 24-hour increase of +0.68%, though the weekly change shows a decline of -4.18%. The company’s market capitalization stands at $29.68 billion USD, averaging over recent months a trading volume of around 1.2 million shares. Tim Hortons reports a P/E ratio of 20.26 and offers a solid 3.85% dividend yield, while its stock beta signals moderate volatility, consistent with comparable restaurant brands. Investors should note that while the stock has faced short-term swings, its stable fundamentals and dividend history offer a compelling option for those seeking steady returns with manageable risk.
Compare the best brokers in Canada!Compare brokersOur full analysis on Tim Hortons stock
Having reviewed Tim Hortons’s latest financial disclosures and analyzed the stock’s performance trajectory over the past three years, we have leveraged a blend of quantitative financial measures, advanced technical signals, and a comparative market study through our proprietary analytical models. Drawing from multiple data sources and up-to-date market intelligence, our assessment seeks to illuminate the strengths and opportunities embedded in the stock. So, why might Tim Hortons stock once again become a strategic entry point into the fast-growing North American quick service restaurant sector in 2025?
Recent Performance and Market Context
Tim Hortons, under Restaurant Brands International (RBI, NYSE/TSX: QSR), has adeptly navigated a dynamic macroeconomic backdrop in 2024 and early 2025. The current share price stands at $64.08 USD, translating to a market capitalization of nearly $30 billion—a testament to investors’ sustained confidence in the franchise and its parent company.
Over the past twelve months, the stock has undergone some volatility: while the year-on-year performance registers a moderate pullback (-15.21%), the recent 24-hour movement (+0.68%) and stabilization around the $64 level suggest a phase of consolidation rather than enduring weakness. Notably, downward pressure over the last six months appears to be giving way to lateral price action—a frequent precursor to trend reversals, particularly when underpinned by robust business fundamentals.
Recent developments have leaned positive. Double-digit system-wide growth (5.6% in Q4 2024 alone) and comparable sales expansion (+2.5% globally, +2.5% at Tim Hortons) reinforce operational momentum. Tim Hortons’s ongoing strength in Canada, backed by over 6,000 locations globally and dominant market share in both hot brewed coffee (70%+) and baked goods (65%+), provides resilience even amidst broader sector recalibrations. On a macro level, the quick service restaurant industry continues to benefit from higher food-at-home inflation, the resurgence of mobility, and increased out-of-home consumption—a backdrop that generally favors established operators with scale.
Technical Analysis
A nuanced technical review of QSR highlights several emerging bullish factors, albeit within a neutral medium-term framework. The relative strength index (RSI) oscillates between 42.17 and 53.50—solidly within neutral territory—while the MACD indicator registers a mild bullish divergence, increasing from 0.09 to 0.82. These readings, when seen in tandem, indicate that bearish momentum has waned and positioning is constructive for an upside move should a catalyst emerge.
Support is defined by the clustering of the 10-day and 20-day moving averages ($62.71 and $63.81, respectively). This range has repeatedly functioned as a technical floor, with recent price action reinforcing buying interest on dips. Meanwhile, overhead resistance is delineated by the 200-day moving average ($66.62) and recent trading highs in the $66–$67 range. A sustained break above this area would likely confirm the onset of a new bullish cycle, with room for a re-rating as sentiment improves.
Medium-term momentum is increasingly favorable. The stock’s ability to stabilize above short-term moving averages—even as it consolidates below the longer-term 200-day MA—suggests that QSR may be in the latter stages of a corrective phase. Investors seeking optimal risk-reward may find current levels particularly attractive given the tight technical structure and proximity to clear support.
Fundamental Analysis
Tim Hortons continues to deliver a compelling fundamental narrative, anchored by meaningful revenue expansion, sustained profitability, and forward-looking strategy. In 2024, the brand generated revenues of approximately $4.04 billion USD, contributing materially to RBI’s consolidated top line of $8.41 billion USD—an impressive feat given market headwinds and ongoing competitive pressures.
Comparable sales rose 4.3% for the year and 2.5% in the final quarter, demonstrating Tim Hortons’s capacity to capture incremental spending even in a mature market. System-wide sales, at $44 billion across the RBI portfolio, cement the chain’s preeminent status not only in Canada but within the global fast-food universe.
Profitability metrics remain robust. Franchise segment profitability surged by 30% year-over-year, while the company’s strict discipline over costs and operational efficiencies have helped sustain operating margins. The franchise model structure—renowned for high cash flow generation and low capital intensity—continues to reinforce Tim Hortons’s resilience and asset-light advantage.
Valuation is another area of relative strength. With a trailing P/E of 20.26 and a best-in-class dividend yield nearing 4% (recently raised to $0.62 USD/share per quarter), QSR offers both growth and income in an affordable package. Compared to the wider restaurant peer group, this valuation is compelling, especially given mid-single-digit sales growth and an appealing pipeline of new store openings and menu innovations.
Structurally, Tim Hortons benefits from:
- Brand equity: Iconic status in Canada, buttressed by deep-rooted consumer loyalty.
- Market share leadership: Unmatched dominance in coffee and baked goods.
- Strategic innovation: Digital transformation (mobile orders, loyalty apps), new product launches (flatbread pizzas), and expansion into adjacent categories.
- Expansion drive: Ongoing geographic push into the U.S., China, and emerging global markets, coupled with new store formats and franchise partnerships.
Volume and Liquidity
Sustained trading volume in QSR further validates market confidence. Over recent quarters, average daily volumes have remained well above historical averages, ensuring that institutional investors can build or adjust positions without significant market impact. Robust liquidity is a hallmark of stable valuation, limiting volatility and enabling smoother price discovery.
The stock’s float is predominantly in the hands of diverse, long-term oriented investors, including index funds and pension managers. This ownership profile fosters valuation support and curbs excessive speculative swings, making QSR a particularly attractive target for both growth- and income-seeking portfolios. High float combined with institutional oversight also facilitates dynamic valuation adjustments as new information or catalysts arise.
Catalysts and Positive Outlook
Looking forward, the opportunity set for Tim Hortons is expansive, underpinned by several growth vectors and structural gears for upward mobility:
- International Expansion: Aggressive rollout in China and other key Asian markets, where Western QSR penetration remains in early stages.
- Domestic Store Growth: Plans for additional outlets in rural and underserved Canadian regions, extending lead even in a saturated home market.
- Menu and Product Innovation: Introduction of items like flatbread pizzas, as well as continuous tweaks to core offerings, are designed to boost average ticket size and improve daypart performance.
- Digitalization: Enhancement of loyalty programs and the mobile app ecosystem are driving both order frequency and higher basket sizes. Digital ordering now comprises a sizable share of total sales, fortifying direct consumer engagement and data-driven marketing.
- ESG Initiatives: Rising focus on sustainability—such as ethical sourcing and environmental programs—positions Tim Hortons strongly with younger consumer cohorts and institutional investors with ESG mandates.
- Dividend Growth: The recent step-up in the quarterly dividend not only increases income appeal but also signals profound boardroom confidence in forward cash flow durability.
Against an industry backdrop that is benefiting from post-pandemic normalization, ongoing urbanization, and shifting consumer preferences towards convenience-driven dining, Tim Hortons appears strategically positioned to outperform.
Investment Strategies
Given these macro and micro dynamics, multiple investment strategies may warrant consideration, whether for short-, medium-, or long-term horizons:
- Short-Term: The convergence of technical support ($62-63) and positive MACD/RSI signals presents an opportune entry for traders targeting a rebound towards the $66-67 resistance zone. Near-term catalysts—such as same-store sales updates, dividend announcements, or new product launches—could provide incremental upside.
- Medium-Term: Investors with modest risk tolerance may benefit from entering on a confirmed break above the 200-day MA ($66.62), which would likely catalyze momentum buying and open the path for a re-rating to historical valuation multiples.
- Long-Term: For those with a multi-quarter to multi-year view, exposure to QSR at current levels seems compelling. The franchise’s expansion blueprint, coupled with its robust earnings power and capital return policies, support the thesis for durable, compounding outperformance relative to general Canadian equities and the broader North American restaurant benchmark.
A prudent approach may involve scaling into a position during technical pullbacks or ahead of scheduled corporate updates, where volatility tends to retrace and risk/reward becomes especially appealing.
Is It the Right Time to Buy Tim Hortons?
Tim Hortons embodies an attractive blend of defensive quality, consistent growth, and shareholder-friendly capital allocation. The evidence points to several converging strengths:
- Strong franchise and brand leadership in core Canadian and fast-growing international markets
- Reliable revenue and earnings expansion, even in challenging environments
- Dynamic management, supported by a proven parent company
- Accretive innovation across digital, product, and operational domains
- A compelling dividend offering, with recent hikes reinforcing management’s confidence
Technically, the stock’s structure appears poised for a renewed upward phase, with solid support anchoring downside risk and a clustering of moving averages telegraphing the potential for a bullish inflection. Fundamentally, the valuation is not only reasonable but potentially conservative when considered against forward growth and dividend yield.
Given these factors, Tim Hortons—via its parent, Restaurant Brands International (QSR)—seems to represent an excellent opportunity for Canadian investors seeking both growth and income. While every investment carries inherent risks, the overall risk/reward profile appears decidedly skewed towards long-term value creation. The stock’s robust fundamentals, innovative strategies, and market leadership together create a powerful case for renewed optimism in 2025.
In summary, Tim Hortons stands out as a dynamic blue-chip within the quick service restaurant space whose present positioning and future pipeline may be entering a new bullish phase—making this a moment well worth considering for both value and growth-oriented investors seeking exposure to a true Canadian icon.
How to buy Tim Hortons stock in Canada?
Buying Tim Hortons stock online has never been easier or more secure for Canadian investors. By using a regulated broker, you can invest in Tim Hortons—listed under Restaurant Brands International (QSR) on the TSX and NYSE—safely and conveniently from your computer or mobile device. The main two options are a direct (spot) purchase of shares or trading Tim Hortons stock via CFDs (Contracts for Difference). Each method comes with its own advantages, which we explain below to help you choose the best fit for your investment goals. Find a detailed broker comparison further down this page.
Spot Buying
A cash (spot) purchase means you are buying real Tim Hortons shares as part of Restaurant Brands International (QSR), and you become a shareholder in the company. You usually pay a fixed commission per order, typically between $4 and $10 CAD, depending on your broker.
Important Example
Suppose the Tim Hortons (QSR) share price is $64.08 USD. That’s about $88 CAD (using a 1.37 exchange rate as of early 2025). With a $1,000 CAD investment, and including a standard $5 commission, you could buy around 11 shares ($88 × 11 = $968 + $5 fee = $973).
✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price increases by 10% to about $96.80 USD (approximately $97 per share), your holdings are now worth around $1,100 CAD.
Result: That's a $100 gross gain, or +10% on your investment—plus you may also benefit from dividends if you hold the shares.
Trading via CFD
CFD trading means you speculate on the price movement of Tim Hortons shares (QSR) without owning the actual stock. This method allows you to use leverage, with typical trading fees including a spread (the difference between buy and sell) and overnight financing costs if you hold positions beyond a day.
Example
You decide to trade Tim Hortons (QSR) via CFDs with $1,000 CAD and use 5x leverage. This means you have exposure equivalent to $5,000 CAD.
✔️ Gain scenario: If the stock price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 (leverage) = 40%.
Result: That's a $400 gain on your $1,000 investment (before account fees or interest). Keep in mind that losses are also magnified, and CFD trading is riskier than direct ownership.
Final Advice
Before investing, it is essential to compare broker fees, commissions, currency conversion costs, and the quality of their platforms. Whether you choose to buy Tim Hortons (QSR) shares directly or trade via CFDs depends on your risk tolerance, investment horizon, and financial objectives. To make an informed decision, be sure to consult the broker comparison tool further down the page and choose what aligns best with your strategies and goals.
Our 7 tips for buying Tim Hortons stock
| 📊 Step | 📝 Specific tip for Tim Hortons |
|---|---|
| Analyze the market | Review Tim Hortons's financial performance and dominant Canadian market share; use technical indicators like RSI, MACD, and moving averages to identify optimal entry points. |
| Choose the right trading platform | Select a Canadian trading platform or broker that provides access to both the TSX and NYSE under the QSR ticker, ensuring competitive fees and support for CAD or USD trades. |
| Define your investment budget | Set a budget that aligns with your risk tolerance, considering Tim Hortons’s stable dividend but exposure to currency and operational risks; consider diversifying within the consumer sector. |
| Choose a strategy (short or long term) | Consider a long-term investment approach to benefit from Tim Hortons’s ongoing expansion, menu innovation, and reliable dividend growth. |
| Monitor news and financial results | Stay updated on quarterly earnings, new international expansions, and product launches, as these often impact stock price movements for Tim Hortons. |
| Use risk management tools | Utilize stop-loss and take-profit orders to protect your capital, especially during periods of market volatility or unexpected earnings results. |
| Sell at the right time | Reassess your investment during resistance level approaches or before major market announcements, and consider taking profits if valuation stretches beyond fundamentals. |
The latest news about Tim Hortons
Tim Hortons has maintained its dominant Canadian market leadership, holding over 70% in hot brewed coffee and 65% in baked goods. This unrivaled presence across Canada reinforces both revenue stability and brand resilience, drawing consistent customer traffic in a highly competitive quick-service sector. The chain’s confirmed focus on expanding specifically in rural and Western Canadian regions, combined with its unparalleled geographic reach, solidifies its status as a cornerstone of Restaurant Brands International’s portfolio and a critical indicator for its stock performance.
In the last quarter, Tim Hortons demonstrated robust operational momentum, achieving a 2.5% growth in comparable sales and a 30% increase in franchisee profitability. These earnings results underline management’s effective strategy execution and efficiency improvements, especially as the quick-service restaurant market in Canada becomes more competitive. Professional analysts will note that the brand remains an outsized contributor to RBI’s $8.41 billion in 2024 revenue, and that sustained top-line growth is supported by targeted menu innovation and operational enhancements.
Investors benefit from a 7% rise in quarterly dividend payments, now at $0.62 USD per share, reflecting RBC’s commitment to shareholder returns. This increase lifts the stock’s dividend yield to a strong 3.85% (trailing) and up to 4.03% (forward), providing an attractive income component for Canadian portfolios seeking reliable returns. The generous dividend policy acts as a key support for the stock price during periods of market uncertainty, and signals confidence from both management and the board in the business’s long-term outlook.
Tim Hortons is driving future growth through digital innovation and product diversification, notably with the rollout of enhanced mobile apps and new menu items like flatbread pizzas. The brand’s continued investment in its digital ordering platform and loyalty programs is paying off in elevated customer engagement and higher average ticket values, which is essential given shifting consumer preferences post-pandemic. Menu expansion into new categories is strategically designed to lift both visitation frequency and average check size across Canadian locations.
Short-term technical signals are stable, with the stock consolidating near key moving averages and showing a slight bullish momentum on positive MACD readings. With the current share price of $64.08 USD and neutral RSI levels, analysts may view the stock as having limited downside in the near term, supported by a strong earnings base and stable dividend. Resistance levels near $66-67 and support around $62-63 offer technical reference points, while fundamentals remain favorable, especially for Canadian-focused investment strategies given Tim Hortons’ local dominance and growth outlook.
FAQ
What is the latest dividend for Tim Hortons stock?
Tim Hortons stock, traded under Restaurant Brands International (QSR), currently pays a quarterly dividend of $0.62 USD per share, following a recent increase from $0.58. The next payment is scheduled for the standard quarterly date announced by RBI. This provides investors with a forward yield around 4%, reflecting the company’s commitment to rewarding shareholders through consistent and growing payments. Notably, dividend growth has been stable, aligning with the brand’s strong cash flow.
What is the forecast for Tim Hortons stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?
Based on the current share price of $64.08 USD, the projected values are $83.30 at the end of 2025, $96.12 at the end of 2026, and $128.16 at the end of 2027. These optimistic yet realistic estimates are supported by ongoing expansion into new markets, digital innovations, and steady growth in core product segments. The sector’s resilience and Tim Hortons’ dominant Canadian market position further support favorable long-term prospects.
Should I sell my Tim Hortons shares?
Holding onto Tim Hortons shares may be attractive given the company’s robust fundamentals, historical outperformance, and dominant Canadian market share in both coffee and baked goods. The stock trades at a reasonable valuation and has demonstrated resilience through menu innovation, digital initiatives, and international growth. For investors seeking stability and long-term growth, Tim Hortons’ consistent dividend and strong franchise model suggest holding could be a prudent choice, though individual circumstances may vary.
Are Tim Hortons shares eligible for inclusion in a Canadian RRSP or TFSA, and how are dividends taxed?
Tim Hortons shares (as part of Restaurant Brands International, QSR) are fully eligible for inclusion in Canadian registered accounts such as RRSPs and TFSAs. Holding QSR in these accounts allows dividends to grow tax-free or tax-deferred. However, as dividends are paid in USD, a 15% U.S. withholding tax may apply in TFSAs, but not in RRSPs due to the Canada-U.S. tax treaty. Check your account type for the most efficient tax outcome.
What is the latest dividend for Tim Hortons stock?
Tim Hortons stock, traded under Restaurant Brands International (QSR), currently pays a quarterly dividend of $0.62 USD per share, following a recent increase from $0.58. The next payment is scheduled for the standard quarterly date announced by RBI. This provides investors with a forward yield around 4%, reflecting the company’s commitment to rewarding shareholders through consistent and growing payments. Notably, dividend growth has been stable, aligning with the brand’s strong cash flow.
What is the forecast for Tim Hortons stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?
Based on the current share price of $64.08 USD, the projected values are $83.30 at the end of 2025, $96.12 at the end of 2026, and $128.16 at the end of 2027. These optimistic yet realistic estimates are supported by ongoing expansion into new markets, digital innovations, and steady growth in core product segments. The sector’s resilience and Tim Hortons’ dominant Canadian market position further support favorable long-term prospects.
Should I sell my Tim Hortons shares?
Holding onto Tim Hortons shares may be attractive given the company’s robust fundamentals, historical outperformance, and dominant Canadian market share in both coffee and baked goods. The stock trades at a reasonable valuation and has demonstrated resilience through menu innovation, digital initiatives, and international growth. For investors seeking stability and long-term growth, Tim Hortons’ consistent dividend and strong franchise model suggest holding could be a prudent choice, though individual circumstances may vary.
Are Tim Hortons shares eligible for inclusion in a Canadian RRSP or TFSA, and how are dividends taxed?
Tim Hortons shares (as part of Restaurant Brands International, QSR) are fully eligible for inclusion in Canadian registered accounts such as RRSPs and TFSAs. Holding QSR in these accounts allows dividends to grow tax-free or tax-deferred. However, as dividends are paid in USD, a 15% U.S. withholding tax may apply in TFSAs, but not in RRSPs due to the Canada-U.S. tax treaty. Check your account type for the most efficient tax outcome.
