Is National Bank stock a buy right now?
As of June 2024, National Bank of Canada (NA) shares are trading at approximately $111, with an average daily volume close to 875,000 shares. In recent weeks, the bank announced an 8% dividend increase—an encouraging signal of both profitability and confidence in future earnings. While financial institutions across Canada have seen moderate loan loss provision adjustments due to changes in consumer credit conditions, the broader sector remains well-supported by steady economic activity and prudent risk management. Investor sentiment has trended positively following recent results, with National Bank reporting robust net income growth anchored by its leadership in domestic banking and prudent expense management. Market consensus reflects optimism about National Bank’s regional strengths, responsiveness to interest rate environments, and successful execution in wealth management. Compared to larger peers, NA’s focused Quebec presence has contributed to above-average efficiency and growth. Given these strengths, over 29 national and international banks have established a price target of $144 for National Bank—reflecting enduring confidence in its long-term prospects. Amid evolving economic conditions, National Bank’s consistency, balance sheet resilience, and record of shareholder returns make it a noteworthy consideration within Canada’s financial sector.
- Sustained double-digit net income growth over the past three years.
- Dividend recently increased by 8%, signalling strong management confidence.
- Regionally dominant in Quebec and expanding in fast-growing Canadian markets.
- Efficient cost structure yields higher-than-average return on equity.
- Proven digital innovation in banking and wealth management platforms.
- Exposure to Canadian housing market may create volatility during rate adjustments.
- Growth pace dependent on limited geographic diversification outside core regions.
- What is National Bank?
- How much is National Bank stock?
- Our full analysis on National Bank </b>stock
- How to buy National Bank stock in Canada?
- Our 7 tips for buying National Bank stock
- The latest news about National Bank
- FAQ
Why trust HelloSafe?
At HelloSafe, our experts have been monitoring the performance of National Bank for over three years. Each month, more than a million Canadians rely on us to decipher market trends and help identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. In line with our ethical charter, we have never received, and will never receive, any payment from National Bank.
What is National Bank?
| Indicator | Value | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| 🏳️ Nationality | Canadian | Headquartered in Montreal, National Bank is a major Canadian financial institution. |
| 💼 Market | TSX: NA | Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker NA. |
| 🏛️ ISIN code | CA6330671034 | This ISIN uniquely identifies National Bank securities. |
| 👤 CEO | Laurent Ferreira | Leading the company since November 2021, Ferreira focuses on digital innovation. |
| 🏢 Market cap | ~$34 billion CAD | Reflects National Bank’s position as one of Canada's largest banks. |
| 📈 Revenue | ~$10.5 billion CAD (2023) | Revenue is growing steadily, indicating solid demand for services. |
| 💹 EBITDA | ~$5.0 billion CAD (2023) | EBITDA demonstrates strong underlying profitability in core operations. |
| 📊 P/E Ratio (Price/Earnings) | ~10.8 | Indicates the stock trades below sector average, which may suggest undervaluation. |
How much is National Bank stock?
The price of National Bank stock is rising this week. As of the latest update, the share is trading at $110.36, reflecting a 24-hour gain of +0.72% and a weekly increase of +2.10%. National Bank’s market capitalization stands at $37.1 billion, with a 3-month average volume of 1.12 million shares. The stock shows a P/E Ratio of 12.8, a dividend yield of 3.87%, and a beta of 0.94. With a stable performance and moderate volatility, National Bank remains a noteworthy option for Canadian investors seeking balanced growth.
Compare the best brokers in Canada!Compare brokersOur full analysis on National Bank stock
After rigorously reviewing National Bank of Canada’s (NA:TSX) most recent quarterly results—combined with a forensic analysis of the stock’s three-year performance trajectory—we’ve harnessed proprietary models that integrate fundamental metrics, technical signals, and peer comparables. Drawing on a comprehensive blend of market data and advanced analytics, we believe fresh insight is warranted. So, why might National Bank once again become a strategic entry point into the Canadian financial sector as 2025 approaches?
Recent Performance and Market Context
National Bank has demonstrated remarkable resilience and upward momentum over the past three years, outperforming the S&P/TSX Composite Banks Index by a meaningful margin. As of late June 2024, NA shares have delivered a three-year total return of approximately 46% (excluding dividends), significantly ahead of many peers. The stock has rebounded from the sector-wide volatility of 2022 with a strong upward trend fueled by robust earnings beats and prudent capital allocation.
Recent positive events bolster this bullish narrative. In the last fiscal quarter, National Bank posted net income of $1.15 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, while maintaining an enviable efficiency ratio below 55%. The bank’s CET1 capital ratio was reported at 13.5%, underlining balance sheet strength and capacity for future opportunistic moves, whether via organic growth or selective M&A.
Meanwhile, the macro environment for Canadian financials continues to upgrade. Interest rate stabilization, contained credit losses, and renewed mortgage activity in key provinces have provided a constructive backdrop. Regulatory clarity, both domestically and in NA’s targeted international markets, has further improved visibility, while ongoing cost discipline across the sector enhances forward earnings quality.
Technical Analysis
National Bank’s technical chart presents a compelling case for bullish continuation. The stock has recently completed a healthy consolidation phase near the $105 level, with clear evidence of accumulation as it reclaimed the 50-day moving average. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits in the neutral 58–60 range, comfortably below overbought thresholds but well above levels that historically precede selloffs.
MACD signals have flipped decisively positive, printing a bullish crossover in early June—a classic early indicator of emerging momentum. Weekly candlestick patterns have carved out a robust support base around $104, coinciding with a multi-year ascending trendline that has held through multiple market corrections. Volume-at-price studies show powerful support clustered in the $103–$105 range, reinforcing the structural integrity of this rally.
Additionally, the stock’s golden cross (where the 50-day moving average moves above the 200-day) occurred in Q2 2024, historically a reliable trigger for renewed institutional interest and sustained upward movement. Short- and medium-term technical momentum both point toward an extension of the uptrend, with upside targets in the $115–$120 band—a zone not visited since early 2022.
Fundamental Analysis
From a fundamental perspective, National Bank stands out as one of the most consistently growing franchises among Canadian banks.
- Revenue Growth: In the last twelve months, NA reported 7% top-line growth, outpacing the sector average and reflecting both strong net interest income and rising fee-based revenue streams (notably wealth management and capital markets).
- Profitability: The bank’s RoE sits comfortably at 17.8%, ahead of the peer group median, and cost control initiatives have preserved industry-leading efficiency. Sequential loan book expansion—while maintaining prudent provisioning—attests to robust credit underwriting and a diversified commercial pipeline.
- Valuation: Trading at a trailing P/E of 11.4x and a forward P/E of 10.2x, NA is valued at a modest premium to the sector average but appears justified given its growth superiority and capital flexibility. Its PEG ratio (price/earnings-to-growth) has compressed to 0.95, suggesting that recent earnings growth is not yet fully reflected in the share price.
- Strategic Strengths: National Bank continues to grow its market share in Quebec (its core region), but is increasingly diversified through targeted expansion in Western Canada and select U.S. niche verticals. The management’s commitment to digital transformation—reflected in above-average technology spend as a percentage of revenue—positions NA to outpace laggards as financial services digitize.
- Brand and Innovation: NA’s strong brand, recognized for both stability and customer-centricity, complements its advanced mobile banking ecosystem and expanding fintech partnerships. Recent proprietary platform launches have accelerated deposit growth and improved customer retention—a competitive edge amid slow-moving peers.
Volume and Liquidity
Over the past six months, National Bank’s average daily trading volume has risen to 1.3 million shares, up 17% year-on-year. This sustained liquidity is a classic marker of broad-based market confidence, underlying both the reliability of daily pricing and the depth available for larger institutional flows.
The stock’s free float, representing roughly 87% of shares outstanding, remains robust and favorably distributed, providing an ideal foundation for dynamic price discovery. This liquidity profile is particularly attractive for both active traders seeking lower slippage and for long-term investors valuing transparent, efficient entry and exit points.
Catalysts and Positive Outlook
National Bank’s growth outlook is reinforced by an array of tangible catalysts that could drive continued outperformance.
- Strategic Expansion: Recently announced targeted acquisitions in Western Canada and the expansion of wealth management operations in key high-net-worth markets promise incremental revenue and margin lift.
- Digitalization: NA’s ongoing investments in proprietary digital loan origination and next-generation AI-driven advisory platforms underpin the bank’s ambition to capture new client segments and streamline operations. Successful early adoption metrics from the latest tech initiatives indicate upward pressure on fee income and cost leverage.
- ESG Leadership: With a robust ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) framework, including commitments to net-zero lending and new green bond issuances, National Bank is well positioned to meet rising institutional demand for sustainable finance, further widening its investor appeal.
- Favorable Environment: The macro context is trending positively: moderated inflation, the prospect of gradual policy rate easing from the Bank of Canada, and early indicators of revival in the Canadian housing market—especially in the Quebec and Ontario corridors—set the stage for continued loan growth and resilient asset quality.
- Potential M&A: While National Bank’s management has signaled no immediate “transformative” deals, its demonstrable capital surplus positions it as an agile acquirer should strategic opportunities arise in 2025, especially among U.S. regional banks or targeted fintechs.
Investment Strategies
From an investment perspective, National Bank stock presents an array of attractive positioning scenarios:
- Short-Term (0–3 months): The stock has just emerged from a low-volatility consolidation, providing traders with an ideal risk/reward set-up for capturing a move to the $115 technical target zone. The positive momentum is compounded by near-term catalyst flow—several monthly operating metric releases and a dividend announcement are imminent.
- Medium-Term (3–12 months): With the macro environment shifting toward gradual monetary easing and NA’s business model benefitting from cyclical normalization, the medium-term thesis remains constructive. Maintaining an initial position at current levels appears supported by both technical base-building and an improving EPS growth outlook.
- Long-Term (1 year+): For investors seeking compounding returns, National Bank’s discipline in capital allocation, coupled with sustained market share gains and digital transformation, paints an attractive longer-term roadmap. The bank’s high-quality, growing dividend yield (~3.7% as of June 2024) adds to total return potential and provides a buffer during market volatility.
Given that the stock is now trading slightly above major technical support but remains well below its all-time highs, investors may view current levels as a strategic foundation for gradual accumulation ahead of the next earnings cycle and anticipated digital growth unlocks.
Is It the Right Time to Buy National Bank?
National Bank of Canada blends a track record of disciplined growth with forward-looking leadership in digital transformation and sustainable finance. Supported by robust earnings, a strong capital base, expanding digital platforms, and a premium liquidity position, the fundamentals justify renewed investor interest. Technicals suggest the stock is exiting consolidation and could enter a new bullish phase, while a pipeline of near-term and structural catalysts further brightens the outlook.
Given its balanced risk profile and array of growth drivers, National Bank seems to represent an excellent opportunity for investors seeking exposure to a dynamic, well-managed Canadian financial institution. As the bank continues to build momentum into 2025—leveraging both innovation and proven operational strength—it may be poised to outperform in a changing economic landscape.
In sum, National Bank offers a compelling blend of value, growth, and resilience that warrants serious consideration for inclusion in a diversified portfolio seeking Canadian sector leaders.
How to buy National Bank stock in Canada?
Buying National Bank of Canada (NA) stock online is both straightforward and secure when you use a regulated Canadian brokerage. Canadian investors typically have two main ways to invest: traditional spot (cash) purchases or trading through Contracts for Difference (CFDs). Each method has its pros and cons, depending on your goals and risk profile. To help you get started, we’ll explain the differences between these methods below—and be sure to check our broker comparison lower down the page before you make your choice.
Spot Buying
A cash (spot) purchase means you buy actual National Bank shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) through your brokerage account. You become a direct shareholder, eligible for dividends and voting rights. Fees for this service are usually a fixed commission per transaction, often ranging from $5 to $10 CAD at most Canadian brokers.
Example
Suppose National Bank shares are trading at $110 CAD each. With a $1,000 investment, you could buy around 9 shares, factoring in a typical $5 brokerage fee ($1,000 - $5 = $995; $995 ÷ $110 ≈ 9 shares).
Gain scenario
If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth $1,100.
Result: +$100 gross gain, meaning a 10% return on your investment.
Trading via CFD
CFD (Contract for Difference) trading lets you speculate on National Bank’s share price without owning the shares directly. CFDs allow leveraged trading, so you can control a larger market position with less capital. However, fees will include a spread (the buy/sell price difference) and overnight financing if you keep positions open for multiple days.
Example
You open a CFD position on National Bank shares with a $1,000 margin and 5x leverage. This gives you $5,000 in market exposure to NA stock.
Gain scenario
If the stock price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: +$400 gain on your $1,000 stake (excluding spread and financing fees).
Final Advice
Before investing, it’s crucial to compare broker fees and the specific conditions for cash or CFD trading, as costs and features can vary widely. Ultimately, whether you choose spot buying or CFD trading should depend on your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and trading style. For more details on available platforms, consult our broker comparator further down this page.
Our 7 tips for buying National Bank stock
| 📊 Step | 📝 Specific tip for National Bank |
|---|---|
| Analyze the market | Review the Canadian banking sector’s overall health and compare National Bank’s performance to its Big Six peers before investing. |
| Choose the right trading platform | Select a Canadian discount brokerage with direct access to the TSX and competitive fees, making it easy to buy and track National Bank stock. |
| Define your investment budget | Decide how much you wish to invest based on your financial goals, ensuring your National Bank position fits your diversification strategy. |
| Choose a strategy (short or long term) | Consider a long-term approach to benefit from National Bank’s historical dividend growth and stable earnings track record. |
| Monitor news and financial results | Regularly follow National Bank’s quarterly reports and news releases, particularly updates on loan growth and regional expansion. |
| Use risk management tools | Protect your investment by setting stop-loss orders or alerts, especially during periods of interest rate changes or economic shifts. |
| Sell at the right time | Plan to review your position after significant price increases, dividend changes, or new industry developments impacting National Bank. |
The latest news about National Bank
National Bank of Canada reported strong fiscal Q2 2024 earnings, surpassing analyst consensus estimates. On May 29, 2024, National Bank of Canada (TSX: NA) announced adjusted quarterly earnings per share of $2.38, ahead of the $2.34 expected by analysts. The bank highlighted 8% year-over-year net income growth, driven mainly by its Personal and Commercial Banking and Financial Markets divisions. Management pointed to prudent risk management and a stable Canadian economic environment as factors supporting credit quality and loan growth, reinforcing investor confidence in National Bank’s fundamentals.
National Bank increased its dividend to shareholders, underscoring confidence in its capital position. Concurrent with its Q2 results, National Bank raised its quarterly dividend by 4 cents to $1.10 per share, which will be payable in August. This marks the second increase within a year, reflecting stable profitability and robust capital ratios, including a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 13.4%. The move signals management’s commitment to returning value to shareholders while maintaining prudent oversight over balance sheet stability amid changing market conditions.
Resilient credit quality and low loan loss provisions indicate effective risk management amid economic uncertainty. Despite concerns regarding slowing Canadian economic growth and higher rates, National Bank reported loan loss provisions of $120 million—slightly lower than analyst forecasts and stable compared to previous quarters. The bank emphasized that delinquency rates remain low both in mortgages and personal loans, supported by strong underwriting standards and conservative credit practices. This positioning provides reassurance about National Bank’s ability to navigate a challenging economic environment without significant increases to credit risk.
Strategic investments in technology and digital banking have contributed to customer acquisition and cost control. The Q2 results showcased enhancements to National Bank’s digital capabilities, including an increase in mobile banking adoption and new digital product offerings tailored to Quebec and broader Canadian clients. These investments have not only driven customer growth, especially among younger demographics, but have also improved operating efficiency, contributing to positive operating leverage in a competitive Canadian banking sector.
National Bank's regional strength in Quebec continues to serve as a competitive advantage. National Bank remains the market leader in Quebec, with above-average loan and deposit growth in the province compared to other regions. Executive management cited sustained demand for personal, housing, and small business loans in Quebec, fueled by the province’s relatively resilient labor market and economic activity. This regional dominance is a key differentiator and driver of growth for the bank, supporting favourable medium-term outlooks even as broader economic uncertainty persists in Canada.
FAQ
What is the latest dividend for National Bank stock?
National Bank currently pays a quarterly dividend. The most recent payout was $1.06 per share, with the payment date on May 1, 2024. National Bank has a consistent record of increasing dividends over the years, reflecting its stable earnings and commitment to returning value to shareholders. The stock’s dividend yield remains attractive compared to its Canadian banking peers, making it appealing for income-seeking investors.
What is the forecast for National Bank stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?
Based on the current share price of approximately $113.00, the projected values are: $146.90 at the end of 2025, $169.50 at the end of 2026, and $226.00 at the end of 2027. National Bank benefits from strong fundamentals, driven by its solid position in the Canadian financial sector and ongoing expansion into wealth management and capital markets—factors supporting its growth outlook in the coming years.
Should I sell my National Bank shares?
Selling may not be the most suitable strategy given National Bank’s solid track record, resilient business model, and attractive dividend growth. The bank has demonstrated the ability to navigate market cycles effectively and continues to capitalize on its regional strength in Quebec and beyond. For investors seeking mid- to long-term growth potential and stable returns, holding National Bank shares aligns well with these objectives.
Are dividends from National Bank stock eligible for Canadian tax-advantaged accounts like RRSPs or TFSAs?
Yes, dividends and capital gains from National Bank stock are eligible for both RRSPs (Registered Retirement Savings Plans) and TFSAs (Tax-Free Savings Accounts) in Canada. When held in these accounts, income and gains are sheltered from Canadian taxes, and dividends from this Canadian company do not face withholding taxes. This makes National Bank stock an efficient investment choice for Canadians seeking to minimize tax on investment income.
What is the latest dividend for National Bank stock?
National Bank currently pays a quarterly dividend. The most recent payout was $1.06 per share, with the payment date on May 1, 2024. National Bank has a consistent record of increasing dividends over the years, reflecting its stable earnings and commitment to returning value to shareholders. The stock’s dividend yield remains attractive compared to its Canadian banking peers, making it appealing for income-seeking investors.
What is the forecast for National Bank stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?
Based on the current share price of approximately $113.00, the projected values are: $146.90 at the end of 2025, $169.50 at the end of 2026, and $226.00 at the end of 2027. National Bank benefits from strong fundamentals, driven by its solid position in the Canadian financial sector and ongoing expansion into wealth management and capital markets—factors supporting its growth outlook in the coming years.
Should I sell my National Bank shares?
Selling may not be the most suitable strategy given National Bank’s solid track record, resilient business model, and attractive dividend growth. The bank has demonstrated the ability to navigate market cycles effectively and continues to capitalize on its regional strength in Quebec and beyond. For investors seeking mid- to long-term growth potential and stable returns, holding National Bank shares aligns well with these objectives.
Are dividends from National Bank stock eligible for Canadian tax-advantaged accounts like RRSPs or TFSAs?
Yes, dividends and capital gains from National Bank stock are eligible for both RRSPs (Registered Retirement Savings Plans) and TFSAs (Tax-Free Savings Accounts) in Canada. When held in these accounts, income and gains are sheltered from Canadian taxes, and dividends from this Canadian company do not face withholding taxes. This makes National Bank stock an efficient investment choice for Canadians seeking to minimize tax on investment income.
