Should I buy Carnival stock in 2025?

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At HelloSafe, our expert has been analyzing Carnival's performance for more than three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of Canadians rely on us to interpret market trends and highlight the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. In accordance with our ethical guidelines, we have never received, and will never accept, compensation from Carnival.

What is Carnival?

How much is Carnival stock?

The price of Carnival stock is falling this week. As of now, CCL trades at $17.73 USD, down 5.26% over the past 24 hours and approximately 4.36% lower from last week. The company’s market capitalization stands at $24.28 billion, with an average daily volume of 25.49 million shares over the past 3 months. Carnival currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.46, does not pay a dividend at this time, and its stock beta is at 2.42, indicating higher volatility than the overall market. Investors should be mindful that this volatility can present both risk and opportunity in the current trading environment.

Our full analysis on Carnival stock

After a thorough review of Carnival Corporation’s latest quarterly results and three-year share price trajectory, our multi-variate algorithms—incorporating an array of financial indicators, technical signals, market sentiment data, and peer benchmarks—have developed a differentiated outlook for this industry leader. While past volatility has tested investor confidence, Carnival is now demonstrating meaningful improvement in its fundamentals, operational resilience, and long-term prospects. So, why might Carnival stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global travel and leisure sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Carnival (NYSE: CCL), recognized as the world’s largest cruise operator, has posted an impressive 19% gain over the past year, decisively outpacing many sector peers. This recovery is even more notable given the broader cyclical challenges in the travel sector throughout 2024 and early 2025. Despite a more recent pullback—down 5.26% in the last 24 hours and –20.24% over the past six months—the market context for Carnival is shifting meaningfully.

Key positive developments include:

• Record Q1 2025 results: Revenue surged to $5.8 billion (+$400 million YoY), with adjusted EBITDA up 38% and net yields up 7.3% in constant currency.
• Debt structure improvement: Refinancing $5.5 billion of debt, leading to $145 million in annualized interest savings, and a $0.5 billion overall reduction in debt.
• Industry accolades: Recent awards from USA Today, Forbes, and Fortune, reinforcing Carnival’s brand leadership.
• Raised forward guidance: Management’s outlook now calls for over 30% adjusted net income growth in 2025, underpinned by robust advance bookings and pricing at historical highs.

From a macroeconomic perspective, Carnival stands to benefit from:

• Sustained pent-up demand for leisure travel post-pandemic;
• Resilient consumer discretionary spending in North America and Europe;
• A global travel rebound, with cruise sector occupancy exceeding 100% and elevated booking visibility through 2026;
• Favorable foreign exchange and fuel price dynamics compared to prior years.

Collectively, these factors provide a supportive backdrop, distinguishing Carnival as a leader that is gaining operational momentum even amidst market volatility.

Technical Analysis

Short-term technicals currently indicate some caution, but also present potential entry points for attentive investors:

• Momentum indicators: RSI (14) stands at 35.14, brushing up against oversold territory—a level frequently associated with the development of bullish reversal patterns.
• MACD: The indicator registers at –0.09, a bearish short-term signal, but historical analysis shows that similar readings, especially after a pronounced drawdown, often precede reversals for oversold high-beta stocks like Carnival.
• Moving averages: The stock trades just below its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, a potential sign of market capitulation that often triggers new buying interest among longer-term, value-sensitive investors.

Key technical levels to monitor:

• Support: $17.24, $17.05, $16.78. Price stabilization at, or above, these supports may signal the exhaustion of current selling pressure.
• Resistance: $17.71, $17.99, $18.17. A break above the upper band could confirm a trend reversal.

Overall, while the prevailing short-term structure is bearish, the developing oversold conditions, combined with Carnival’s historical volatility (Beta: 2.42), signal the possibility of a strong technical rebound, particularly if supportive news or fundamental developments emerge.

Fundamental Analysis

Underlying Carnival’s recovery is a remarkable turnaround in its core financials and strategy:

• Top-line expansion and margin improvement
• Revenues reached an all-time record of $5.8 billion in Q1 2025, reinforcing Carnival’s ability to recapture market share and drive pricing power.
• Adjusted net income for the quarter at $174 million ($0.13 per share) significantly outpaced consensus expectations.
• Adjusted EBITDA soared to $1.2 billion, up 38% from 2024, reflecting robust cost control and operational leverage.
• Attractive valuation
• P/E Ratio: At just 12.46, Carnival trades at a substantial discount to the broader consumer cyclical and S&P 500 averages, offering investors direct access to a global leader at a modest multiple relative to forward earnings growth.
• Market capitalization: $24.28 billion, with a significant float ensuring ample market liquidity.
• Structural strengths
• A diversified brand portfolio spanning Carnival, Princess, Holland America, P&O, Costa Cruises, AIDA, Cunard, and Seabourn, allowing reach across North American, European, and Asian markets.
• Strong brand equity reinforced by recent “Best Ocean Cruise Line” and other prestigious awards.
• Strategic cost discipline and operational excellence, with occupancy metrics (103% in Q1) demonstrating enduring consumer demand.
• An expanding booking window and higher average bookings for 2026 and beyond, positioning Carnival ahead of industry recovery curves.

This fundamental profile, emphasizing tangible revenue growth, margin expansion, and attractive pricing, justifies renewed investor interest—and suggests that any recent price weakness may be more cyclical than structural.

Volume and Liquidity

Carnival’s trading dynamics further highlight its appeal:

• Trading volume: With an average of 25.49 million shares changing hands each day over the past three months, Carnival boasts exceptional liquidity—facilitating efficient trade execution for retail and institutional participants alike.
• Public float: At over 1.08 billion shares, Carnival’s float supports dynamic price discovery, making it an attractive instrument for both short-term traders seeking volatility and long-term investors focused on gradual appreciation.
• Market confidence: High sustained volume, even amidst volatility, tends to reflect continued institutional engagement and confidence in the company’s long-term prospects.

The liquidity profile provides a buffer against abrupt downside moves and supports price stability as new catalysts emerge.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several forward-looking factors crystallize Carnival’s bullish potential:

• Operational drivers
• Newly enhanced Denali Lodge and Alaska cruisetours via a $70 million multi-year expansion.
• Successful execution of its fleet rationalization strategy, including divesting less profitable assets such as Seabourn Sojourn, sharpening its focus on newer, more efficient vessels.
• Financial and market catalysts
• Projected 30%+ rise in adjusted net income in 2025, with net yields expected to stay robust (+4.7% YoY).
• Adjusted EBITDA forecast at nearly $6.7 billion, up almost 10% vs. 2024—a clear indicator of improved cost structure, scale, and demand elasticity.
• Booking strength
• Carnival is reporting record advance bookings for 2026 and beyond, booked at higher prices—a vote of confidence from the consumer market that will drive future revenue certainty.
• The booking curve is the longest on record, maximizing visibility for the management team and investors.
• External recognition and ESG momentum
• Named among the world’s most admired companies, which underpins long-term brand value and may be increasingly relevant to ESG-focused investors.
• Sustainability initiatives, including new emissions-reducing technologies and itineraries aligned with sustainable tourism goals, further enhance Carnival’s appeal to an evolving investor base.
• Analyst confidence
• Consensus price targets now stand at $26.56, forecasting more than 40% upside from current levels.

As these positive drivers come to fruition, Carnival appears well-positioned to embark on a new growth phase, amplified by its operational discipline, strong consumer demand, and a uniquely diversified global platform.

Investment Strategies

Given these considerations, Carnival offers compelling opportunities across multiple timeframes:

• Short-term strategies
• Monitoring for technical reversal signals near key support levels ($17.24–$16.78) could enable nimble traders to capture outsized moves as the stock rebounds from oversold conditions.
• Earnings season (and interim booking updates), historically, has catalyzed sharp upward swings in Carnival’s share price.
• Medium-term (next 6–12 months)
• Accumulating on weakness, when prices align with or below major moving averages, may allow investors to benefit from mean reversion, especially as operating metrics and debt refinancings further improve sentiment.
• Medium-term trade structures (e.g., swing trades) can benefit from volatility spikes around quarterly releases and major industry events.
• Long-term
• For investors with multi-year horizons, the current valuation, alongside Carnival’s improving fundamentals and elevated booking curve, represent a substantial opportunity to participate in the global leisure recovery.
• As strategic catalysts play out (ongoing debt reduction, branded asset optimization, and expanded ESG/commercial partnerships), Carnival’s enterprise value is poised to appreciate, especially if dividend payments are reinstated in coming years.

Positioning ahead of upcoming catalysts—whether operational updates, new product launches, or milestone earnings—could maximize exposure to potential rebounds.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Carnival?

To summarize, Carnival combines powerful operational momentum with a significantly improved financial profile:

• Robust revenue and EBITDA growth, outpacing both industry trends and analyst expectations
• Strengthened balance sheet through successful debt management and refinancing
• Award-winning brands buttressed by long-term booking visibility at record-high prices
• Technical indicators suggesting potential oversold conditions at current levels, setting the stage for a new bullish phase
• Prudent and innovative management, coupled with high market liquidity and compelling analyst price targets

While risks such as elevated debt and macroeconomic sensitivity should remain on the radar, the core investment case for Carnival is underpinned by improving profitability, sustained brand relevancy, and clear evidence of demand-led sector recovery. For those seeking opportunity at the intersection of travel, experiential consumption, and operational transformation, Carnival’s current set-up seems to represent an excellent entry point—supported by tangible fundamentals, technical positioning, and a clear path to upside.

As the global leisure travel cycle accelerates, Carnival stands out as a compelling option for investors looking to participate in the sector’s next growth phase. The convergence of improved earnings, robust forward bookings, disciplined management, and an attractive equity valuation makes now a moment worth serious consideration for renewed exposure in this iconic brand.

How to buy Carnival stock in Canada?

Buying Carnival Corporation (CCL) shares online is now both simple and secure for Canadian investors, thanks to regulated brokers. Whether you’re new to investing or looking to diversify your portfolio, you can choose between two main methods: buying Carnival shares outright (spot/cash buying) or trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs) for more flexible, leveraged exposure. Both approaches have their advantages and risks, so it’s important to understand how each works. For those seeking the best value, a comprehensive comparison of leading brokers is available further down this page.

Spot buying

Spot buying means purchasing Carnival shares directly on the stock exchange in your own name. Through Canadian-regulated brokers, you can acquire CCL shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), and you’ll become an actual shareholder with voting rights and eligibility for future dividends. Typical fees include a fixed commission per transaction, often around CAD $5 to $10, depending on the broker.

Important Information

Example: If the price of Carnival stock is $17.73 USD (about $24 CAD), and you have CAD $1,000 to invest, you can buy approximately 41 shares ($1,000 ÷ $24 = 41 shares), after deducting a typical $5 commission.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price increases by 10%, your shares are now worth about CAD $1,100.
Result: That’s a CAD $100 gross gain, or +10% on your investment (excluding currency conversion and regulatory fees).

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) let you speculate on Carnival’s share price movements without owning the actual shares. With CFD trading, you can use leverage—amplifying both potential gains and losses—and easily trade both rising and falling markets. CFD fees generally include a spread (the difference between bid and ask prices) and overnight financing costs if you hold positions longer than a day.

Important Information

Example: You open a CFD position on Carnival with a $1,000 CAD stake, using 5x leverage—giving you $5,000 market exposure.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If Carnival stock rises by 8%, your leveraged position is up 40% (8% × 5).
Result: That’s a profit of CAD $400 on a $1,000 stake (before deducting fees and possible currency risks).

Final advice

Before investing, it’s crucial to compare broker fees, platforms, and specific trading conditions to find the best fit for your needs. Whether you prefer to own Carnival shares directly for long-term growth or leverage price moves with CFDs, your choice should align with your investment goals and risk profile. You’ll find a detailed broker comparison further down the page to help you make an informed decision.

Platforms

Minimum Deposit

Discover

#1

Tier 1 regulation, including ASIC and FSA

#1

Star Trader

4.9

Minimum Deposit

$50

Discover

with our partner Star Trader

#2

Broker specializing in Forex and CFDs

#2

IFC Markets

4.8

Minimum Deposit

$1

Discover

with our partner IFC Markets

#3

Broker regulated since 2006

#3

Avatrade

4.8

Minimum Deposit

$100

Discover

with our partner Avatrade

Our 7 tips for buying Carnival stock

The latest news about Carnival

Carnival's Q1 2025 results delivered record revenues and adjusted net income significantly above analyst estimates. In its most recent quarterly report, Carnival Corporation reported a record revenue of $5.8 billion and adjusted net income of $174 million ($0.13 per share), both substantially outperforming prior guidance and the consensus forecast of $0.02 per share. Adjusted EBITDA soared by 38% from the previous year, reflecting robust demand and effective cost controls. The strong report led the company to raise its full-year 2025 guidance and projected over 30% growth in adjusted net income, indicating positive momentum that remains relevant to Canadian investors tracking large-cap North American travel and leisure equities.

Strategic debt reduction and refinancing initiatives have reduced financial risk and improved Carnival's outlook, earning a Moody's upgrade. During the quarter, Carnival accelerated its debt management, refinancing $5.5 billion of obligations and cutting total debt by $0.5 billion to $27.0 billion, translating to $145 million in annualized interest savings. Moody’s recognized these actions with a credit rating upgrade and a positive outlook, validating the company’s improved risk profile. This development is especially notable for Canadian institutional investors who weigh credit quality and leverage risk when analyzing global consumer cyclical holdings.

Canadian market access to Carnival shares remains robust through NYSE and LSE listings, with favorable tax treatment on capital gains for Canadian residents. Carnival Corporation’s shares are widely accessible to Canadian investors via established U.S. and U.K. exchanges (NYSE, LSE). While the company is not currently paying dividends, Canadian residents benefit from generally favorable U.S.-Canada tax treaties, which exempt capital gains from U.S. withholding tax and ensure that dividend taxation, if reinstated, will be managed under standard cross-border regulations. This accessibility and clarity on taxation support Carnival’s suitability for a wide range of Canadian investment accounts, including RRSPs and TFSAs, when permitted by brokerage terms.

Booking trends for 2026 and beyond are at record highs, driving raised guidance and medium- to long-term optimism for Carnival’s Canadian-facing cruise brands. Carnival has announced that its booking volumes are at historic highs, with pricing power strengthening for future sailings—especially notable for brands with a significant Canadian client base such as Princess Cruises and Holland America Line, which cater to Canadian travelers and operate popular Alaska itineraries. The company’s $70 million multi-year investment in Denali Lodge and Alaska cruise tours is expected to further stimulate demand from the Canadian market segment, aligning strongly with national travel preferences.

Despite a short-term technical downtrend and high volatility, analyst consensus sees more than 40% upside from current levels, signaling attractive long-term value. While Carnival’s stock is currently in a bearish technical phase, trading below all major moving averages and approaching oversold RSI conditions (35.14), the consensus analyst price target sits at $26.56—a 42% premium to present levels. Combined with a reasonable P/E ratio of 12.46 and evidence of strengthening fundamentals, this presents a potential opportunity for Canadian long-term investors to enter at a favorable price, supported by global sector tailwinds and Carnival’s strategic execution.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.