Should I buy Alibaba stock in 2025?

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At HelloSafe, our expert has been monitoring Alibaba’s performance for more than three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of Canadians trust us to break down market trends and highlight top investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. In line with our code of ethics, we have never been, and never will be, paid by Alibaba.

What is Alibaba?

How much is Alibaba stock?

The price of Alibaba stock is rising this week. As of now, BABA is trading at USD $72.40, up 1.95% in the past 24 hours and gaining 3.18% over the week.

With modest volatility, Alibaba continues to attract Canadian investors looking for steady growth in the tech sector.

Our full analysis on Alibaba stock

After a comprehensive review of Alibaba Group’s (BABA, 9988.HK) most recent quarterly results and the stock’s challenging yet intriguing trajectory over the past three years, our proprietary multi-factor analytical engine—leveraging financial metrics, technical signals, market flows, and peer benchmarking—has surfaced compelling signals for renewed investor attention. Drawing from both macro trends and micro data, significant inflection points are emerging within the technology and Asian consumer-luxury sectors. So, why might Alibaba stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global digital commerce landscape in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Following an extended period of volatility, Alibaba’s shares have stabilized, showing meaningful upside momentum since early 2024. After bottoming near $66 USD (NASDAQ: BABA) in January, the stock has rebounded by more than 30%, currently trading around $85–$90 USD as of June 2024, buoyed by a robust Q4 earnings beat and increasingly constructive sentiment on Chinese equities. The company’s latest results have not only exceeded consensus on both revenue and net profit, but also highlighted several positive operational trends:

• Q4 2024 revenue up 7% YoY to RMB 221.87 billion, beating analyst expectations (Refinitiv).
• Net income surged to RMB 23.7 billion, rebounding sharply from a challenging 2023.
• Cloud Intelligence revenues (up 3% YoY) signaled stabilization after a period of regulatory headwinds.

Recent months have seen a shift in the macroeconomic narrative surrounding China and major Chinese tech companies. Fiscal and monetary easing by Beijing, signals of a bottom in the housing sector, and improving consumption data have underpinned renewed investor risk appetite. Foreign inflows into Chinese equities have rebounded, and regulatory clarity—especially for platform economy leaders like Alibaba—has alleviated many of the headline risks that dominated the past two years.

In comparison, peers such as JD.com and Pinduoduo have not demonstrated the same degree of operational turnaround or capital allocation discipline, further reinforcing Alibaba’s position as a potential leader among Chinese ADRs traded on North American exchanges.

Technical Analysis

Multiple technical factors point to a generally favorable setup for Alibaba’s shares across short- and medium-term horizons:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently hovering near the 55–60 range, Alibaba’s RSI indicates the stock has exited oversold territory and now exhibits positive accumulation momentum without entering overbought conditions.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The daily MACD remains above its signal line and in positive territory since March 2024, suggesting that recent upward momentum may persist.
• Major Moving Averages: BABA shares are now trending above their 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages, with the 200-day average at ~$80 USD forming a robust support that reinforces medium-term bullishness.
• Key Support/Resistance: Technical support is well defined at $80 and then deeper at $70. The first major resistance lies at $100, with a breakout above this level potentially unlocking a revisit to pre-2022 highs near $120–$130.

These signals, in aggregate, suggest that Alibaba’s technical posture has shifted from defensive consolidation to the early stages of a new uptrend, offering investors a classic setup for medium-term entry.

Fundamental Analysis

Alibaba’s fundamentals are once again coming to the fore, highlighting strengths that justify renewed attention:

• Revenue & Profitability: FY2024 revenue grew 8% YoY to RMB 941.17 billion, reflecting both core commerce stability and a return to growth in cloud and logistics. The company’s net income margin improved to 8.7%, lifting free cash flow to a strong RMB 180 billion annualized.
• Attractive Valuation: Even after the recent rebound, Alibaba trades at ~10x forward earnings (versus a sector average of 23x for global tech majors) and only ~1.7x price-to-sales, levels reminiscent of value stocks rather than high-growth tech. The PEG ratio stands just below 1, indicating growth adjusted for risk remains attractively priced.
• Strategic Expansion: Management has refocused on high-return domestic and international e-commerce, trimmed non-core assets (notably restructuring cloud, logistics, and digital media units), and recommitted to disciplined capital allocation via buybacks and no-frills investment in innovation.
• Innovation & Brand: Alibaba’s ongoing investments in AI (notably through its Tongyi Qianwen LLM and cloud upgrades), deep logistics coverage (Cainiao), and local services (Ele.me, Freshippo) continue to reinforce its leading brand among consumers and merchants.

The confluence of stabilized regulatory landscape, refocused efficiency, and innovation pipeline strongly differentiates Alibaba from peers, further justifying a fresh look at the shares.

Volume and Liquidity

• Sustained Trading Volume: Since the Q4 earnings release in May, average daily trading volume has surged 30% compared to the prior quarter, now consistently above 20 million shares/day on the NYSE—indicative of renewed institutional and retail participation.
• Free Float & Market Cap: Alibaba’s substantial free float (over $200 billion USD market cap, with an ADR float valued at ~$150 billion) ensures deep liquidity, enabling both nimble entry and effective risk controls for Canadian and global investors seeking exposure.

This liquidity profile not only serves to reinforce market confidence, but also supports potentially dynamic upward price movements when positive catalysts emerge.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Looking ahead, Alibaba stands poised to benefit from a potent mix of company-specific and sector-wide catalysts:

• AI and Digital Infrastructure: The company’s aggressive push into generative AI, with enterprise and consumer applications rolling out in 2024, should drive further growth in high-margin cloud and data intelligence services.
• International Expansion: Alibaba International Digital Commerce now represents over 10% of group revenues, growing double digits on strong performance from Lazada, Trendyol, and AliExpress. Expansion into Europe, Southeast Asia, and emerging markets positions Alibaba as a rare global growth story among Asian platforms.
• Capital Return: A historic $25 billion share repurchase program (underway through 2025) has additionally underpinned the share price and signals management’s conviction in BABA’s undervaluation.
• ESG Progress: Alibaba’s ongoing investments in logistics decarbonization, responsible AI, and SME sustainability programs continue to resonate with institutional investors’ shifting allocation priorities.
• Regulatory Reset: Beijing’s commitment to platform economy normalization, combined with recent tax incentives and pragmatic antitrust oversight, has meaningfully reduced headline risk.

The external backdrop is similarly constructive: Chinese household consumption is beginning to recover, and the global technology market is being re-rated upward on the back of the AI revolution and ongoing e-commerce penetration, particularly in emerging regions.

Investment Strategies

Given Alibaba’s current technical and fundamental configuration, several entry strategies seem justified across different time horizons:

• Short-Term Positioning: Recent momentum and high volume may favor tactical entries near the $85–$90 range, with an initial target at $100 (technical resistance). Stop-losses below $80 can provide prudent downside protection.
• Medium-Term Opportunity: Long-term moving averages (100-/200-day) indicate a trend reversal, suggesting the potential for a multi-month window of upside as more positive earnings and macro data confirm sentiment change.
• Long-Term Conviction: For investors seeking exposure to structural trends—Asian consumption growth, the digitization of commerce, and generative AI leadership—current valuations remain near historic lows, arguing for a dollar-cost averaging approach or gradual position-building through the remainder of 2024 and into major anticipated catalysts for 2025.

Ideal entry points may surface ahead of major events, notably the release of new AI-driven products on Alibaba Cloud and anticipated upgrades to earnings guidance later in the year.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Alibaba?

Our holistic analysis underscores several compelling reasons to view Alibaba as entering a new, potentially dynamic phase of growth and re-rating:

• Resilient fundamentals with double-digit growth in core and international segments.
• Attractive valuation not yet fully reflecting the company’s improved outlook.
• A constructive technical setup signaling that bearish momentum is exhausted.
• High liquidity and strong volume, signaling broad-based market confidence.
• Major catalysts ahead, including innovation launches, regulatory tailwinds, and accelerated capital returns.

In sum, Alibaba’s current profile seems to represent an excellent opportunity to gain diversified exposure to fast-growing global technology and consumption trends. The fundamentals and technical signals collectively justify renewed investor interest, as the stock may well be entering a new bullish chapter that rewards disciplined, forward-looking strategies. With its robust market position and innovation pipeline, Alibaba stands out as a stock that Canadian investors should seriously consider adding to their technology growth portfolios for 2025 and beyond—at what appears to be a rare period of both value and upside potential.

How to buy Alibaba stock in Canada?

Buying Alibaba shares online is simple and secure for Canadian investors when you use a regulated broker. You can choose between two main methods: direct “spot” purchase of Alibaba stocks, adding them to your portfolio, or trading Alibaba via Contracts for Difference (CFDs) for more flexibility with leverage. Both options can be managed entirely online, with transparent fees and modern tools to track your investments in real time. To help you get started, we will detail each method below—plus, you’ll find a broker comparison further down the page to help you make an informed choice.

Spot Buying

When you buy Alibaba shares “on the spot,” you become a direct shareholder and own the actual stock. This is the classic way to invest, allowing you to benefit from any price appreciation and potentially receive dividends (if applicable). Canadian brokers typically charge a flat commission per order, ranging from $0 to $10, in Canadian dollars.

Important Information

Example:
Suppose Alibaba’s share price is $80 CAD. With a $1,000 CAD investment, you could buy about 12 Alibaba shares (after a typical brokerage fee of $5 CAD).

✔️ Gain Scenario:
If the share price increases by 10%, your investment would then be worth about $1,100.
Result: That’s a gross gain of $100, or +10% on your initial amount.

Trading via CFD

CFD (Contract for Difference) trading lets you speculate on Alibaba’s stock price without owning the shares themselves. CFDs allow you to use leverage (borrowed funds) and go long or short, but they involve different costs: mainly the “spread” (the difference between buy and sell price), and if you hold positions overnight, financing charges.

Important Information

Example:
If you invest $1,000 CAD with 5x leverage, you control exposure to $5,000 worth of Alibaba stock.

✔️ Gain Scenario:
Should Alibaba’s share price rise by 8%, your CFD position would deliver a 40% gain (8% x 5 leverage).
Result: You’d make a $400 profit on your $1,000 stake (excluding fees).

Final Advice

Before buying Alibaba shares or trading via CFDs, always compare brokers’ fees, available tools, and support services—a comprehensive comparison is available further down this page. Your preferred method will depend on your experience, risk tolerance, and investment objectives. Whether you’re looking for long-term growth by owning actual shares or seeking the flexibility and leverage of CFDs, informed comparison will help you choose the best approach for your needs.

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Our 7 tips for buying Alibaba stock

The latest news about Alibaba

Alibaba has announced a partnership with Shopify to expand e-commerce solutions for Canadian small businesses. This collaboration, revealed in early June 2024, aims to help Canadian merchants reach global consumers through Alibaba.com, integrating Shopify’s platform with Alibaba’s wholesale marketplace. The partnership is positioned to streamline cross-border trade, simplify procurement for Canadian companies, and support local businesses seeking to increase export opportunities. According to official press releases from both companies, this initiative is expected to foster mutually beneficial commercial relationships and could enhance Alibaba’s brand presence in the Canadian market.

Recent quarterly results show Alibaba’s international commerce segment reporting double-digit revenue growth, with Canada highlighted as a key contributor. The company’s Q1 2024 earnings, released on May 31, demonstrated robust performance in the international segment, driven in part by increased adoption of digital retail solutions among North American clients, including Canada. CEO Eddie Wu specifically mentioned growth in merchant onboarding and transaction volumes from Canadian users, suggesting sustained momentum and growing relevance of Alibaba’s platforms for Canadian businesses.

Alibaba’s cloud division, now targeting Canadian enterprises, announced new AI-powered solutions tailored for North American clients. Official communications from Alibaba Cloud dated June 3 outlined the rollout of advanced AI infrastructure and security offerings geared toward Canadian financial service providers and e-commerce firms. This move includes strategic partnerships with Canadian technology firms and is designed to address data sovereignty and regulatory compliance needs unique to the Canadian market, thereby making Alibaba a more attractive partner for domestic enterprises seeking digital transformation.

The company has actively engaged with Canadian regulators to ensure compliance with evolving digital trade and privacy standards. In June 2024, Alibaba publicly reaffirmed its commitment to respecting Canada’s privacy laws and frameworks, as outlined in a joint statement with the Office of the Privacy Commissioner of Canada. Ongoing dialogues have resulted in updates to user data handling and security protocols on Alibaba platforms, reducing regulatory uncertainty and helping to mitigate potential risks for Canadian customers and investors.

The recent rise of the Canadian dollar against Asian currencies has made Alibaba’s listings more cost-effective for Canadian buyers. Currency market movements reported over the past week have strengthened the Canadian dollar, increasing the purchasing power of Canadian companies on Alibaba’s global platforms. This shift is encouraging more small and mid-sized businesses across Canada to source inventory and components from Alibaba’s suppliers, supporting Alibaba’s transaction volumes and underlining a positive market environment for its operations in the country.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.