Should I buy Air Canada stock in 2025?

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At HelloSafe, our expert has been tracking Air Canada's performance for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users across Canada trust us to break down market trends and pinpoint the top investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes only and do not represent investment advice. In line with our ethical charter, we have never been, and will never be, compensated by Air Canada.

What is Air Canada?

How much is Air Canada stock?

The price of Air Canada stock is falling this week. As of today, AC shares are trading at CAD 13.87, down 1.39% in the past 24 hours and showing a 1.70% decrease over the last week. The company’s market capitalization stands at CAD 4.71 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 3.67 million shares over the past three months.

Air Canada currently has a P/E ratio of 2.94 and does not offer a dividend yield. The stock’s beta is 2.28, indicating higher volatility compared to the broader market.

Investors should be aware that while the stock trades at compelling valuations, its recent price swings highlight the importance of monitoring sector risks and volatility.

Our full analysis on Air Canada stock

Having thoroughly reviewed Air Canada’s latest quarterly and annual results, as well as its price dynamics over the last three years, our analysis leverages a blend of financial, technical, and competitive data, all synthesized through in-house advanced algorithms. With the company demonstrating both operational improvements and compelling valuation signals, the stock’s recent pullback has brought it firmly back onto institutional radar screens. So, why might Air Canada stock once again become a strategic entry point into the North American airline sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Despite challenging turbulence across the global airline industry, Air Canada’s share price, as of April 30, 2025 (CAD 13.87), is notably down from its 52-week high (CAD 26.18), reflecting a year-to-date decline of -37.66% and a one-year drop of -31.74%. The stock’s five-year performance is also negative at -31.47%, partly a residual effect of the extraordinary pandemic-era volatility and more recent sector headwinds.

However, beyond price weakness, the macroeconomic environment is turning more constructive:

• Passenger volumes have rebounded impressively, with 2024 marked by record revenues despite industry-wide capacity and cost headwinds.
• Fuel costs—a perennial concern for airlines—benefited from a decline to CAD 1.01/liter in 2024 (from CAD 1.12 in 2023), delivering a margin boost.
• The global travel recovery, especially for long-haul and premium segments, is accelerating, further supported by strong Pacific route demand (+25% year-over-year).
• Notably, Air Canada reported a CAD 2 billion debt reduction and completed a significant share buyback, canceling over 35 million shares—tangible evidence of strategic capital allocation.

Ongoing sectoral normalization and latent pent-up travel demand, particularly for Asia-Pacific and premium transcontinental business, have created favorable tailwinds for leading carriers with diversified international exposure such as Air Canada. As competitive activity moderates and cyclical pressures abate, the stock’s recent consolidation phase may set the stage for a new upward trajectory.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Air Canada currently trades just above its key support level at CAD 13.71, and near its 20-day moving average (CAD 13.85), suggesting stabilization after its extended decline. Although the stock remains below its 50-day (CAD 15.03), 100-day (CAD 18.11), and 200-day (CAD 18.16) moving averages—indicators typically associated with medium-to-long-term weakness—short-term oscillators present a more constructive outlook:

• MACD (12,26,9): The indicator prints a positive “buy” signal, highlighting the increasing probability of a short-term reversal.
• RSI (14): At 42.39, the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, providing balanced entry conditions.
• Stochastic %K: Near 68, in neutral territory, but with upside potential.
• ADX (14): At 28.92, the trend intensity is moderate and could shift rapidly with any fundamental catalyst.

Importantly, price consolidation above CAD 13.70, coupled with the absence of panic selling, signals a possible base formation. Should sentiment improve, resistance levels at CAD 16.03 and CAD 16.75 become realistic near-term targets. Trading volume also remains strong, reinforcing market liquidity and the potential for rapid technical momentum shifts.

Fundamental Analysis

Air Canada’s latest financials underscore significant underlying resilience and momentum:

• Record annual revenue of CAD 22.255 billion (+2% YoY) reflects robust travel demand and effective yield management, achieved on a 5% capacity increase.
• Adjusted EBITDA reached CAD 3.6 billion for 2024, with Q4 margin at 12.9%, demonstrating ongoing cost discipline despite capacity and input cost challenges.
• Profit margin stands at a strong 7.73%, and return on equity is an eye-catching 108.04%—well above industry averages and indicative of operational leverage.
• EPS (TTM) of CAD 4.72 and free cash flow generation of CAD 1.3 billion augment financial flexibility.

Perhaps most compelling is Air Canada’s current valuation profile:

• P/E (TTM) of 2.94 and forward P/E of 6.66 are among the most attractive in the North American airline peer group, implying significant undervaluation against both historical averages and global comparables.
• Price/Sales of 0.24 and EV/EBITDA of 3.44 further reinforce the narrative of deep value, with the market seemingly over-penalizing the company for short-term macro and cyclical factors.

Structurally, Air Canada benefits from:

• The sector’s strongest domestic brand, with robust alliances and loyalty infrastructure (Aeroplan billings +10% YoY).
• A strategic focus on premium and long-haul international segments, driving higher margins and incremental market share.
• Strategic fleet management (operating over 370 aircraft) and targeted expansion in rapidly growing Pacific and transatlantic corridors.

The combination of high-quality earnings, best-in-class loyalty assets, and a meaningful commitment to reducing financial leverage all support the thesis that the recent share price contraction is sharply out of step with underlying business fundamentals.

Volume and Liquidity

Air Canada’s trading volume averages 3.67 million shares daily, well above the TSX airline cohort, providing high liquidity and dynamic price discovery for both institutional and retail investors. The current public float formulation—after the buyback—provides favorable conditions for dynamic valuation rerating, as supply/demand imbalances at technical lows can lead to swift and forceful price responses.

Sustained and above-average trading volumes around current support levels are a clear sign of ongoing market interest and potential accumulation by forward-looking investors, reinforcing the potential for an inflection as catalysts emerge.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several forward drivers position Air Canada for meaningful upside over the next 12-18 months:

• New product initiatives and service enhancements: The company is intensifying its focus on premium products (now 29% of passenger revenue), as well as expanding global connectivity through new and restored long-haul routes—catalysts for margin and revenue growth.
• Aeroplan loyalty program: Continued double-digit growth in third-party billings not only deepens customer engagement but also underpins recurring, high-margin revenue streams.
• ESG progress and fleet renewal: Ongoing investment in fleet modernization and sustainability initiatives serves both cost control and reputation enhancement, aligning with major institutional investment trends.
• Debt reduction and balance sheet optimization: The CAD 2 billion debt reduction tangibly lowers financial risk and adds optionality for future capex, dividends, or further buybacks.
• Pacific traffic rebound: The recent 25% YoY surge in Asia-Pacific volumes positions Air Canada to capture significant market share as business and leisure travel patterns normalize post-pandemic.
• Favourable fuel pricing: Recent declines in fuel prices provide a near-term margin tailwind, further enhanced by the company’s effective hedging and procurement strategies.
• Upcoming earnings catalyst: The next earnings release, scheduled for May 9, 2025, is closely watched and may provide a strong upside trigger if recent momentum is sustained.

These catalysts, combined with a supportive regulatory environment and ongoing industry consolidation, supply a framework for material valuation rerating—particularly as the company delivers on its target of CAD 30 billion in revenue and a 17% EBITDA margin by 2028.

Investment Strategies

For discerning investors, multiple strategies emerge based on risk tolerance and investment horizon:

Short-Term

• Tactical entry: The confluence of technical stabilization around CAD 13.70, robust liquidity, and an upcoming earnings catalyst positions Air Canada as a prime candidate for a tactical short-term rebound trade.
• Quick technical upside targets: Resistance zones at CAD 16.03 and CAD 16.75 present logical profit-taking checkpoints on any post-results rally.

Medium-Term

• Volatility capture: Following the pronounced selloff and persistent sector-wide caution, mean-reversion dynamics could drive outperformance as sentiment recovers.
• Catalyst positioning: Investors can position ahead of known events—earnings, new partnership announcements, fleet upgrades, or regulatory relief—where positive news flow may drive re-rating.

Long-Term

• Structural value play: Currently depressed valuation multiples, ongoing debt reduction, and leadership in international and premium segments make Air Canada a compelling long-term hold for those seeking exposure to the rebound in global mobility and services.
• Dividend and capital returns: With strengthening free cash flow and a track record of returning capital to shareholders, future buybacks or dividend reinstatements could further amplify total returns.

Across all horizons, the stock’s low valuation, strong liquidity, and anticipated positive catalysts together forge a unique risk/reward profile rarely seen among large-cap Canadian equities at present.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Air Canada?

The combination of multi-year technical lows, record operational performance, and deeply discounted valuation create a textbook setup for a potential bullish re-rating of Air Canada shares. Key strengths—robust free cash flow, premium segment growth, a dominant loyalty program, strategic international expansion, and demonstrable debt reduction—underscore the company’s ability to navigate macro volatility and deliver shareholder value.

With the market pricing in a far more negative scenario than current fundamentals suggest, the stock seems to represent an excellent opportunity for investors searching for value in the Canadian industrials sector. While risks persist—most notably, near-term capacity fluctuations and cyclical headwinds—the overwhelmingly positive long-term outlook and high analyst target price (implying over 60% upside from current levels) make a strong case for renewed interest.

If Air Canada’s management continues prudent financial execution and captures upcoming catalysts, a new bullish phase appears increasingly plausible. For investors with a focus on actionable value and upside potential, Air Canada is a stock well worth serious consideration as a strategic position for 2025 and beyond. The intersection of technical support, operational excellence, and compelling valuation creates a rare window of opportunity that merits close attention.

How to buy Air Canada stock in Canada?

Buying Air Canada stock online is a straightforward and secure process when using a reputable, regulated Canadian broker. With just a few clicks, you can gain exposure to one of Canada’s leading airlines, directly through your brokerage account. The primary ways to invest are spot (cash) buying, where you own the shares, or trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow you to speculate on price movements without owning the asset. Each method offers unique opportunities and risks, which we’ll detail below. For a comparison of the best brokers for Air Canada stock, see our guide further down the page.

Cash Buying

A cash purchase means buying Air Canada (AC.TO) shares directly on the Toronto Stock Exchange using a Canadian online broker. When you buy for cash, you become a part-owner of the company and may benefit from share price growth or potential dividends (when declared). Most Canadian brokers charge a fixed commission for each transaction, usually in the range of $5 to $10 CAD per trade.

Important example

Example:
If the Air Canada share price is CAD 13.87, a $1,000 investment (minus, say, a $5 brokerage fee) would allow you to purchase approximately 71 shares ($995 / 13.87 ≈ 71).
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price increases by 10%, those shares would now be worth about $1,100 (71 × 13.87 × 1.10).
Result: That’s a $100 gross gain, representing +10% on your investment (excluding fees and taxes).

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) allow you to speculate on Air Canada stock price movements without owning the underlying shares. With CFDs, you can trade both rising and falling prices, and use leverage to amplify your exposure. The main costs are the spread (the difference between the buy and sell price) and overnight financing fees if you hold positions overnight.

Important example

Example:
You decide to trade Air Canada CFDs with a $1,000 deposit and use 5x leverage, giving you exposure to $5,000 worth of shares.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If Air Canada’s share price rises by 8%, your position would see a profit of 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a $400 profit on your $1,000 stake (excluding fees such as the spread and daily financing charges).

Final Advice

Before investing, it’s essential to compare the fees, features, and security of different Canadian brokers. Each platform can have its own commission structure, access to global markets, and tools for research or risk management. Whether you choose to buy shares outright or trade CFDs on Air Canada stock, your decision should align with your financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment strategy. For a full comparison of trusted brokers in Canada, check our detailed broker comparison further down the page.

Platforms

Minimum Deposit

Discover

#1

Tier 1 regulation, including ASIC and FSA

#1

Star Trader

4.9

Minimum Deposit

$50

Discover

with our partner Star Trader

#2

Broker specializing in Forex and CFDs

#2

IFC Markets

4.8

Minimum Deposit

$1

Discover

with our partner IFC Markets

#3

Broker regulated since 2006

#3

Avatrade

4.8

Minimum Deposit

$100

Discover

with our partner Avatrade

Our 7 tips for buying Air Canada stock

The latest news about Air Canada

Air Canada's Aeroplan loyalty program posted a robust 10% YoY increase in third-party gross billings.
This acceleration underscores Air Canada's ability to bolster recurring and high-margin revenue streams tied directly to Canadian consumer loyalty preferences. The Aeroplan program, a pivotal driver for customer retention and ancillary revenue, is experiencing strong adoption, particularly as Canadian households seek to maximize travel rewards and flexibility. Sustained loyalty program growth provides Air Canada with enhanced pricing power and valuable data insights, further supporting brand positioning in its domestic market.

The company reduced its net debt by approximately CAD 2 billion during 2024.
This substantial deleveraging highlights effective capital management and improves the company’s long-term resilience, which is especially relevant for Canadian financial analysts favoring fiscal discipline amid sector volatility. Reduced debt sharpens Air Canada’s competitiveness, lowers future interest expenses, and provides a buffer against potential macroeconomic or regulatory disruptions. This prudent financial move also positions Air Canada attractively ahead of its upcoming earnings season.

A record operating revenue of CAD 22.255 billion was achieved for full-year 2024, with particular strength in premium segments and Pacific routes.
The 5% YoY growth in premium product revenue—representing 29% of total passenger revenue—demonstrates effective product differentiation and sustained demand from higher-end Canadian travelers. Simultaneously, Pacific traffic surged 25% YoY, contributing to overall international revenue growth and partially offsetting capacity pressures in the domestic market. This international momentum, supported by easing travel restrictions in Asia and strategic expansion, signals a recovering global footprint anchored in Canada.

Cargo revenue rose by 20% in the fourth quarter and 7% for the full year, nearing CAD 1 billion.
This surge reflects Air Canada’s effective pivot to strengthen its cargo operations, a core theme as Canadian exporters increasingly rely on reliable air freight capacity. The continued growth of the cargo division, reinforced by strategic investments and route optimization, not only diversifies revenue streams but also provides a defensive cushion against cyclicality in passenger demand.

Technical indicators suggest a stabilization in the short term despite a protracted price decline, supported by a neutral RSI and a MACD buy signal.
While Air Canada’s stock remains down approximately 32% YoY and is trading below key medium- and long-term moving averages, short-term technicals (20-day MA and MACD) indicate potential for a near-term rebound. For Canadian investors, this stabilization is encouraging given recent sector turbulence, especially as the stock trades at extremely low valuation multiples, offering an attractive risk/reward profile pending further operational confirmation at the forthcoming May 9 earnings release.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.