Should I buy TFI stock in 2025?

Why trust HelloSafe?

At HelloSafe, our expert has been monitoring the performance of TFI for over three years. Each month, hundreds of thousands of Canadians rely on us to interpret market trends and highlight top investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. In line with our ethical charter, we have never been, and will never be, compensated by TFI.

What is TFI?

Important information

Note: EBITDA not directly provided, but operational income and earnings are declining this year.

How much is TFI stock?

The price of TFI stock is falling this week. As of now, TFI shares trade at $80.18, reflecting a 1.41% drop over the last 24 hours and a 5.15% decline for the week. The company’s market capitalization stands at $6.75 billion, with an average three-month trading volume of 581,433 shares. TFI holds a P/E ratio of 17.70 and provides a 2.24% dividend yield, while the stock’s beta suggests moderate market volatility. Although recent price performance has been negative, TFI’s strong dividend and its pivotal role in North American logistics may present opportunity for investors seeking value during industry headwinds.

Our full analysis on TFI stock

After an exhaustive review of TFI International Inc.’s (TFII) latest quarterly results, combined with a rigorous analysis of its three-year stock price performance, our proprietary approach—integrating fundamental metrics, technical signals, peer benchmarking, and macro insights—reveals new dimensions to this leading North American logistics firm. The synthesis of solid free cash flow, a progressive dividend policy, and a striking valuation reset raise a compelling question for 2025: Could TFI stock be positioning itself, once again, as a strategic entry point into the North American logistics and transportation sector?

Recent Performance and Market Context

TFI International’s journey over the past year has been shaped by shifting macroeconomic tides and sector-specific challenges, with the stock currently trading at $80.18 (NYSE) as of May 2, 2025, reflecting a significant pullback of -38.2% year-over-year and a -40.62% decline year-to-date. Notably, this correction comes after a multi-year period of robust outperformance; over the prior three years, TFI shares outpaced much of the Canadian industrial transportation sector, fuelled by successful expansions and operational efficiency.

The most recent quarters have been marked by softness in North American freight demand across the industry. Yet, TFI has managed to deliver 5% year-over-year revenue growth to $1.96 billion in Q1 2025, driven primarily by transformative acquisitions—most notably the integration of Daseke, which resulted in a 61% revenue lift in the Truckload segment. Management’s strategic focus on operational excellence is clearly visible in the nearly $94.4 million returned to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the latest quarter. Importantly, TFI also increased its quarterly dividend by 13% year-over-year to $0.45, underlining management’s confidence in sustainable cash flows.

On the macro front, key signals such as moderating interest rates, signs of stabilization in US and Canadian industrial activity, and the cyclical bottoming of key freight rates suggest that the worst of the sector’s headwinds may be receding. This creates the conditions for a potential inflection point, especially for well-capitalized leaders like TFI.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, TFI presents a mosaic of near-term resilience in the context of a medium-term correction. Short-term moving averages, notably the 5-day ($81.30, Buy signal) and 20-day ($79.14, Buy signal), have converged near current prices, suggesting potential stabilization and a nascent reversal after steep declines.

• RSI (14) at 49.80 (Neutral): Reflects equilibrium between buying and selling pressure—neither overbought nor oversold.
• MACD (-1.23, Sell signal): Signals that downward momentum persists, though the magnitude has moderated, increasing the potential for mean-reversion on positive news or sector tailwinds.
• Williams %R (-33.23, Buy signal): Indicates that the stock is exiting oversold territory, often a prelude to renewed upward movement.
• Support levels: $76.95 and $78.16—recent price action has successfully tested these, pointing to buying interest and technical robustness.
• Resistance zones: $82.18 and $83.39—breakout above these levels could trigger a stronger short-term rally.

While the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages remain above the current price ($83.17, $110.13, $126.56, respectively), highlighting a longer-term bearish structure, a clear base seems to be forming. For investors seeking tactical entries, the confluence of strong support and neutral oscillators points to improving odds for reversal-driven gains in the coming months.

Fundamental Analysis

The fundamental story behind TFI is built on scale, diversification, and disciplined capital allocation—distinct advantages in a cyclical and competitive landscape.

Key strengths include:

• Consistent Revenue Growth: Despite sector headwinds in Q1 2025, TFI posted a 5% increase in total revenue, outpacing many direct competitors impacted by broader freight volatility.
• Strong Free Cash Flow: Up 40% year-over-year to $191.7 million, providing financial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and opportunistic acquisitions.
• Attractive Valuation:
• P/E (TTM): 17.70
• Forward P/E: 16.08
• P/S (TTM): 0.80
• EV/EBITDA: 7.52
• These ratios compare favorably within the trucking and logistics sector, where quality operators often command premiums.
• Dividend Growth: The 13% annualized increase to a 2.24% yield at current prices compares attractively to peers and Canadian index averages.
• Operational Scale and Diversification: TFI’s footprint spans over 14,000 trucks, 45,000+ trailers, and 26,000+ employees, covering Less-Than-Truckload (LTL), Truckload, and Logistics segments across North America.

Despite facing margin compression in the LTL and Logistics segments, TFI’s strategic acquisition program has more than offset these challenges, with the continued integration of Daseke and the recent purchases of Basin Transportation and Veilleux Transit expected to deliver operational and revenue synergies. The company’s agility in shifting focus towards its most profitable segments highlights management’s ability to navigate downturns and capitalize on structural shifts.

Volume and Liquidity

Liquidity and institutional participation remain central to TFI’s appeal:

• Average daily volume: 581,433 shares—ample for institutional and retail investors.
• Float: A mid-cap float profile that offers both price responsiveness to positive catalysts and a favourable environment for dynamic valuation, especially as technical and fundamental conditions realign.

The sustained trading activity, even during market corrections, signals that confidence from sophisticated market participants hasn't eroded. In fact, significant buyback activity underscores management’s conviction in long-term value creation.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

TFI is positioned at the nexus of several bullish catalysts:

• Integration of Acquisitions: The Daseke deal is already boosting Truckload segment results. The upcoming consolidation of Basin Transportation and Veilleux Transit is expected to further increase market reach and operational leverage.
• Sector Recovery Potential: If North American freight rates and demand rebound in the back half of 2025, TFI stands to benefit disproportionately given its scale and recent cost rationalizations.
• Operational Efficiency: Management’s active cost management during the downturn has created leaner operations, enhancing margin leverage as conditions normalize.
• Dividend Growth and Buybacks: The upward trajectory of dividend payments and an ongoing buyback program provide reliable returns, signalling management’s confidence.
• ESG Initiatives: TFI continues to invest in fleet modernization and sustainability, catering to large corporate customers’ and institutional investors’ evolving criteria—potentially unlocking new client verticals.

From a macro perspective, anticipated central bank easing, ongoing North American industrial demand, and gradual normalization of supply chains add further tailwinds.

Investment Strategies

TFI supports a range of investment strategies, each aligned with the stock’s evolving technical and fundamental profile.

Short-term:

• Tactical positioning near robust support levels ($76.95–$78.16) allows for opportunistic entry, particularly for traders anticipating a technical bounce or positive sector data. The current neutral technical readings set the stage for outsized moves on incremental news.

Medium-term:

• Investors can gain exposure ahead of integration-driven synergies from the recent acquisitions, as well as potential macro catalysts (e.g., industry rate upticks or improving logistics demand).
• The stock’s attractive forward P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, combined with a projected analyst price target of $110.78 (a 38.2% upside from current levels), create scope for meaningful re-rating as sentiment and earnings expectations improve.

Long-term:

• The combination of robust free cash flow generation, continued dividend growth, and TFI’s scale-based competitive advantage argue for a core holding in a diversified portfolio—particularly for investors seeking exposure to North American infrastructure and economic activity.
• Strategic patience could reward investors as cyclical normalization and accretive acquisitions reinforce fundamental value.

Is It the Right Time to Buy TFI?

Synthesizing all dimensions—recent underperformance, constructive short-term technical positioning, demonstrable strengths in cash flow and strategic execution, and a deeply reset valuation—TFI International appears to offer a rare convergence of upside potential at an opportune moment. The company’s track record of navigating adversity, its robust capital returns program, and its leadership in consolidating a fragmented sector provide significant room for both near-term recovery and long-term value creation.

The presence of solid support levels, above-market dividend growth, and a compelling analyst price target reinforce the notion that TFI stock may be entering a new bullish phase, especially as cyclical and company-specific catalysts come into focus. For Canadian investors seeking exposure to a best-in-class operator poised to benefit from sector normalization and ongoing strategic transformation, TFI deserves renewed attention and serious consideration as a high-conviction opportunity.

In summary, TFI International showcases the resilience, strategic adaptability, and valuation appeal that can mark an inflection point for savvy investors—suggesting that the present correction may ultimately serve as an excellent entry opportunity into a North American logistics leader on the cusp of its next growth cycle.

How to buy TFI stock in Canada?

Buying TFI International (TFII) stock online is a straightforward and secure process when you use a regulated broker in Canada. Today’s digital broker platforms let you invest directly in TFI shares, either by purchasing them outright (“spot buying”) or by trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow for leveraged exposure. Each method caters to different investing goals and risk appetites, and both benefit from modern security standards and investor protections. To help you make the best decision, you’ll find a detailed broker comparison tool further down this page.

Spot buying of TFI stock

A cash (spot) purchase means you buy TFI shares directly on the exchange—such as the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX)—and become a shareholder, entitled to dividends and voting rights. With Canadian online brokers, typical fees are a fixed commission per order, often between $5 and $10 CAD.

Example

Let’s say the current price of TFI stock is $110 CAD per share. With a $1,000 CAD investment, after a $5 brokerage fee, you can buy around 9 shares ($995 / $110 ≈ 9 shares).

✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth $1,100 CAD.

Result: That’s a $100 gross gain, or +10% on your initial investment (before taxes or additional fees).

Trading TFI via CFDs

CFD trading lets you speculate on the price movements of TFI shares without owning them, using margin and leverage. With CFDs, you pay a spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and, if holding positions overnight, an additional financing cost.

Example

Suppose you deposit $1,000 CAD and select 5× leverage for your CFD trade. Your market exposure becomes $5,000.

✔️ Gain scenario: If TFI shares rise by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.

Result: That’s a $400 gain on your $1,000 deposit (excluding spreads and any financing charges).

Final advice

Before investing, always compare the fees and terms offered by different brokers, as costs and available services may vary significantly. The right option will depend on your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and whether you prefer to own TFI shares directly or trade their price movements using leverage. For more information, our broker comparison is available further down the page to guide your choice with confidence.

Platforms

Minimum Deposit

Discover

#1

Tier 1 regulation, including ASIC and FSA

#1Recommended Offer

Star Trader

4.9

Minimum Deposit

$50

Discover

with our partner Star Trader

#2

Broker specializing in Forex and CFDs

#2

IFC Markets

4.8

Minimum Deposit

$1

Discover

with our partner IFC Markets

#3

Broker regulated since 2006

#3

Avatrade

4.8

Minimum Deposit

$100

Discover

with our partner Avatrade

Our 7 tips for buying TFI stock

The latest news about TFI

TFI International's Q1 2025 results highlight robust revenue growth driven by Canadian-rooted strategic truckload expansion. Total revenue rose by 5% year-over-year to $1.96 billion, with a pronounced 61% revenue spike in the Truckload segment, primarily due to the acquisition of Daseke. This deal underscores TFI’s capacity to leverage scale and cross-border operations, with Quebec-headquartered leadership continuing to direct Canadian expansion. Importantly, despite sector-wide freight softness, TFI outpaced competitors in maintaining revenue momentum, cementing its leadership within the Canadian logistics ecosystem.

The company's free cash flow surged 40% year-over-year, reinforcing its financial resilience and capital flexibility in challenging times. Q1 2025 free cash flow reached $191.7 million, up from $137.2 million the prior year. This financial strength allowed TFI to return $94.4 million to shareholders, including $38.2 million in dividends—as part of a consistent policy recently enhanced with a 13% dividend increase—and $56.2 million in share buybacks. Such moves support shareholder value and send a positive signal to the Canadian investor community, even as earnings and operating income tracked lower due to cyclical market obstacles.

Recent acquisitions of Basin Transportation LLC and Veilleux Transit Inc. position TFI for strengthened Canadian and cross-border growth. Both businesses, acquired after the quarter’s end and set to bolster the Truckload segment, highlight the company’s ongoing commitment to strategic growth. Veilleux Transit, based in Quebec, enriches TFI’s local market presence, while Basin Transportation broadens North American reach. These additions signal continued investment in Canadian transportation diversification, innovation, and job creation in key regional markets.

Short-term technical indicators point to stabilization potential, despite the stock’s considerable pullback from earlier highs. TFI shares have faced pronounced downside, losing over 38% year-over-year and sitting near the lower end of their 52-week range. Nevertheless, bullish signals from the 5- and 20-day moving averages indicate that the recent price base around $80 may represent a short-term support zone. Neutral readings on RSI and buy signals from Williams %R offer further evidence that selling pressure may be abating, a relevant consideration for technical players in the Canadian market.

Analyst consensus and upside potential remain constructive, with a $110.78 price target suggesting nearly 40% advance from current levels. While experts maintain a hold/neutral view in light of industry uncertainties and earnings compression, the significant gap to the consensus target reflects a belief in TFI’s ability to capitalize on industry normalization. Canadian shareholders thus face a scenario of technically-driven stabilization, solid free cash flow, ongoing capital returns, and a potential for meaningful appreciation should trucking market demand recover and integration of new assets proceed successfully.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.