Should I buy Rio Tinto stock in 2025? The Canadian Perspective

What is Rio Tinto?

How much is Rio Tinto stock?

The price of Rio Tinto stock is showing a slight decline this week. As of today, RIO is trading at $62.64 USD, reflecting a -1.4% change over the last 24 hours and a generally weaker trend for the week amid broader market pressures.

The company holds a market capitalization of $101.07 billion with a 3-month average daily volume of 2.14 million shares. Rio Tinto currently trades at a P/E ratio of 8.86, delivering an attractive 6.38% dividend yield, and has a beta of 0.60, indicating lower volatility than most stocks.

With its stable dividend and moderate risk profile, Rio Tinto remains a compelling consideration for Canadian investors seeking steady long-term growth in the resource sector.

Our full analysis on Rio Tinto stock

Having thoroughly reviewed Rio Tinto’s latest earnings releases alongside its three-year share price evolution, our analysis draws on a robust mix of up-to-date financial metrics, technical and fundamental signals, and industry benchmarking—each weighed through proprietary evaluation models. The result is an authoritative perspective on how macro trends, resilient fundamentals, and fresh strategic catalysts may be converging for this mining giant. So, why might Rio Tinto stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global resource sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Rio Tinto’s shares, currently priced at $62.64 (May 19, 2025), have navigated a challenging 12 months, with a one-year performance of -19.17%. This retracement, from a 52-week high of $74.24, notably coincided with industry-wide volatility, particularly in iron ore and energy markets, as well as short-term weather disruptions affecting Australian operations. However, the stock’s resilience is evident in the context of a sector that has faced cyclical headwinds and where Rio Tinto’s multi-decade leadership, global diversification, and disciplined capital allocation have enabled it to maintain robust profitability and a compelling yield.

• Record bauxite and copper production in Q1 2025, signaling operational excellence and expansion beyond traditional iron ore.
• Completion of the Arcadium Lithium acquisition, establishing a new growth vector in battery materials and energy transition minerals.
• Strategic investments in high-grade iron ore (Simandou) and value-adding projects (Brockman Syncline 1), both progressing on schedule.

The macroeconomic overlay remains constructive for resource majors, with global reindustrialization, the transition to electrification, and a resurgence in critical minerals demand supporting long-term pricing for copper, lithium, and high-grade iron ore. Within this context, Rio Tinto’s ability to diversify product streams and capitalize on future-facing sectors stands out as a key differentiator in 2025.

Technical Analysis

Our technical assessment underscores a period of consolidation, suggesting a potentially attractive technical base for prospective buyers. Noteworthy technical parameters as of May 2025 include:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14-day): 51.1 – Implies a balanced market, neither overbought nor oversold, pointing to healthy price consolidation.
• MACD: 0.16 – Subtly bullish momentum, indicating the potential for a positive swing as market sentiment shifts.
• Support and Resistance:
• Key support: $61.30, backed by repeated test and bounce at this level, offering a logical zone for new accumulation.
• Resistance: $63.90, with sustained breakout potential should positive news flow or sector rotation materialize.
• Moving Averages: While RIO has recently traded below its 50-day moving average—reflecting recent macro softness—the presence of strong demand above $61 forms an anchor for potential rebound scenarios.

Short- to medium-term traders may note that the current structure presents a textbook setup for trend reversal, supported by steadily improving technical momentum and minimal drawdown risk relative to recent lows.

Fundamental Analysis

Beneath the surface, Rio Tinto’s fundamentals remain highly attractive on both absolute and relative bases:

• Revenue and Profitability:
• Underlying EBITDA for FY24: $23.3 billion, with strong operating cash flow ($15.6 billion) and robust net profit ($10.6 billion).
• Q1 2025 highlights include a 16% annual increase in copper output and a 12% gain in bauxite—a testament to targeted capacity expansion and operational discipline.
• Valuation Metrics:
• P/E (trailing 12 months): 8.86; Forward P/E: 9.37—both metrics screen as attractive discounts to the market and to key peers, offering a margin of safety and an appealing entry for value-focused investors.
• Dividend yield: 6.38%, far above industry averages and supported by a prudent 59.65% payout ratio—signaling sustainability even through commodity cycles.
• Strategic Positioning:
• Rapid progress on Simandou, Oyu Tolgoi, and the lithium business delivers both geographic and sectoral diversification.
• Continuing investments aimed at extending resource life and lowering all-in sustaining costs, especially in magnet materials and battery supply chains.
• Strong balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation, maintained through market turbulence.

Rio Tinto’s proven ability to generate reliable margins in multiple economic environments, while positioning for decarbonization-driven demand, is a critical pillar for outperformance ahead.

Volume and Liquidity

Liquidity remains a major strength for Rio Tinto, evidenced by:

• Average 3-month daily volume: 2.14 million shares, facilitating immediate execution for both institutional and retail investors.
• Market capitalization: $101.07 billion, with ample float supporting dynamic revaluations and robust participation across geographies and asset classes.

This depth supports investor confidence—mitigating liquidity risk and enabling timely portfolio adjustments as thematic catalysts evolve.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several forward-looking catalysts position Rio Tinto for renewed upside:

• Copper Expansion: The ongoing ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi, alongside new exploration targets, aligns RIO with global electrification and infrastructure spending.
• Battery Materials Opportunity: The formation of Rio Tinto Lithium—following the Arcadium acquisition—opens substantial long-term growth in energy storage, a sector set to benefit from accelerating EV adoption and global clean tech investment.
• Simandou Iron Ore Project: This high-grade development in Guinea is expected to drive premium pricing with a lower carbon footprint, attracting ESG-aligned customers.
• Strategic ESG Integration: Growing commitment to decarbonization, responsible mining, and stakeholder transparency enhances Rio Tinto’s profile among institutional asset managers.
• Sector Tailwinds: Regulatory support for critical mineral supply chains in North America and globally favorable commodity price cycles underpin sustained demand.

Together, these factors suggest a multi-year runway for earnings growth, re-rating potential, and resilient income generation.

Investment Strategies

Rio Tinto’s current setup supports several entry strategies:

• Short-term: A potential technical bounce from recognized support (~$61.30) and a MACD-bullish cross present immediate tactical appeal, particularly for those seeking exposure ahead of upcoming project milestones or commodity market rebounds.
• Medium-term: As production volumes from Oyu Tolgoi and lithium operations scale, quarterly catalysts—such as earnings and production updates—could drive periodic reratings. The stock’s attractive yield further enhances total return prospects.
• Long-term: Strategic diversification into copper, lithium, and other battery materials positions Rio Tinto as a future cornerstone of global resource security. The stable yield, coupled with low market multiples and a fortress balance sheet, makes a credible case for core allocation within diversified portfolios.

Positioning at or near current levels could offer optimal risk/reward, given technical support and approaching multi-year growth catalysts.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Rio Tinto?

Summing up, Rio Tinto combines an enviable blend of value, income, and growth—a rare convergence at this stage in the commodity cycle. Its disciplined expansion into copper and lithium, proven operational excellence, robust balance sheet, and sector-leading yield all point to a revitalized investment case as 2025 unfolds. While mindful of near-term volatility, especially in iron ore and geopolitical factors, the technical, fundamental, and strategic backdrop appears highly supportive of renewed interest.

For investors seeking quality resource sector exposure with embedded income and future-facing growth, Rio Tinto now seems to represent an excellent opportunity for consideration. The company’s resilient fundamentals, structural catalysts, and highly liquid profile suggest it may be entering a new bullish phase—making it a stock to watch closely as global demand for critical materials accelerates.

With its combination of low valuation, healthy dividend, and breakthrough projects coming online, Rio Tinto stands out as a strong candidate for strategic allocation in 2025—offering both stability and upside potential at a pivotal juncture in the global resource market.

How to buy Rio Tinto stock in CA?

Buying Rio Tinto stock online in Canada is both simple and secure when you choose a regulated broker. You can invest using two main methods: by purchasing actual shares (spot buying) or by trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow you to speculate on price movements without owning the stock. Both approaches can be accessed through user-friendly trading platforms that protect your funds and comply with Canadian investor protection standards. Each method has its own advantages, costs, and risk profile—details that we’ll cover below. You’ll also find a broker comparison further down this page to help you choose confidently.

Spot buying

When you buy Rio Tinto stock “on the spot,” you are purchasing real shares and becoming a direct shareholder. This traditional method is ideal for long-term investors who want to benefit from potential price appreciation and receive dividends—Rio Tinto’s current yield is an attractive 6.38%. In Canada, most brokers charge a fixed commission per order, typically around $5 to $10 in Canadian dollars.

Example

Let’s say Rio Tinto’s share price is $62.64 USD (approximately $85 CAD at a 1.36 exchange rate). With a $1,000 CAD investment, and deducting a typical $5 brokerage fee, you could buy about 11 shares ($1,000 - $5 ≈ $995, $995 / $85 ≈ 11 shares).

Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth $1,100 CAD.

Result: +$100 gross gain (+10%), in addition to potential dividends.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading allows you to profit from movements in Rio Tinto’s share price without owning the underlying stock. With CFDs, you can use leverage (borrowed funds), amplifying both potential gains and losses. Common fees include the spread (difference between buy and sell prices) and overnight financing costs if you keep positions open beyond the trading day.

Example

You open a $1,000 CAD CFD position on Rio Tinto with 5x leverage, giving you exposure to $5,000 worth of stock.

Gain scenario: If the stock rises by 8%, your position gain is 8% × 5 = 40%.

Result: +$400 gain (on your $1,000 stake, excluding fees), but remember that losses can also be magnified, and daily financing charges will apply for leveraged positions held overnight.

Final advice

Before investing, it’s vital to compare brokers’ fees, platforms, available features, and regulatory protections. Spot buying is generally best for those seeking direct ownership and dividends, while CFD trading may appeal to those aiming for short-term gains with leverage. The best approach depends on your financial goals and risk tolerance—refer to the broker comparison further down this page to find your match and start your investing journey with confidence.

Our 7 tips for buying Rio Tinto stock

The latest news about Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto delivers robust Q1 2025 copper and bauxite production growth, supporting long-term diversification. Recent quarterly results show Rio Tinto’s copper production grew by 16% year-over-year to 210kt and bauxite output reached a record 15.0Mt, up 12%, underpinning the company’s strategic shift toward minerals essential for electric vehicles and renewable energy. This operational strength enhances Rio Tinto’s profile among Canadian investors seeking exposure to clean technology supply chains and positions the company to benefit from the growing North American demand for critical battery inputs.

Rio Tinto’s acquisition of Arcadium Lithium and launch of its lithium division underscores its commitment to battery materials. The completion of the Arcadium Lithium acquisition this spring formally established Rio Tinto Lithium, signaling a strategic move into the fast-growing lithium market, which is particularly relevant to Canada’s ambitions as a battery and electric vehicle manufacturing hub. This diversification aligns Rio Tinto with Canadian government initiatives to fortify regional critical minerals supply, increasing the company’s relevance and potential partnership opportunities within Canada’s evolving resource strategy.

Dividend yield remains highly attractive at 6.38%, above industry average, with a prudent payout ratio. Rio Tinto’s current yield stands well above the basic materials sector median, appealing strongly to income-oriented Canadian portfolios, especially those seeking stable, foreign-listed dividend payers with lower beta exposure (5-year beta: 0.60). A payout ratio below 60% signals sufficient earnings coverage and resilience, which is further reassured by the company’s strong balance sheet and cash generation, making dividends more sustainable even as global markets remain volatile.

Technical and valuation signals suggest a support base near CA$61 and neutral momentum, inviting medium-term monitoring. While the stock is currently trading slightly below its 50-day moving average—a potential sign of ongoing consolidation—the 14-day RSI stands near 51 and MACD remains positive, flagging a neutral-to-bullish technical setup. The relatively low forward P/E (9.37) compared to international peers and firm support near CA$61 combine for a constructive risk-reward outlook, particularly as investors in Canada look for value entry points into global mining leaders.

Progress on major iron ore and copper projects, including Simandou and Oyu Tolgoi, reinforces growth pipelines despite near-term weather headwinds. Despite adverse weather temporarily impacting Q1 iron ore shipments, Rio Tinto reports on-schedule development at the Simandou (Guinea) high-grade iron ore and successful ramp-up at the Oyu Tolgoi underground copper mine. Both projects are critical for medium-term earnings growth and supply security, strengthening Rio Tinto’s appeal to Canadian stakeholders monitoring reliable suppliers of essential inputs for manufacturing, infrastructure, and technology sectors aligned with national economic priorities.

FAQ

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.