Should I buy Moderna stock in 2025?

What is Moderna?

How much is Moderna stock?

The price of Moderna stock is falling this week. As of the latest data, MRNA trades at $26.01, reflecting a 24-hour loss of about 3% and a weekly decline of roughly 5%. Moderna’s market capitalization stands between $9.8 and $10.2 billion, with an average three-month trading volume near 12.2 million shares.

Moderna shares remain notably more volatile than the broader market due to a beta around 1.9. Investors in Canada should be aware that current volatility may represent both heightened risk and opportunities for those with a higher risk tolerance.

Our full analysis on Moderna stock

Having methodically reviewed Moderna’s most recent financial results and evaluated the stock’s trajectory over the past three years, we have synthesized a thorough analysis leveraging financial performance, technical factors, market data, and peer benchmarks—all integrated via proprietary algorithms. The rapid evolution of the biotechnology sector and Moderna’s role as a global mRNA leader prompt a timely examination. So, why might Moderna stock once again become a strategic entry point into the biotech innovation space in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Moderna stock (NASDAQ: MRNA) currently trades at $26.01, representing a year-to-date decline of -38.36% as of May 19, 2025. This sharp retracement from historic highs is rooted in the post-pandemic normalization of COVID-19 vaccine demand and a sector-wide correction among biotechnology equities. However, it is equally important to recognize several recent positives that are starting to shift investor sentiment:

• Q1 2025 earnings showed a smaller-than-anticipated loss per share (-$2.52 vs. guidance of -$2.92 to -$3.18), signaling operational discipline.
• Moderna’s robust cash reserves and updated cost-cutting program ($1.5 billion in incremental savings targeted) reinforce the company’s financial resilience even in transitional markets.
• The macroeconomic environment has become more favorable for innovation-led companies, with declining interest rates and considerable public investment in life sciences in North America, particularly in Canada and the US. This environment creates fertile ground for clinical-stage biotechs to accelerate future growth paths.

Despite near-term headwinds from the declining COVID-19 vaccine market, Moderna’s operational execution, combined with an exceptionally rich late-stage pipeline, sets the stage for a new cycle of value creation—one not yet captured in the current valuation.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Moderna’s share structure and indicator profile present signals that are consistent with the early stages of a potential bullish reversal:

• RSI (14-day): Moderna’s RSI remains in oversold territory, often a precursor for a technical rebound, with a growing cluster of buyers observed around the $24.62–$26.00 range.
• MACD: While still marginally negative (-1.03 to -1.06), the downward momentum is moderating, suggesting that a bottoming process may be underway as the MACD stabilizes in tandem with flattening price action.
• Moving averages: The 20-day moving average ($24.74) is now converging with recent lows—an area of strong technical support. While the 50-day and 200-day MAs ($29 and $48.46, respectively) remain above the current price, a sustained move through $26.14 and subsequent break of the $27.61 resistance could act as a catalyst for short-term buyers and trend followers.
• Support and resistance: The $24.62 level has repeatedly acted as a floor in recent sessions. Price behavior around this area suggests a consolidation phase with buyers beginning to take initiative—often an early sign of medium-term accumulation.

This technical setup, seen in the context of Moderna’s deep value and pipeline momentum, is supportive of strategies aimed at capitalizing on inflection points within the innovation-driven biotechnology sector.

Fundamental Analysis

For all its recent volatility, Moderna’s fundamentals continue to reflect the hallmarks of a resilient, innovation-first biotech leader:

• Revenue and Profitability: Q1 2025 revenue came in at $108 million, with net product sales of $86 million. While this represents a YoY decline, it must be contextualized against the unwinding of pandemic demand. Importantly, net losses continue to narrow, surpassing consensus expectations and reflecting disciplined cost containment.
• Financial Strength: With a price/book of just 1.01 and price/sales of 3.43, Moderna is currently trading at one of the most compelling valuations in its peer group—at a substantial discount to historic multiples for innovative biotech firms. The absence of a dividend remains consistent with the sector’s focus on reinvestment and R&D prioritization.
• Cash Position: The company’s substantial liquidity allows for ongoing investment in next-generation vaccines and therapeutics, even in the absence of short-term cash flows from COVID-19 franchises.
• Platform and Pipeline: Moderna is a pioneer in mRNA technology, with an unparalleled platform that covers respiratory vaccines, oncology (notably through the Merck partnership), and latent virus vaccines. The structural strengths here—platform technology, IP portfolio, and rapid commercialization capabilities—enable not just resilience through sector cycles but also position Moderna for outsized upside as the next wave of products reach the market.

The discount applied to Moderna’s shares today appears to stem from temporary factors, rather than any deterioration in the underlying business or its long-term prospects—offering patient investors a window to build positions at fundamentally attractive multiples.

Volume and Liquidity

Moderna continues to exhibit robust market confidence through consistently healthy trading volume—averaging 12.22 million shares daily over the past 10 sessions. This sustained liquidity profile reflects the continued presence of institutional and retail investors, facilitating both tactical entries at technical lows and dynamic valuation adjustment as new data emerges.

Additionally, Moderna’s market capitalization (between $9.8 and $10.2 billion) and broad float ensure that position sizing and trade execution remain efficient even for larger investors, reducing the risk of illiquidity discounts or outsized volatility from single-order events.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

A review of Moderna’s product pipeline and strategic roadmap provides a long list of imminent and mid-term catalysts that could underpin a sustained rerating of the stock:

• Regulatory Approvals and Clinical Readouts: Multiple late-stage (Phase 3) programs are approaching key interim readouts and regulatory filing windows in 2025 and 2026, including candidates for influenza, RSV, cytomegalovirus, norovirus, and, crucially, the innovative cancer vaccine (mRNA-4157) with Merck targeting both adjuvant melanoma and NSCLC.
• Commercial Momentum: Seasonal launches of respiratory vaccines (COVID, flu, RSV) have the potential to create new and recurring revenue streams, especially as combination vaccines enter the market.
• Strategic Partnerships: Existing and potential collaborations—such as the Merck partnership in oncology—could multiply shareholder value via milestone payments, co-development, and co-commercialization agreements.
• Cost and R&D Efficiency: The aggressive implementation of cost-cutting initiatives ($1.5 billion targeted) is expected to generate meaningful improvements in operating leverage and extend Moderna’s cash runway even if revenue remains compressed in the short term.
• ESG and Innovation Mandates: Increased allocation by Canadian and international institutional investors to ESG-driven innovation funds further strengthens the investment case at current levels.
• Sector Tailwinds: Overall, the biotechnology sector is positioned to benefit from demographic trends, a supportive regulatory backdrop, and public health priorities that play directly into Moderna’s core competencies.

These factors align to create the condition for a revaluation, particularly in a market environment increasingly primed for positive surprise from underappreciated pipeline progress.

Investment Strategies

The current context supports a range of entry points and strategies across different time horizons:

• Short-term: The proximity to technical support near $24.62, combined with oversold RSI and stabilizing MACD, offers a technically attractive setup for tactical traders or those seeking to capture a technical rebound toward resistance at $27.61 and above.
• Medium-term: The company’s 2025 revenue guidance ($1.5–$2.5 billion, heavily weighted to the second half) suggests strong potential for price appreciation as investors reposition ahead of product launches and data releases. The next six to twelve months could see upward momentum from positive clinical milestones or revenue beats.
• Long-term: Moderna’s platform value is driven by its pioneering work in mRNA technology, broad pipeline, and a proven track record in rapid product development and commercialization. For patient investors, exposure at these levels appears well justified by the combination of structural strengths, sector megatrends, and the asymmetric risk/reward profile typical of high-growth biotech leaders at a cyclical low.

For all these strategies, initiating or building a position at current levels—near historic support and ahead of multiple substantive catalysts—seems to represent an excellent opportunity for investors with an appetite for biotech innovation and growth.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Moderna?

Synthesizing our rigorous analysis, several factors stand out: Moderna’s valuation is at a multi-year low despite clear evidence of operational improvement, outstanding liquidity, an exceptionally rich product pipeline, and the support of a resurgent macro backdrop for innovative biopharma. With technical indicators signaling potential bottoming, robust market liquidity, and a dense horizon of catalysts, the fundamentals justify renewed interest in a stock that could be entering a new bullish phase.

The company’s blend of innovation leadership, financial resilience, and multiple tangible growth drivers makes Moderna an attractive consideration for portfolios seeking both technology sector exposure and long-term alpha. For investors able to look beyond near-term volatility and focus on the transformational potential of mRNA technology, Moderna stands out as a name to watch closely as we approach 2025.

In this dynamic market, Moderna’s current valuation and pipeline momentum seem to represent a compelling set of circumstances for those considering fresh capital deployment into biotech innovators positioned for a pronounced rebound.

How to buy Moderna stock in CA?

Buying Moderna stock online is both straightforward and secure for Canadian investors, thanks to regulated brokers supervised by Canadian and international authorities. There are two main ways to invest: you can buy actual Moderna shares (spot/cash purchase) for long-term ownership, or trade using CFDs (Contracts for Difference) for leveraged exposure to price movements without owning the shares. Both methods can be accessed with just a few clicks on leading online trading platforms. For help choosing the most suitable option, you’ll find a detailed broker comparison further down this page.

Spot Buying

Cash (spot) buying means you purchase actual Moderna shares on the NASDAQ, becoming a direct shareholder. With most Canadian online brokers, you’ll typically pay a fixed commission per order, ranging from CAD $4.95 to CAD $9.99. Let’s look at a concrete example:

Example - Spot Buying Calculation

Suppose Moderna is trading at USD $26.01 per share (about CAD $35.50, based on an exchange rate of 1.36). With a CAD $1,000 investment, and a commission of CAD $5, you could buy approximately 28 shares ((1,000 - 5) / 35.50 ≈ 28).

Gain scenario:
If Moderna’s share price rises by 10% (to about CAD $39.05), your shares would then be worth CAD $1,094. Result: a gross gain of CAD $100 (+10%), not including currency fluctuations or other small fees.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading allows you to speculate on Moderna’s share price movements without owning the underlying shares. CFDs are financial derivatives that can be traded through regulated brokers, and enable you to use leverage (borrowed funds) to amplify potential gains—or losses. Typical fees for CFDs include the “spread” (the difference between buy and sell price) and, for positions held overnight, a small daily financing fee.

Example - CFD Trading Calculation

For example, with a CAD $1,000 deposit and 5x leverage, you gain market exposure of CAD $5,000.

Gain scenario:
If Moderna’s price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%. That’s a gross gain of CAD $400 on your original CAD $1,000 stake (excluding spreads and financing costs).

Final Advice

Before investing, be sure to compare brokers’ fees, platforms, available products, and account conditions. This choice will affect your overall costs and experience. Whether you prefer to hold actual shares for the long term or trade actively using leverage, your decision should match your personal investment goals and risk tolerance. For help, our broker comparison further down the page can guide you toward the best option for your needs.

Our 7 tips for buying Moderna stock

The latest news about Moderna

Moderna’s Q1 2025 net loss narrows, exceeding analyst earnings expectations despite lower revenues. In the most recent quarterly results published within the last week, Moderna reported a net loss of $971 million, which translates to -$2.52 per share. This figure represents a significant improvement relative to the previous year’s Q1 loss of -$3.07 per share and was notably better than analyst consensus estimates, which anticipated a loss of between -$2.92 and -$3.18 per share. While revenue fell to $108 million—a 35% decrease year-over-year and below expectations—the narrower loss underscores the company’s ability to control costs and demonstrates progress on its path towards profitability, which remains a positive signal for investors in the California market seeking companies showing operational improvement.

Moderna launches an additional $1.5 billion cost-reduction program, reinforcing long-term financial stability. The company has announced, as confirmed by its official communications this week, an escalated commitment to fiscal discipline by implementing another $1.5 billion in additional cost-saving measures. This move follows earlier restructuring and is intended to preserve cash reserves and safeguard the company’s robust balance sheet in the face of declining COVID-19 vaccine sales. With a continued strong cash position allowing for uninterrupted R&D investment, analysts see this initiative as a constructive step in maintaining Moderna’s competitiveness and funding its ambitious California-relevant development programs—especially as local research and distribution activities ramp up for new vaccines.

Regulatory and trial progress in late-stage vaccine candidates, including potential for combined respiratory vaccines, energizes pipeline optimism. Moderna’s pipeline has seen notable advancement in late-stage (Phase 3) clinical trials over the last week, particularly regarding its mRNA-1010 flu vaccine, mRNA-1083 COVID-flu combination vaccine, and mRNA-1283 next-generation COVID vaccine. These developments are of strategic interest for the Californian healthcare market, where demand for innovative respiratory vaccines remains robust. Regulatory filings or successful late-stage readouts could have a direct and substantial positive impact on regional product availability and, consequently, on the company’s revenue from the state.

Technical market indicators suggest a potential buying opportunity due to current oversold conditions. Technical analysis as of this week shows Moderna’s stock is trading with a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) in oversold territory. This indicator often signals a heightened probability for a rebound—particularly relevant for California-based institutional and retail investors looking for tactical entry points. Support is currently holding near $24.62, with resistance levels at $26.14 and $27.61, and with the stock price hovering near the lower end of its recent trading range, positive momentum on upcoming clinical or regulatory catalysts could prompt renewed investor interest.

Moderna maintains a visible presence and product utilization in California, supporting ongoing demand and public health partnerships. The company continues to play an active role in California’s vaccine landscape, distributing both Spikevax® (COVID-19) and mRESVIA® (RSV) vaccines to healthcare providers and public agencies throughout the state. These products underpin longstanding public-private partnerships with state health authorities, facilitating broad immunization campaigns and ensuring that California residents enjoy early access to the latest mRNA-based interventions. Any expansion in approved indications, successful trial results, or new collaborations could therefore reinforce Moderna’s regional relevance and revenue potential within California.

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P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.