Is Canadian Natural Resources stock a buy right now?
As of the end of April 2025, Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) is trading around $39.56 CAD on the Toronto Stock Exchange, with healthy average daily volumes near 15 million shares—a reflection of active market engagement. Despite a challenging year, with CNQ’s share price down from prior highs due to broader oil price volatility, the company’s fundamentals remain robust. Notably, CNQ recently closed major acquisitions, bolstering its presence in both oil sands and light oil, and achieved record production in the first months of 2025. In March, the company increased its dividend for an impressive 25th consecutive year, reaffirming a strong commitment to shareholder returns. Constructive market sentiment is underpinned by consistently positive financial results, resilient operating costs, and a solid reserves base, even as attention remains on evolving tariffs and regulatory developments. Within the Canadian energy sector, CNQ stands out for production growth and capital discipline, providing stability in a volatile market. Analyst consensus from more than 32 major national and international banks estimates a target price of $51.50 CAD, highlighting a constructive outlook for retail investors evaluating entry. Canadian Natural Resources appears well-positioned for those seeking long-term value in Canada’s energy sector.
- Industry-leading operating costs, enabling better profitability through market cycles.
- 25 consecutive years of dividend growth, offering robust shareholder returns.
- Record-setting oil production capacity and organic expansion projects underway.
- Strong balance sheet with low leverage and disciplined capital allocation.
- Diverse, long-life, low-decline asset base across major Canadian plays.
- Stock performance remains sensitive to oil price volatility and commodity cycles.
- Upcoming maintenance and potential regulatory changes may temporarily affect production or costs.
- What is Canadian Natural Resources?
- How much is Canadian Natural Resources stock?
- Our full analysis on Canadian Natural Resources </b>stock
- How to buy Canadian Natural Resources stock in Canada?
- Our 7 tips for buying Canadian Natural Resources stock
- The latest news about Canadian Natural Resources
- FAQ
Why trust HelloSafe?
At HelloSafe, our expert has been monitoring the performance of Canadian Natural Resources for over three years. Each month, hundreds of thousands of users across Canada rely on us to decode market trends and highlight the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided solely for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. In line with our ethical charter, we have never been, and never will be, compensated by Canadian Natural Resources.
What is Canadian Natural Resources?
| Indicator | Value | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| 🏳️ Nationality | Canadian | Based in Calgary, Canada; subject to Canadian regulations and energy policy. |
| 💼 Market | TSX: CNQ, NYSE: CNQ | Dual-listed, providing liquidity for both Canadian and U.S. investors. |
| 🏛️ ISIN code | CA1363851017 | Unique identifier for the company on international securities markets. |
| 👤 CEO | Scott G. Stauth | Newly appointed CEO as of 2024, succeeding Tim S. McKay; brings operational expertise. |
| 🏢 Market cap | CAD 83.05 billion (USD 60.23 billion) | Large-cap status reflects its dominant position in Canada's oil and gas sector. |
| 📈 Revenue | CAD 14.9 billion (2024 adjusted funds flow) | Stable revenue base from record production, signals strong operational performance. |
| 💹 EBITDA | Not disclosed (see funds flow: CAD 14.9B) | High adjusted funds flow supports dividends and ongoing project investments. |
| 📊 P/E Ratio | 13.88 (TTM) | Valuation is moderate compared to peers; suggests balance of risk and opportunity. |
How much is Canadian Natural Resources stock?
The price of Canadian Natural Resources stock is falling this week. As of today, the stock is trading at $39.56 CAD, representing a 24-hour decline of 2.44% and a weekly loss of 1.24%.
| Market Capitalization | Average 3-Month Daily Volume | P/E Ratio | Dividend Yield | Beta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $83.05 billion CAD | 14,961,265 shares | 13.88 | 5.80% | 1.54 |
Canadian Natural Resources is currently valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.88, pays a robust 5.80% dividend yield, and has a beta of 1.54, reflecting above-average volatility.
Investors should note that while recent performance has softened, the company’s fundamentals and steady dividend growth offer compelling potential for long-term portfolios.
Compare the best brokers in Canada!Compare brokersOur full analysis on Canadian Natural Resources stock
We have conducted a comprehensive review of Canadian Natural Resources’ latest financial results and examined the company’s share price trajectory over the past three years. By integrating financial KPIs, technical signals, market data, and peer benchmarks—filtered through our proprietary models—we have built a multidimensional perspective on the stock’s intrinsic strengths. So, why might Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) emerge as a strategic entry point into the Canadian energy sector as we head into 2025?
Recent Performance and Market Context
After a period of outperformance, Canadian Natural Resources stock has seen a marked correction in recent quarters, closing at $39.56 CAD on the TSX as of April 30, 2025—a year-over-year decline of 24.16%. This decline reflects sector-wide volatility driven largely by global oil price fluctuations rather than company-specific shortcomings. Despite this, CNQ has demonstrated a remarkable ability to weather market turbulence, underscored by several key positive developments in its operational and financial trajectory.
Notably, the company’s Q4 2024 financials presented a strong beat versus expectations, highlighting industry-leading cost control, robust production growth, and continued margin expansion. Strategic acquisitions—including Chevron’s Alberta assets and a landmark asset swap with Shell—have further diversified and strengthened CNQ’s portfolio at a time when asset quality and operational leverage are increasingly prized by investors. Moreover, the Board’s decision to raise the quarterly dividend by 4% cements a now 25-year track record of uninterrupted dividend growth—a rare feat in the energy sector, reinforcing management’s confidence in future cash flow generation.
The macro backdrop adds another layer of support. While crude prices remain volatile, structural demand for oil and refined products is expected to remain robust as major economies transition to lower-emissions energy sources over the coming decade. CNQ’s proven ability to operate efficiently through various commodity cycles positions it as a best-in-class operator for investors seeking both yield and growth in the energy space.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, Canadian Natural Resources’ current share price dynamics may offer an attractively timed entry point. The stock trades below its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, reflecting a well-established downtrend and, perhaps more importantly, a potential case of cyclical overselling.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI 14-day): 38.40, approaching classic oversold territory, typically a precursor to a technical rebound for large-cap names in stable sectors.
- MACD (12,26,9): -0.33, signaling persistent bearish momentum, but with potential for trend reversal as broader energy sentiment improves.
- Key Support Level: $38.85 CAD—current price action hovers just above this robust support floor, suggesting limited downside barring unexpected sector shocks.
- Key Resistance Level: $40.30 CAD—a breakout above this threshold could signal renewed upside momentum.
The presence of a “death cross” (50-day moving average trading below the 200-day) confirms recent bearishness but also historically marks late-stage corrections in high-quality, cash-generating stocks. With daily volume for CNQ averaging close to 15 million shares on the TSX—well above long-run averages—market participants appear poised for a decisive turn.
While short-term indicators remain guarded, a stabilization above support coupled with growing volume could serve as the technical catalyst for a bullish reversal heading into the second half of 2025.
Fundamental Analysis
On the fundamentals, CNQ’s latest results reveal a business firing on all cylinders, even amid commodity headwinds:
- Revenue and Profitability: Adjusted funds flow in 2024 reached CAD 14.9 billion, supporting net earnings of CAD 6.1 billion and adjusted net earnings of CAD 7.4 billion. These results, exceeding analyst forecasts, were powered by record output of 1,363,496 BOE/d—a 2% annual increase.
- Cost Leadership: Operating costs in oil sands mining and upgrading fell 6% year-over-year to CAD 22.88/bbl, underscoring CNQ’s status as a lowest-cost producer and providing ample margin protection in volatile markets. Breakeven costs sit comfortably in the low to mid-$40s per barrel.
- Balance Sheet Strength: Key metrics—Debt to EBITDA at 1.1x and Debt to Book Capitalization at 32%—reflect prudent capital management and flexibility for incremental investment or further shareholder returns.
- Valuation: The current P/E at 13.88x (TTM) appears attractive, especially considering a multi-decade reserve life, proven production growth, and embedded growth catalysts. When coupled with a sector-leading 5.8% dividend yield and a +30% analyst price target upside, the risk-reward calculus seems heavily tilted in favour of value-oriented investors.
- Structural Strengths:
- Diversified long-life, low-decline asset base with a 33-year proved reserves life index.
- Market share leadership in core oil sands and thermal in situ plays.
- Enduring brand and governance reputation illustrated by 25 consecutive years of dividend hikes and industry-best cost discipline.
Volume and Liquidity
Consistent, elevated trading volume underpins high liquidity for CNQ stock. With an average daily turnover of nearly 15 million shares (TSX) and more than 7 million shares (NYSE), CNQ stands among the most actively traded energy names in North America. This liquidity facilitates:
- Efficient portfolio rebalancing by institutional and retail investors alike.
- A dynamic public float that supports price discovery and narrows the bid-ask spread.
- Swift capitalization on news-driven momentum, providing opportunity for both medium-term accumulation and nimble tactical positioning.
Sustained volume at these levels is often seen as a sign of strong market confidence, especially when supported by robust operational and financial metrics.
Catalysts and Positive Outlook
Looking forward, CNQ’s multi-pronged growth strategy picks up speed thanks to several powerful catalysts:
- Strategic Acquisitions: Completion of the Chevron asset purchase and the asset swap with Shell not only immediately boost production capacity but enable further optimization of high-margin operations in the Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading segment.
- Record Production Metrics: With February 2025 marking an all-time high in gross monthly production (640,000 bbl/d), the stage is set for upward earnings revisions should operational momentum endure.
- Pipeline Capacity Expansion: Enhanced commitments on the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline (now at 169,000 bbl/d) unlock new export routes, diversify revenue streams, and reduce pricing risk associated with Western Canadian Select (WCS) discounts.
- Thermal In Situ Growth Projects: CNQ will add approximately 70,000 bbl/d of processing capacity, with multiple projects scheduled for ramp-up in the 2025-2026 calendar. This underpins forecasted organic growth regardless of short-term oil price gyrations.
- ESG Initiatives and Innovation: The swap with Shell includes participation in the Quest Carbon Capture and Storage facilities, sharpening CNQ’s environmental credentials and potential regulatory flexibility as ESG imperatives gain salience.
- Shareholder Returns: The March 2025 dividend hike, against a backdrop of robust buyback activity, highlights CNQ’s commitment to rewarding investors while maintaining a fortress balance sheet.
- Regulatory and Market Trends: Any stabilization or moderate rebound in global crude prices, a possible easing of US tariff headwinds, or improved North American oil demand could act as powerful re-rating catalysts.
Collectively, these drivers reinforce a positive long-term outlook, with CNQ well-placed to capitalize on both cyclical rebounds and structural energy demand growth.
Investment Strategies
The confluence of recent technical weakness and enduring fundamental strength presents a rare confluence for a variety of investment horizons:
- Short-Term:
- The stock’s proximity to key support at $38.85 CAD—coupled with oversold technical signals—suggests potential for a tactical bounce, particularly as production figures and cost metrics continue to surprise on the upside.
- Traders seeking nimble entries could consider positions ahead of forthcoming production updates or sector-wide oil price rallies.
- Medium-Term:
- Completion of ongoing growth projects, the dividends’ annualized increase, and a likely recovery in oil prices may drive share price re-rating toward the consensus CAD 50.42 target.
- Investors with a 6-18 month horizon could benefit from both capital gains and above-market income.
- Long-Term:
- For retirement-oriented or defensive portfolios, CNQ’s 25-year dividend growth streak, low-decline asset foundation, and sector-best costs support a strong case for patient, buy-and-hold positioning.
- The company’s robust free cash flow outlook and prudent capital allocation should ensure resilience across multiple energy cycles.
In all scenarios, CNQ’s current valuation and technical positioning suggest that present levels represent an entry point with a compelling margin of safety, especially for those prioritizing yield and inflation-hedged growth.
Is It the Right Time to Buy Canadian Natural Resources?
Bringing together all strands of this analysis, Canadian Natural Resources stands out as a disciplined, best-in-class operator in a sector poised for renewed interest as global energy markets rebalance. Key strengths—record production, relentless cost efficiency, a diversified asset base, conservative financial management, and market-leading shareholder returns—combine to build a powerful investment case.
With the share price hovering near technical support, attractive yield metrics, and valuation multiples well below historical averages, the stock appears to be entering a new bullish phase, offering dynamic upside potential for Canadian and international investors alike.
While commodity volatility and regulatory changes will always require careful monitoring, CNQ’s unique strengths and recent catalysts seem to offer an excellent opportunity for those seeking long-term exposure to energy sector growth and stable income streams. As production growth accelerates and new assets integrate, the stock may very well redefine its upward trajectory in 2025.
For investors focused on quality, yield, and disciplined growth in the Canadian market, Canadian Natural Resources offers a compelling combination of value and opportunity that richly deserves renewed attention.
How to buy Canadian Natural Resources stock in Canada?
Buying Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) shares online is straightforward and secure when you use a regulated Canadian broker. Investors have two main options: traditional spot buying, where you purchase actual shares for long-term ownership, or trading via Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allows for flexible strategies with leverage. Both methods can be easily accessed online, offering transparency and protection due to strict regulations in Canada. Below, you'll find a detailed comparison of these two approaches—as well as a broker comparison further down the page to help you choose the best platform for your needs.
Spot Buying
A spot or "cash" purchase of Canadian Natural Resources stock means buying physical shares through a broker on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: CNQ.TO), denominated in Canadian dollars (CAD). This approach is ideal if you want to own the company directly, enjoy potential dividends (currently a healthy 5.8% yield), and benefit from any increases in share price over time. Typical fees include a fixed commission per trade, which often ranges from CAD $5 to $10, depending on the broker.
Important information
Example: If the Canadian Natural Resources share price is $39.56 CAD, a $1,000 CAD investment (minus an estimated $5 commission) allows you to purchase roughly 25 shares ($995 / $39.56 ≈ 25 shares).
✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your holdings would now be worth about $1,100 (25 shares × $43.52 CAD).
Result: +$100 gross gain, representing +10% on your initial investment.
Trading via CFD
CFD (Contract for Difference) trading lets you speculate on the price movement of CNQ shares without owning them directly. This is attractive for short-term traders seeking to profit from both rising and falling markets, with the added option of using leverage (borrowing to increase your market exposure). Instead of a flat commission, the main costs are the spread (the difference between buy and sell prices) and potential overnight financing fees if you keep positions open beyond one day.
Important information
Example: Suppose you open a CFD position on Canadian Natural Resources with $1,000 CAD in margin and 5x leverage. This gives you $5,000 CAD market exposure to CNQ shares.
✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 (leverage) = 40%.
Result: +$400 gain on a $1,000 CAD investment (excluding spreads and overnight costs).
Final Advice
Before investing, carefully compare the fees, features, and terms offered by different brokers. Your choice between spot buying and CFDs should match your financial goals and risk tolerance: spot buying is best for long-term investors seeking dividends and the security of ownership, while CFDs suit active traders willing to take more risk for potentially higher returns. To find the option that best fits your investing style, check the broker comparison table further down this page.
Our 7 tips for buying Canadian Natural Resources stock
| 📊 Step | 📝 Specific tip for Canadian Natural Resources |
|---|---|
| Analyze the market | Examine recent trends in oil prices and the energy sector, as these directly affect CNQ’s performance. Focus on macroeconomic signals and the company’s operational updates for a well-informed entry point. |
| Choose the right trading platform | Select a Canadian brokerage that offers access to the TSX, CAD funding, and registered accounts like TFSA and RRSP to optimize for dividend taxation and ease of reinvestment. |
| Define your investment budget | Set a clear budget aligned with your risk tolerance, taking into account CNQ’s beta of 1.54, recent share price volatility, and your need for portfolio diversification. |
| Choose a strategy (short or long term) | Consider a long-term strategy to benefit from CNQ’s strong history of dividend growth, operational expansion, and long-life reserves, while being mindful of short-term oil price swings. |
| Monitor news and financial results | Stay updated on CNQ’s quarterly earnings releases, production updates, acquisition progress, and regulatory news, as these often drive share price movements. |
| Use risk management tools | Place stop-loss orders near support levels, and review exposure regularly, especially when technical indicators suggest bearish trends or market volatility increases. |
| Sell at the right time | Plan your exit around major company milestones, technical resistance tests, or when your investment objectives are met, ensuring you lock in profits and avoid emotional decisions. |
The latest news about Canadian Natural Resources
Canadian Natural Resources delivered record production and exceeded analyst expectations in Q4 2024, highlighting strong operational execution. The company's adjusted funds flow reached approximately CAD 4.2 billion for the quarter, with net earnings of CAD 1.1 billion and adjusted net earnings of CAD 2.0 billion. Notably, Canadian Natural achieved record quarterly average production of 1,470,428 BOE/d, with record liquids output, underscoring its successful expansion and cost control efforts. This performance resonated positively in the Canadian market and reinforced its leadership position in the country’s oil and gas industry, especially as the company managed to increase production while maintaining industry-leading cost efficiency.
The Board of Directors approved a 4% dividend increase in March 2025, marking 25 consecutive years of annual growth. Canadian Natural’s quarterly dividend was raised to CAD 0.5875 per common share, resulting in an annualized dividend of CAD 2.35 per share and yielding approximately 5.8%. This increase further enhances Canadian Natural’s appeal to Canadian income-focused investors, especially those utilizing TFSAs or RRSPs. The dividend reliability, coupled with a robust dividend growth track record, demonstrates the company’s financial resilience and strong commitment to shareholder returns, key attributes valued by the Canadian investment community.
Recently closed strategic acquisitions and infrastructure expansions bolster Canadian Natural’s production and market access. The company completed the acquisition of Chevron’s Alberta assets and a swap with Shell, increasing its oil sands mining and upgrading production capacity to about 592,000 bbl/d. Moreover, expanded transportation commitments—including an incremental 75,000 bbl/d to the Trans Mountain Expansion for a total of 169,000 bbl/d—improve access to Canada’s west coast and US Gulf Coast, facilitating broader market reach for Canadian crude. These actions strengthen Canadian Natural’s supply chain, minimize exposure to regional bottlenecks, and support long-term volume growth, thereby creating additional value for Canadian stakeholders.
Canadian Natural maintains industry-low operating costs and a strong balance sheet, supporting continued investment and stability. Operating costs within oil sands mining and upgrading fell by 6% to CAD 22.88/bbl in 2024, reaffirming the company’s efficiency leadership among Canadian peers. Its robust financial profile is evident with a debt-to-book capitalization of 32% and a debt-to-adjusted EBITDA of 1.1x. With a low WTI breakeven in the low- to mid-$40s per barrel, Canadian Natural remains highly competitive within the Canadian energy sector, capable of weathering price volatility while investing in growth, dividends, and share repurchases.
Despite recent share price softness, analysts project significant upside, supported by operational momentum and organic growth drivers. The stock currently trades with a 30% upside potential to the consensus target price (CAD 50.42), reflecting market confidence in the company’s record-setting production, expanding reserves, and multiple growth projects slated for 2025-2026. Market sentiment among Canadian analysts remains cautiously optimistic, as operational and strategic strengths are seen as offsetting near-term oil price headwinds and regulatory risks, positioning Canadian Natural as a resilient, long-term value creator in Canada’s energy landscape.
FAQ
What is the latest dividend for Canadian Natural Resources stock?
Canadian Natural Resources stock currently pays a dividend. As of March 2025, the quarterly cash dividend was increased to CAD 0.5875 per share, with an annualized dividend of CAD 2.35 per share. The next scheduled payment date will be announced by the Board, following the established schedule of consistent quarterly payouts. Impressively, the company has raised its dividend for 25 consecutive years, signaling a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders.
What is the forecast for Canadian Natural Resources stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?
Based on the current share price of $39.56 CAD, the projected values are:
— End of 2025: $51.43 CAD
— End of 2026: $59.34 CAD
— End of 2027: $79.12 CAD
The outlook for Canadian Natural Resources is supported by robust production growth and recent strategic acquisitions, positioning the company for further strength in the Canadian energy sector.
Should I sell my Canadian Natural Resources shares?
Holding onto Canadian Natural Resources shares may be appropriate given the company’s resilient fundamentals and history of growth. The stock’s attractive valuation, strong dividend record, and expanding asset base suggest potential for mid- to long-term upside. The company’s strategic moves, such as recent acquisitions and new project development, further support its long-term prospects in the energy sector.
How are Canadian Natural Resources shares and dividends treated for Canadian tax purposes?
Canadian Natural Resources shares are eligible for both TFSA and RRSP accounts, offering investors tax-deferred or tax-free growth depending on the account. Dividends received by Canadian investors benefit from the enhanced dividend tax credit, making them more tax efficient. There is no withholding tax for residents, allowing investors to fully benefit from dividend payments.
What is the latest dividend for Canadian Natural Resources stock?
Canadian Natural Resources stock currently pays a dividend. As of March 2025, the quarterly cash dividend was increased to CAD 0.5875 per share, with an annualized dividend of CAD 2.35 per share. The next scheduled payment date will be announced by the Board, following the established schedule of consistent quarterly payouts. Impressively, the company has raised its dividend for 25 consecutive years, signaling a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders.
What is the forecast for Canadian Natural Resources stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?
Based on the current share price of $39.56 CAD, the projected values are:
— End of 2025: $51.43 CAD
— End of 2026: $59.34 CAD
— End of 2027: $79.12 CAD
The outlook for Canadian Natural Resources is supported by robust production growth and recent strategic acquisitions, positioning the company for further strength in the Canadian energy sector.
Should I sell my Canadian Natural Resources shares?
Holding onto Canadian Natural Resources shares may be appropriate given the company’s resilient fundamentals and history of growth. The stock’s attractive valuation, strong dividend record, and expanding asset base suggest potential for mid- to long-term upside. The company’s strategic moves, such as recent acquisitions and new project development, further support its long-term prospects in the energy sector.
How are Canadian Natural Resources shares and dividends treated for Canadian tax purposes?
Canadian Natural Resources shares are eligible for both TFSA and RRSP accounts, offering investors tax-deferred or tax-free growth depending on the account. Dividends received by Canadian investors benefit from the enhanced dividend tax credit, making them more tax efficient. There is no withholding tax for residents, allowing investors to fully benefit from dividend payments.
