Should I buy TransAlta stock in 2025?

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At HelloSafe, our expert has been monitoring TransAlta's performance for more than three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users across Canada rely on us to decode market trends and pinpoint the most promising investment opportunities. Our analyses are intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. In line with our ethical charter, we have never received, and will never receive, any compensation from TransAlta.

What is TransAlta?

How much is TransAlta stock?

The price of TransAlta stock is rising this week. As of today, the share is trading at C$12.53, with a 24-hour gain of +1.95% and a 1-week increase of +2.87%. TransAlta’s market capitalization stands at C$3.73 billion, with an average 3-month daily volume of 1,948,188 shares. The company holds a P/E ratio of 21.24, a dividend yield of 2.08%, and a stock beta of 0.55.

With low volatility compared to the broader market and a steady dividend, TransAlta may appeal to Canadian investors looking for stability and long-term potential.

Our full analysis on TransAlta stock

Having carefully scrutinized TransAlta Corporation’s latest financial statements, analyzed the stock’s dynamic performance across the preceding three years, and rigorously assessed technical, fundamental, and sectoral data using our proprietary algorithms, we present an updated perspective on this prominent Canadian utility. Drawing on a blend of consensus and contrarian views, our review integrates market sentiment, quantitative indicators, and peer benchmarks, offering an expansive evaluation for investors seeking tactical opportunities in 2025. So, why might TransAlta stock once again become a strategic entry point into the renewable energy and utilities sector at this juncture?

Recent Performance and Market Context

TransAlta’s share price has experienced pronounced volatility in the past year, presenting a story of robust recovery and emerging resilience. Over the last twelve months, TA.TO advanced by 36.34%, outperforming many utilities sector peers and reflecting renewed market confidence in the company’s growth narrative. Despite a 6-month retracement of -12.74% from its highs, the stock has lately shown signs of stabilization, with a recovery of +2.87% in the past week and a +1.95% gain over just the past day.

These near-term gains have unfolded against a favorable macroeconomic backdrop for independent power producers. Structural tailwinds driving the energy transition in Canada and globally—including increased federal and provincial commitments to decarbonization, elevated demand for renewables from both governments and corporates, and supportive capital markets—are positioning agile, diversified operators like TransAlta for outsized future relevance.

On the corporate front, the December 2024 acquisition of Heartland Generation added 1.7 GW of new capacity, reinforcing TransAlta’s regional footprint and diversification, while recent successful wind project rollouts in Oklahoma signal operational momentum. Consistent capital returns—most notably, buybacks worth C$143 million at a strategic average price of C$10.59—further consolidate investor confidence in management’s long-term outlook. This convergence of external drivers and company-specific milestones continues to shape a constructive environment for the stock’s next phase.

Technical Analysis

A rigorous technical scan underscores the stock’s potential for an attractive entry at current levels. Trading at C$12.53, TransAlta hovers just above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at C$12.34—a key technical support. The 200-day SMA at C$12.83 marks a pivotal resistance level; this proximity indicates a consolidation pattern where a decisive break could usher in renewed positive momentum.

Notably, the current 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 38.19 places the stock near but not yet at oversold territory (typically considered sub-30), suggesting limited remaining downside risk and a growing probability of a technical rebound. The MACD remains modestly negative (-0.41), but any inflection toward neutrality or positivity would add conviction to a potential short-term upside move.

Short- and medium-term price action appears to be stabilizing after a meaningful retrace from the 52-week high of C$21.22. If the stock continues to respect the C$12.34 support and challenges the 200-day resistance in coming sessions, the technical anatomy would support the case for a sustainable bullish reversal, positioning investors favorably ahead of anticipated catalysts.

Fundamental Analysis

TransAlta’s fundamental metrics paint a picture of operational strength and prudent capital management. Full year 2024 revenue grew by an impressive 8.7% year-over-year to C$2.84 billion, underlining the success of recent asset additions and organic development. Adjusted EBITDA for the period reached C$1.25 billion, well within management’s historic guidance, while free cash flow came in at a robust C$569 million (C$1.88 per share), providing ample support for both dividends and reinvestment.

Net earnings for 2024 were C$177 million, or C$0.59 per share—further validating ongoing profitability during a period of sectoral turbulence and integration. With a trailing P/E ratio of 21.24, TransAlta trades at a premium to some value-oriented utilities but reflects its superior growth potential, differentiated asset base, and leading position in renewables. The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.33 and EV/EBITDA of 8.09 both compare favourably to industry medians, supporting the thesis of an attractive long-term valuation.

Strategically, TransAlta’s evolving generation mix is a significant structural advantage: nearly 33% of capacity comes from renewables (wind and solar), with legacy coal assets being rapidly transitioned or retired. The Heartland acquisition brings additional geographic and fuel-type diversity, creating optionality for both merchant and contracted revenue streams. The company’s six-year streak of dividend increases (including an 8% annual hike in 2025) and a C$1.6 billion liquidity position underscore management’s disciplined, shareholder-friendly approach.

Volume and Liquidity

Trading volume is a key indicator of market depth and institutional interest. Over the past three months, TA.TO has averaged nearly 1.95 million shares traded daily—a robust level for the Canadian utilities space. This healthy liquidity supports efficient price discovery and enables both retail and institutional investors to enter or exit positions with minimal market impact.

The current free float remains ample for dynamic valuation shifts, and recent buybacks have not constrained the stock’s secondary market activity. Sustained trading activity at present price levels is further evidence of market confidence and underlying demand, providing a foundation for potential bullish repricing as catalysts materialize.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

TransAlta’s forward-looking prospects are increasingly defined by innovation, strategic growth, and industry leadership. Multiple major catalysts serve to meaningfully enhance the investment case:

• Renewable Capacity Expansion: The operationalization of new wind and solar projects in Oklahoma and North America in 2024, together with ongoing asset development, solidifies TransAlta's standing as a leading renewable energy provider.
• Strategic Acquisitions: The Heartland Generation purchase is expected to not only diversify revenues but also create synergies in operations, energy trading, and potential pipeline redevelopments.
• Production Tax Credit (PTC) Sales: Long-term agreements to monetize U.S. wind PTCs ensure a stable EBITDA contribution (~C$78 million annually), highlighting both financial engineering skill and expansion into new regulatory environments.
• ESG and Decarbonization: TransAlta has now achieved a 70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions since 2015 and continues to align with ESG benchmarks, making it well-suited for institutional allocations tracking sustainability mandates.
• Dividend Momentum: The continued increase in quarterly dividends signals management’s confidence in recurring cash flows and strengthens the company’s value proposition to income-focused investors.
• Market Tailwinds: Structural policy support for clean energy, together with tightening in Alberta’s power market and rising battery storage opportunities, all create a constructive runway for continued earnings and cash flow growth.

Management’s 2025 outlook anticipates adjusted EBITDA between C$1.15 and C$1.25 billion, with free cash flow in the C$450–C$550 million range. The incremental contributions from new wind and solar installations, combined with the integration of Heartland assets, are highly likely to offset any anticipated moderation in Alberta merchant asset profitability.

Investment Strategies

For active and medium-term investors, several attractive entry tactics emerge:

• Short-Term Positioning: The current technical stabilization around C$12.50—just above solid support—offers a calculated entry for traders anticipating a reversal or momentum play, especially as RSI and MACD move toward inflection points.
• Medium-Term Value Accumulation: Investors seeking to accumulate over several months could benefit from the stock’s consolidation phase, with a view toward re-rating ahead of the next earnings cycle, Heartland integration updates, or additional renewable asset announcements.
• Long-Term Portfolio Anchor: For those with a multi-year view, exposure at present valuations appears justified by the combination of defensive cash flow, dividend growth, and secular tailwinds in the transition to clean power.

A measured averaging-in approach at current levels—potentially adding on any further weakness toward the 20-day SMA—could enable investors to capture upside as the company executes on its robust capital plan and new operating milestones.

Is it the Right Time to Buy TransAlta?

TransAlta today presents a confluence of strengths rarely found in the Canadian utilities sector: accelerating renewable asset deployment, a clear track record in both organic and inorganic growth, consistent and growing dividends, and proactive capital management. The current pricing, after a multi-month consolidation and a meaningful retracement from 52-week highs, now seems to represent an excellent opportunity for both value- and growth-oriented investors to revisit this evolving story.

Technically, the stabilization above key support levels, alongside encouraging (and improving) RSI and volume signals, point toward a reacceleration potential in the near-to-medium term. Fundamentally, the stock’s combination of continued revenue growth, disciplined expansion into renewables, and stable cash generation justify renewed interest, while the elevated institutional and retail trading volumes reinforce market conviction.

Looking ahead, TransAlta’s positive momentum—driven by execution on strategic projects, the prospect of further accretive acquisitions, and sectoral tailwinds from the decarbonization megatrend—suggests the stock may be entering a new bullish phase. Investors seeking resilient, ESG-aligned growth stories with superior risk/reward dynamics in the Canadian market may find TransAlta particularly compelling at current valuations.

In summary, while ongoing monitoring of Alberta price volatility and integration progress is prudent, the evidence increasingly favours a constructive stance: TransAlta offers a rare blend of immediate income, defensive stability, and forward-looking growth. As 2025 unfolds, the stock stands out as a dynamic entry point for those looking to capitalize on the transformation of North America’s power generation landscape—an opportunity propelled by clear catalysts, disciplined execution, and the structural tailwinds governing the modern utilities sector.

How to buy TransAlta stock in Canada?

Buying TransAlta stock online is straightforward and secure when using a regulated Canadian broker. As a retail investor, you have two main options: purchasing shares directly on the stock market (spot buying), or trading contracts for difference (CFDs) that track TransAlta’s price movements. Both methods are accessible from your computer or smartphone and offer strong investor protections regulated by Canadian authorities. The choice depends on your investment goals and risk appetite. To help you get started, we’ve provided a broker comparison further down the page.

Spot buying

A cash (spot) purchase of TransAlta stock means you’re buying real shares listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: TA.TO), giving you direct ownership and eligibility for dividends. Most Canadian online brokers charge a fixed commission per trade, typically ranging from C$4.95 to C$9.99.

Example

With TransAlta’s current share price at C$12.53, a C$1,000 investment (including a typical C$5 commission) allows you to purchase approximately 79 shares ((C$1,000 - C$5) / C$12.53 ≈ 79 shares).

✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 10%, your holdings would be worth about C$1,100.
Result: That’s a gross gain of C$100, or +10% on your investment, excluding commissions and taxes.

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) allow you to speculate on TransAlta’s share price without owning the actual shares. CFD trading is available on many online trading platforms and offers the flexibility of leverage, meaning you can control a larger position with a smaller amount of capital. Fees typically include a spread (difference between buy/sell prices) and, if you hold positions overnight, financing costs.

Example

With a C$1,000 CFD stake and 5× leverage, your market exposure jumps to C$5,000. If TransAlta stock increases by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.

✔️ Result: That’s a C$400 gross gain on a C$1,000 deposit (excluding spreads and overnight fees).

Final advice

Before investing, always compare brokers’ fees and trading conditions—including commission rates, spreads, and available leverage. The right choice depends on your investment style, risk tolerance, and whether you prefer direct ownership with dividends or short-term leveraged trading. To make an informed decision, be sure to check out our detailed broker comparison featured below.

Platforms

Minimum Deposit

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Star Trader

4.9

Minimum Deposit

$50

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Broker specializing in Forex and CFDs

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IFC Markets

4.8

Minimum Deposit

$1

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Broker regulated since 2006

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Avatrade

4.8

Minimum Deposit

$100

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Our 7 tips for buying TransAlta stock

The latest news about TransAlta

TransAlta has delivered robust one-year share price growth of 36.34%, significantly outperforming the Canadian utilities sector. This performance is especially notable given the cautious broader market environment and demonstrates strong investor confidence in both the company’s leadership and its business strategy. Over the last week, TransAlta’s share price rose by nearly 3%, stabilizing above key technical support at C$12.34 and maintaining momentum after a period of volatility. This recent upturn is supported by higher trading volumes and favorable sentiment in the Canadian renewables space, despite moderate pressure from a declining Alberta power price environment.

The company’s announcement of a sixth consecutive annual dividend increase, raising the payout by 8% in 2025, stands as a key positive signal. For Canadian investors seeking yield and stability, this places TransAlta among the most consistent dividend growers in the Canadian utilities universe. The next ex-dividend date is May 30, 2025, and with the annualized payout now at C$0.26 per share, the company offers a dividend yield of 2.08%. This track record, amidst ongoing sector transformation, highlights a focus on disciplined capital allocation and signals management’s confidence in strong future free cash flow.

TransAlta’s recently completed Heartland Generation acquisition has materially strengthened its market position in Alberta and expanded its contracted asset base. The transaction added 1.7 GW of complementary capacity across nine facilities, further entrenching TransAlta as Alberta’s largest hydro producer and as a key contributor to the provincial energy transition. With integration proceeding according to plan and the new assets poised to contribute to EBITDA within 2025 guidance, the deal is widely viewed by analysts as accretive and well-aligned with national and provincial decarbonization priorities.

Major operational progress in 2024 has accelerated earnings diversification, notably with the commissioning of over 500 MW of new wind assets in Oklahoma. Commercial operation of the White Rock and Horizon Hill wind facilities, combined with long-term Production Tax Credit (PTC) agreements, is expected to deliver approximately C$78 million in annual EBITDA. These U.S. wind projects diversify cash flow beyond the Canadian market and leverage the cross-border energy transition, directly benefiting Canadian shareholders through enhanced stability and growth prospects.

TransAlta’s 2025 financial outlook remains constructive, reaffirming adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow targets despite Alberta market headwinds. Management confidently projects 2025 adjusted EBITDA in the range of C$1.15–1.25 billion and free cash flow between C$450–550 million, anchored by growth in renewables and steady returns from the Heartland acquisition. The reiteration of guidance and consensus price target of C$17.55 underscore the market’s positive long-term view, even as near-term price volatility remains influenced by changing generation mix and provincial market conditions.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.