Should I buy GFL stock in 2025?

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At HelloSafe, our expert has been monitoring GFL’s performance for more than three years. Each month, hundreds of thousands of Canadians rely on us to break down market trends and point out the top investment opportunities. Our analyses are intended for information purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. In accordance with our ethical charter, we have never received, and will never receive, any payment from GFL.

What is GFL?

How much is GFL stock?

The price of GFL stock is rising this week. GFL is currently trading at $49.90, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.02% in the past 24 hours and a 3.81% loss over the last week. The company commands a market capitalization of $19.58 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 1.99 million shares over the past three months. While the P/E Ratio is not available due to negative earnings, the dividend yield stands at 0.12%, and the stock shows a beta of 0.88, indicating relatively lower volatility. Given its recent momentum and stability, GFL may appeal to investors looking for steady growth in the Canadian market.

Our full analysis on GFL stock

Having rigorously reviewed GFL Environmental Inc.’s most recent financial results and stock performance over the past three years—and by synthesizing financial, technical, market, and competitive research through advanced proprietary models—we are now positioned to present a comprehensive perspective on GFL. How does this combination of robust fundamentals, structural improvements, and growing market optimism set the stage for GFL to potentially emerge again as a strategic entry point into the North American waste management sector for 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

In the last twelve months, GFL Environmental Inc. (NYSE/TSX: GFL) has delivered an impressive 56.43% share price appreciation, reflecting mounting investor confidence and the company’s operational progress. Over the most recent six-month period, the stock has risen nearly 19%, outperforming both the S&P/TSX Composite and North American waste management peers in the same timeframe. Despite a minor 3.8% pullback over the past week—largely attributable to sector-wide volatility—the broader trend remains distinctly upward.

• Completion of the divestiture of its Environmental Services business, which unlocked liquidity, allowed for significant deleveraging, and set the stage for future capital allocation.
• Aggressive share repurchases—over 31.7 million shares bought back in Q1— have signaled strong confidence from management and helped support the per-share value.
• Acquisitions providing $85 million in annual revenue have broadened the platform and positioned the company advantageously in a consolidating industry.

The macroeconomic context is also favorably aligned for 2025. Waste management remains a resilient sector, buoyed by growing urban populations, tightening environmental regulations, and accelerating sustainability mandates across Canada and the US. Rising focus on circular economies and renewable resource management only enhances structural demand for the comprehensive solutions GFL provides.

Technical Analysis

Technically, GFL is showing multiple signs of potential continuation in its bullish trajectory. The stock’s technical posture is underpinned by several key elements:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 54.89, RSI reflects balanced market sentiment—not overbought, suggesting room for further upside.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): A positive MACD of 0.62 indicates bullish momentum, with moving averages supporting the continuation of buying pressure.
• Moving Averages Structure: GFL trades firmly above its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, a rare alignment signaling both short-term momentum and long-term investor conviction.
• Golden Cross Formation: Notably, a golden cross (50-day MA moving above the 200-day MA) was recently observed—historically a robust technical signal of potential sustained upside.
• Support and Resistance: The nearest support levels—$47.08, $45.45, $43.34—have shown stout defense during recent dips, providing excellent near-term reference points for entry positioning. Short-term resistance is $48.47, with the all-important $50.00 representing the next psychological and technical hurdle.

Taken together, current technical signals bolster the view that GFL may be entering a new medium- to long-term uptrend, offering favorable risk-reward for new positions.

Fundamental Analysis

Beneath the surface, GFL’s fundamentals continue to improve markedly:

• Revenue Growth: Q1 2025 revenues reached $1,560 million—an impressive 12.5% organic growth (9.0% including divestitures), underlining both pricing power and expanding customer demand.
• Profitability/Operating Leverage: Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $426.1 million, a 13.8% YoY increase. At 27.3%, the margin sets a new company record for Q1, indicating both scale benefits and efficient cost management.
• Deleveraging and Balance Sheet Strength: The company’s net leverage is now at a historic low (3.1x), driven by the well-received Environmental Services divestiture and prudent use of proceeds for debt reduction.
• Valuation: While GFL’s negative trailing EPS and lack of a P/E ratio reflect sector-standard accounting (due to non-cash charges and ongoing growth investments), alternative metrics such as price/sales (3.35) and price/book (3.67) remain attractive compared to certain industry peers. The improvement in profitability and margin expansion narrative justifies renewed focus from growth-oriented investors.

Structural strengths further reinforce the investment case:

• Innovation & ESG Positioning: Accelerated investments in renewable natural gas (RNG) and recycling facilities are strategically aligned with regulatory trends and customer sustainability demand. These moves further cement GFL’s role as a leader in the “green” transformation of the waste sector.
• Market Share: GFL is the fourth largest diversified environmental services provider in North America, operating a deeply integrated platform across both Canada and the US.
• Brand & Management: Founder-led governance (Patrick Dovigi) and a sizable, motivated workforce have supported a culture of disciplined expansion and operational achievement.

Volume and Liquidity

GFL’s share price is supported by robust average daily trading volume—1.99 million shares over the past three months—demonstrating sustained institutional and retail participation. Such liquidity is a hallmark of market confidence and allows for dynamic valuation adjustments in response to company or sector news.

The stock’s float and dual US/Canada listing promote visibility and accessibility:

• Float-driven upside: Reduced float due to recent buybacks creates a more responsive share price environment as demand picks up.
• Registered Account Eligibility: GFL is eligible for RRSP, TFSA, and other Canadian registered investments, increasing its attractiveness to tax-efficient buyers.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Looking ahead, several concrete growth catalysts can propel GFL:

• Sustained Solid Waste Segment Expansion: The core segment’s organic growth (5.7% from pricing in Q1) is expected to persist, especially as urbanization and regulatory requirements drive volume.
• Margin Expansion: Ongoing operational integration, cost rationalization, and scale gains support further improvement in EBITDA margins.
• M&A Activity: With a stronger balance sheet, GFL is positioned to pursue value-creative, accretive acquisitions as the North American industry remains highly fragmented.
• Sustainability Projects: Accelerated investment in RNG and recycling aligns with customer and regulatory trends towards decarbonization and circularity—potentially unlocking premium growth and valuation multiples.
• Favorable Policy and Regulatory Backdrop: Both Canadian and US initiatives continue supporting environmental infrastructure, waste diversion, and renewable energy investments.

Market sentiment reflects consensus optimism:

• Analysts have largely maintained “Buy” or equivalent ratings, with recent results exceeding forecasts and management offering confident outlooks.
• Share repurchases signal management belief in undervaluation and trajectory.

Investment Strategies

GFL presents compelling entry arguments for varying investment horizons:

• Short-term: The stock currently sits close to key support at $47–$48, with a recent minor retrace offering a potentially attractive technical entry. Positive technical signals—especially the golden cross—suggest momentum could accelerate on crossing the $50 resistance.
• Medium-term: Expected follow-through from new acquisitions and continued margin improvements offer visibility into the next several quarters. Potential for favorable revisions to earnings estimates as realized synergies and organic growth filter through.
• Long-term: Investors may benefit from GFL’s ability to compound expansion through tuck-in acquisitions, ESG innovation, and continued deleveraging, all underpinned by resilient, recurring cashflows. The company’s unique market positioning and clear expansion runway in North America enhance its prospects for above-market returns.

In all cases, the recent financial and operational developments offer an unusually clear, low-risk catalyst framework rarely seen at this stage in GFL’s growth arc.

Is it the Right Time to Buy GFL?

Summing up, GFL Environmental Inc. today stands at the intersection of strengthening fundamentals, technical momentum, and favorable sector tailwinds. Key operational achievements—including historic margin expansion, bold deleveraging actions, and successful acquisition execution—point to a business that is both resilient and primed for continued growth. Technical chart structures, combined with strong liquidity and increasingly positive analyst sentiment, reinforce the impression that GFL may now be entering a promising new bullish phase.

With robust support levels in place, structural improvements accelerating, and fresh capital available for further expansion, the fundamentals justify renewed interest—especially for investors seeking exposure to resilient, well-managed, and sustainability-focused leaders in the North American Industrials space. While no investment is without risk, the balance of recent developments strongly suggests that GFL represents an excellent opportunity for serious consideration as part of a forward-looking, growth-oriented portfolio.

For those seeking an optimal entry into a dynamic sector poised for both cyclical and structural growth, GFL Environmental Inc. continues to offer a rare blend of scale, momentum, and vision—making this a moment truly worth watching with conviction.

How to buy GFL stock in Canada?

Buying GFL Environmental (GFL) shares online is straightforward and secure when you use a regulated Canadian broker. Whether you choose to become a direct shareholder (spot/cash buying) or trade via Contracts for Difference (CFDs), both methods can be accessed easily from your computer or smartphone. Spot buying makes you a part-owner of the company, whereas CFDs offer flexibility with leverage and short-term opportunities—without actual share ownership. Your selection depends on your profile and strategy. To make the best choice, be sure to review our broker comparison further down the page.

Spot buying

A cash purchase involves buying GFL shares outright through your brokerage account, making you a direct shareholder in the company. You’ll typically pay a fixed commission per transaction, often ranging from $5 to $10 CAD, depending on your broker.

Sample calculation: Spot buying

Example: Suppose GFL shares trade at $49.90 CAD on the Toronto Stock Exchange. If you invest $1,000, you could buy approximately 19 shares, after factoring in an estimated $5 commission ($1,000 – $5 = $995; $995 ÷ $49.90 ≈ 19 shares).
✔️ Gain scenario: If the GFL share price rises by 10% (to $54.89), your 19 shares would now be worth about $1,043.91.
Result: +$100 gross gain, i.e., +10% on your investment (before taxes and fees).

Trading via CFD

CFD (Contract for Difference) trading on GFL shares lets you trade on the price movements without owning the underlying stock, and offers the option to use leverage for amplified exposure. Instead of a flat commission, you typically pay the spread (the difference between buy and sell prices) and, if you keep positions overnight, a daily financing fee.

Sample calculation: CFD trading

Example: You deposit $1,000 and use 5x leverage, granting you $5,000 exposure to GFL shares via CFDs.
✔️ Gain scenario: If GFL shares rise by 8%, your position gains 8% x 5 = 40%.
Result: +$400 gain on your $1,000 stake (excluding spreads and overnight fees).

Final advice

Before investing in GFL, it’s essential to compare brokers’ fees, trading conditions, and available features. Spot buying suits long-term investors seeking ownership, while CFDs appeal to those pursuing leveraged, short-term strategies. Your optimal method depends on your investment goals and risk tolerance. You’ll find our up-to-date broker comparison further down the page to help guide your decision.

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Our 7 tips for buying GFL stock

The latest news about GFL

GFL Environmental reported record Q1 2025 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, exceeding analyst consensus. On April 30, 2025, GFL Environmental released its first-quarter financial results, posting $1,560.1 million in revenue—a 12.5% year-over-year increase excluding divestitures—and Adjusted EBITDA of $426.1 million, up 13.8%. The company also achieved a 27.3% Adjusted EBITDA margin, the highest for any Q1 in its history, demonstrating enhanced operational efficiency. These figures not only underscore GFL’s strong growth trajectory in Canada, but also surpassed key analyst estimates, reinforcing the overall positive sentiment toward the stock and Canadian market positioning.

Balance sheet strengthened with lowest net leverage in company history—now at 3.1x after a key divestiture. Following the March 2025 sale of its Environmental Services business, GFL has materially reduced its debt load by using the proceeds to significantly deleverage the balance sheet. The new net leverage ratio of 3.1x is the lowest ever reported by the company. This decisive financial maneuver improves credit quality, enhances the company’s capacity to pursue further growth initiatives within Canada, and provides a defensive buffer amid potential macroeconomic volatility, which is particularly important in the Canadian operating context.

GFL expanded Canadian shareholder returns with a 10% dividend increase and a significant stock repurchase program in Q1 2025. The company announced a 10% increase in its quarterly dividend, bringing it to $0.06 per share, with the most recent ex-dividend date on April 14, 2025. Moreover, GFL repurchased over 31.7 million subordinate voting shares during Q1 through multiple channels, including its normal course issuer bid and direct transactions. These actions benefit Canadian investors directly, reflecting GFL management’s confidence in the company’s long-term prospects and their commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Strategic acquisitions completed year-to-date are set to add approximately $85 million in annualized revenue, strengthening GFL’s Canadian presence. In the first months of 2025, GFL completed several tuck-in acquisitions, collectively contributing about $85 million in added annualized revenue. This acquisition activity not only consolidates GFL’s market leadership within Canada but also leverages the company’s scale and integrated service platform. The ongoing consolidation offers the potential for further synergies and margin improvements in domestic operations, benefiting both the company and the broader Canadian waste management sector.

Technical analysis signals a bullish trend for GFL shares, highlighted by a recent golden cross and strong momentum above major moving averages. The stock’s price remains above its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages as of May 1, 2025, with the recent formation of a golden cross—a technical pattern where the 50-day average crosses above the 200-day average—further amplifying bullish sentiment. The MACD indicator remains positive, supporting the view that upward price momentum could persist. These technical signals, observed on both the TSX and NYSE listings, suggest continued investor confidence in GFL’s performance, with notable implications for Canadian market participants.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.