Should I buy Couche-Tard stock in 2025?

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At HelloSafe, our expert has been monitoring Couche-Tard’s performance for more than three years. Each month, hundreds of thousands of Canadians rely on us to break down market trends and uncover the top investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. In accordance with our ethical charter, we have never been, and will never be, paid by Couche-Tard.

What is Couche-Tard?

How much is Couche-Tard stock?

The price of Couche-Tard stock declined this week. ATD is currently trading at C$71.71, representing a 1.04% decrease over the past 24 hours but a 2.77% gain over the last week. The company has a market capitalization of C$68.0 billion and an average 3-month trading volume of 1.4 million shares. Couche-Tard's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 19.14, the dividend yield is 1.08%, and its stock beta is 0.81, indicating below-average market volatility. Despite recent price softness, the company’s strong fundamentals and resilient business model may offer solid opportunities for Canadian investors seeking long-term growth.

Our full analysis on Couche-Tard stock

We have scrutinized Alimentation Couche-Tard's (TSX: ATD) latest financial results and tracked its share price evolution over the past three years, synthesizing insights from a robust blend of fundamental indicators, technical signals, market trends, and peer benchmarks through our proprietary quantitative models. This multifaceted approach allows us to decode both the operational resilience and stock dynamics behind ATD’s performance. So, why might Couche-Tard stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global convenience retail sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Alimentation Couche-Tard’s share price stood at C$71.71 as of April 30, 2025, marking a slight daily decline of 1.04%. However, over the past week, the stock showed resilience, advancing 2.77%—suggesting renewed investor interest after recent softness. On a six-month basis, ATD has receded by 3.33%, and for the full year, shares are down 6.02%. Notably, its year-to-date performance reflects a 9.38% pullback, locating ATD comfortably toward the lower end of its 52-week range (C$65.95 - C$85.53).

Despite these near-term headwinds, recent events signal stabilization and potential upside:

• Q3 fiscal 2025 results exceeded expectations, with revenue up 6.5% to $20.9 billion and net earnings improving 2.9%—a testament to resilient operational execution amid a challenging macro environment.
• Canadian same-store sales grew robustly (+2.8%), offsetting minor US weakness and supporting the case for regional diversification.
• Recent strategic acquisitions, notably the anniversary of the TotalEnergies asset purchase, are on track for significant synergies, adding scale and operational leverage.
• From a macro perspective, the North American convenience retail sector appears well positioned to benefit from receding inflationary pressures and a potential rebound in consumer sentiment in late 2025, with Couche-Tard’s global positioning adding further insulation against local downturns.

Technical Analysis

A focused review of ATD’s technical setup highlights a pivot point with building positive momentum:

• Moving Averages: The 10-day (C$71.97), 20-day (C$71.22), and 50-day (C$70.67) SMAs register buy signals, indicating near-term bullish sentiment, even as longer-term 100-day and 200-day averages flag lingering bearish undertones. This crossover zone often defines attractive entry points for patient investors.
• Indicators: The RSI at 55.52 is neutral, denoting no overbought risk, while the ADX (16.69), Williams %R (-29.22), and Rate of Change (5.01) all signal a possible buy. MACD’s modest sell reading (-0.56) reflects residual consolidation, while short-term oscillators flash supportive signals.
• Support and Resistance: Key support is established at C$70.89 and C$71.62, levels that have reliably contained recent selloffs. Immediate resistance at C$72.99 and C$73.63 could trigger upside if breached, feeding into a medium-term move higher.
• Consensus: With a technical consensus skewed 10:5:7 (bullish:neutral:bearish), and short-term indicators disproportionately positive, the technical structure suggests the stock may be preparing for a new bullish phase—especially if macro or company-specific catalysts emerge.

Fundamental Analysis

Couche-Tard’s financial health and business model underpin an optimistic long-term case:

• Consistent Growth: Q3 2025 revenue rose 6.5%, net income by 2.9%, and diluted EPS by 4.6% year-over-year. These results point to operational resilience even during sectoral slowdowns.
• Attractive Valuation: Trading at 19.14x earnings, a price/sales of 0.67, and a price/book of 3.49, ATD appears modestly valued relative to historical norms and comparable sector plays—leaving room for multiple expansion.
• Strong Returns: Return on equity stands at an impressive 18.8%, and return on capital employed at 12.3%, reflecting disciplined capital allocation and robust profitability.
• Strategic Expansion: The company’s footprint—almost 17,000 stores in 29 countries—continues to expand via new builds and targeted acquisitions. This expansion is fueling both top-line growth and margin improvement from realized synergies, which are expected to climb sharply over the coming fiscal years.
• Brand and Market Share: With Circle K as a recognized global brand and best-in-class merchandising, Couche-Tard holds category-leading positions across multiple geographies, mitigating regional risks and driving customer loyalty.

Volume and Liquidity

Liquidity and trading activity further boost investor confidence:

• Sustained Volume: Average daily volume stands at 1.4 million shares, reflecting healthy market participation and ample liquidity for institutions and individuals alike.
• Favorable Float: The broad float and widespread ownership structure facilitate dynamic price discovery and make for an investable vehicle for both retail and professional allocators.
• Market Confidence: The stability in trading volumes, even amid recent price volatility, underscores persistent market faith in the company’s outlook and ability to deliver shareholder value.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

A series of converging catalysts build a robust case for renewed upside:

• Synergy Realization: The recent TotalEnergies acquisition is on pace to deliver cumulative synergies of €120 million ($127 million) by 2027 and €170 million ($179 million) by 2029, providing a clear line of sight to margin and EPS growth.
• Network Growth: Active new store construction (56 underway as of Q3) and incremental acquisitions (Hutch’s in the US, expansion in the Netherlands) drive both organic and inorganic revenue growth.
• Food Innovation: The extension of successful food and meal deal offerings into new geographies taps into the rising demand for quick-serve fresh food, deepening in-store wallets and building repeat traffic.
• Operational Efficiency: Robust cost control and margin optimization, especially on fuel, further support earnings stability regardless of cyclical swings.
• ESG Initiatives: Although not forefront in this quarter, Couche-Tard’s ongoing investment in environmental initiatives and responsible sourcing bolsters its competitive positioning with increasingly ESG-focused capital.

Investment Strategies

Couche-Tard’s current technical and strategic profile accommodates multiple entry approaches:

• Short-Term: The convergence of buy signals on short- and medium-term moving averages and the approach to critical support, combined with potential for a near-term technical bounce toward C$73.63–C$75.00, favors nimble tactical positioning. Traders could seize low volatility at current levels for quick gains.
• Medium-Term: Upcoming earnings releases or confirmed synergy milestones (notably from the TotalEnergies integration) may act as positive catalysts, priming positions established at current or near-support prices.
• Long-Term: Investors with a longer horizon may find the current valuation compelling, especially considering Couche-Tard’s reliably expanding store base, strong acquisition pipeline, and demonstrated resilience during economic cycles. The favorable balance sheet, global diversification, and commitment to dividend growth further enhance the risk/reward profile.

By entering near the current technical lows—below the 100- and 200-day SMAs but above robust support—investors may gain an advantageous position ahead of both cyclical recovery and company-specific catalysts expected to materialize through late 2025 and beyond.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Couche-Tard?

Amid a temporarily subdued share price and mixed but improving technical landscape, Alimentation Couche-Tard stands out for its operational strength, disciplined expansion, resilient cash flows, and track record of value-creating acquisitions. Its proven ability to drive growth during both robust and challenging times, paired with visible catalysts—ranging from synergy realization to network expansion and food innovation—arguably justifies renewed investor attention.

While near-term volatility and consumer pressures persist, ATD’s leadership in its sector, healthy balance sheet, steady dividend, and strategic vision increasingly position the stock for a positive re-rating as macroeconomic headwinds abate and company-specific drivers come to fruition.

In summary, Couche-Tard’s shares appear to represent an excellent opportunity for investors seeking exposure to global convenience retail and fuel, with the fundamentals and technical setups supporting a constructive outlook. With multiple catalysts on the horizon and a valuation that may not fully reflect the depth of its growth levers, Couche-Tard’s current levels warrant serious consideration as a strategic addition to a diversified Canadian or global equity portfolio.

For investors looking to capitalize on both resilient defensiveness and latent growth, the present may well mark the beginning of a new bullish phase for Couche-Tard—one that rewards patience and conviction in an industry-leading franchise.

How to buy Couche-Tard stock in Canada?

Buying Alimentation Couche-Tard stock online is simple and secure thanks to regulated Canadian brokers, offering robust protection for retail investors. You can become a shareholder by purchasing Couche-Tard shares directly (“spot buying”) or trade on their price movements with CFDs (Contracts for Difference). Each method has its own risk and fee structure. Before you invest, it’s wise to compare brokers, as their commissions and platforms can differ significantly—a broker comparison is available further down the page.

Spot buying

Spot buying means purchasing Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD) shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange in your own name. This method makes you a direct owner of the shares: you can receive dividends and vote at company meetings. Most leading Canadian brokers charge a fixed commission per order—typically around $5 to $10.

Important Example

Example:
If ATD shares are trading at C$71.71, with a C$1,000 investment (minus a $5 brokerage fee), you can purchase about 13 shares:

• Total share cost: 13 × C$71.71 = C$932.23
• Remaining cash after commission: ~C$62.77

Gain scenario:
If the share price increases by 10% to C$78.88, your 13 shares become worth C$1,025.44.
Result: That’s a +C$93.21 gross gain, or approximately +10% on your investment (excluding commissions and taxes).

Trading via CFDs

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) are derivatives that let you speculate on Couche-Tard’s price movements without owning the underlying shares. CFD brokers charge a “spread” (the gap between buying and selling prices), and if you hold positions overnight, additional financing costs apply. A key advantage is leverage—you can control a larger position with less capital, but risk is higher.

Important Example

Example:
With C$1,000 and 5x leverage, you can open a CFD position equivalent to C$5,000 on ATD shares.

Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a +C$400 gain on your C$1,000 stake (before deducting spreads and any overnight fees). Remember, losses can also be amplified.

Final advice

Before investing, always compare brokers for trading fees, available products, and platform reliability—these can make a real difference to your results. Choosing between spot buying and CFDs depends on your objectives: long-term investors often prefer direct share ownership, while active traders may seek the flexibility and leverage of CFDs. The broker comparison further down this page can help you find the ideal solution for your needs.

Platforms

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Our 7 tips for buying Couche-Tard stock

The latest news about Couche-Tard

Couche-Tard delivered robust quarterly results, with Canadian same-store sales up by 2.8% and strong margin growth. In its latest Q3 2025 reporting, Couche-Tard posted a 6.5% increase in revenue year-over-year and a 4.6% rise in diluted earnings per share. Of particular interest to Canadian investors, Canadian same-store merchandise revenues grew by 2.8%, indicating healthy consumer demand despite inflationary pressures. Additionally, the fuel gross margin in Canada climbed to 13.54 cents per litre, an increase of 0.55 cents, showing resilience and pricing power in the Canadian fuel market. These trends highlight the company’s ability to generate organic growth in its core domestic geography.

Technical analysis consensus remains bullish in the short term, suggesting near-term upside for the stock on the TSX. Despite mixed longer-term technicals, the stock currently benefits from 10 bullish indicators versus only 7 bearish, with 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages both giving “buy” signals. Notably, last week’s performance saw the share price gain 2.77%, outperforming its six-month and yearly trends. Immediate support levels around C$71 and resistance at C$73 suggest limited downside risk, while the overall technical setup on the TSX implies that recent momentum could sustain near-term appreciation, which is positive for Canadian investors seeking entry points.

Expansion of meal deal promotions into Canada is boosting in-store traffic and broadening the company’s food category offering. Couche-Tard’s US-originated food initiatives—specifically bundled meal deals—have been successfully introduced into Canadian locations, contributing positively to merchandise revenue and traffic. This cross-border strategy not only diversifies revenue streams but also strengthens local engagement with new products, reinforcing the company’s positioning as an innovator in the Canadian convenience sector. The growing focus on prepared foods and foodservice is an important margin driver and aligns with evolving consumer preferences in Canada.

Continued network growth in Canada, with new store construction and renovations accelerating across key regions. Recent company updates confirm ongoing construction of new Canadian stores and the renovation or reconstruction of several existing sites. These investments enhance Couche-Tard’s competitive footprint, particularly as it maintains a leading position in the national landscape. The new and improved locations are expected to drive higher customer throughput and support long-term earnings in the company’s home market, underscoring its commitment to Canadian growth.

Operational synergy realization from European acquisitions provides a clear roadmap for future earnings growth, benefitting the overall corporation including Canadian operations. The one-year anniversary of the TotalEnergies asset acquisition marks progress in synergy integration, with a current annual run rate of approximately €13 million and targets set to reach €170 million in synergies by fiscal 2029. These improvements not only strengthen Couche-Tard’s earnings profile globally but also support further reinvestment and strategic expansion in Canada, creating a virtuous cycle of growth for Canadian shareholders and stakeholders.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.