[Barometer] Real estates prices down 12.2% in Ontario in 2022
Is the year 2022 already a turning point for the real estate market in Ontario? With a general drop of 12.2% in the value of real estate transactions between December 2021 and December 2022 across the province, we can already say yes. This barometer analyses the dynamics of the Ontarian and Canadian real estate market province by province, city by city.
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[[translations.legend2]]Real estate prices drop by 12% in Ontario and British Columbia, Atlantic provinces still on the rise
While real estate prices peaked in 2021 in Canada, 2022 seems to be the beginning of a trend reversal. Even though prices continued to increase in 7 of the 10 Canadian provinces between December 2021 and December 2022, they are beginning to drop sharply in the 3 most populated provinces. On the graph below, we can distinguish several dynamics:
- With almost 12% drop in their real estate prices in one year, British Columbia (-11.9%) and Ontario (-12.2%) seem to have passed their peak, although the average value of a transaction remains very high there.
- Real estate prices in Quebec are also beginning to go down, with a 0.9% decline in the average value of a real estate transaction between December 2021 and December 2022 - at levels still far from those of Ontario and British-Colombia.
- As for the Prairie provinces, their prices have generally stagnated in 2022: +2.8% in Alberta, +0.7% in Manitoba and +0.3% in Saskatchewan
- Finally, only the Atlantic provinces still show a sustained increase in the average value of real estate transactions between December 2021 and December 2022, with an increase of between 5.6 and 6.3% depending on the provinces.
Prices down more than 15% in Orangeville, Cambridge, Kitchener and Hamilton, Toronto soars too
The Ontarian real estate seems to have entered a downtrend cycle in 2022. Within the 38 localities we studied, only 6 have seen their real estate prices grow in 2022. We particularly note that :
- Real prices went down in Greater Toronto (-8.9%) in 2022, as well as in many neighboring cities such as Mississauga (-12.3%), Hamilton (-14.8%) and Oakville (-11.6%)
- Only Timmins, Cochrane and the Timinskaning Districts register an exceptional rise in their real estate prices this year in Ontario : +26.4% between December 2021 and Decembre 2022. Sault Ste. Marie see its prices going up (+7.3%), as well as Sarnia-Lambton (+6.7%).
- Orangeville (-26%), Cambridge (-18%), Kitchener-Waterloo (15.1%) and Hamilton-Burlington (-14.8%) are the Ontarian areas where real estate prices declined the most in 2022.
| Cities | Average transaction (Dec.2021) | Average transaction (Dec.2022) | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timmins, Cochrane and Timinskaning Districts | $216,652 | $273,782 | +26,4% |
| Sault Ste. Marie | $256,700 | $275,400 | +7,3% |
| Sarnia-Lambton | $511,556 | $545,917 | +6,7% |
| Cornwall & District | $384,092 | $392,691 | +2,2% |
| Bancroft & area | $469,500 | $474,800 | +1,1% |
| Windsor Essex | $562,800 | $563,900 | +0,2% |
| Kingston & area | $529,300 | $557,400 | -5.0% |
| London & St Thomas | $667,500 | $566,600 | -15,1% |
| Grey Bruce Owen Sound | $555,000 | $542,700 | -2.2% |
| Tillonsburg District | $590,900 | $577,300 | -2.3% |
| Simcoe & District | $581,800 | $565,700 | -2.8% |
| Rideau-St. Lawrence | $540,200 | $524,400 | -2.9% |
| Ottawa | $640,100 | $610,800 | -4.6% |
| Peterborough & the Kawarthas | $682,500 | $649,700 | -4.8% |
| Lakelands | $712,300 | $676,400 | -5.0% |
| Huron Perth | $568,000 | $537,900 | -5.3% |
| North Bay | $386,800 | $364,700 | -5.7% |
| Northumberland Hills | $754,800 | $690,500 | -8.5% |
| Sudbury | $414,100 | $377,500 | -8.8% |
| Greater Toronto | $1,187,200 | $1,081,400 | -8.9% |
| Thunder Bay | $293,598 | $266,054 | -9.4% |
| Guelph & District | $885,000 | $796,900 | -10.0% |
| Quinte & District | $594,400 | $532,300 | -10.4% |
| Oakville-Milton | $1,449,300 | $1,280,600 | -11.6% |
| Barrie & District | $886,100 | $782,900 | -11.6% |
| Kawartha Lakes | $720,900 | $637,300 | -11.6% |
| York Region | $1,426,021 | $1,258,343 | -11.8% |
| Woodstock-Ingersoll | $702,300 | $619,000 | -11.9% |
| Niagara Region | $717,800 | $631,600 | -12.0% |
| Chatham-Kent | $437,332 | $384,644 | -12.0% |
| Brantford Region | $743,400 | $653,000 | -12.2% |
| Mississauga | $1,174,700 | $1,030,100 | -12.3% |
| Renfrew County | $423,211 | $364,604 | -13.8% |
| Durham Region | $1,012,920 | $872,146 | -13.9% |
| Hamilton-Burlington | $942,200 | $803,200 | -14.8% |
| Kitchener-Waterloo | $839,800 | $713,400 | -15.1% |
| Cambridge | $870,300 | $713,700 | -18.0% |
| Orangeville | $967,317 | $716,294 | -26.0% |
As of the end of 2022, Vancouver overtakes Toronto as the most expensive city to buy real estate in Canada
The dynamics of the real estate market in large cities sometimes differ from those of the provinces taken as a whole. Thus, we observe on the graph below that:
- As of the end of 2022, Vancouver, with an average transaction of $1.11 million (-3.3% in one year), once again became the most expensive metropolis in Canada ahead of Toronto, whose average value per transaction fell by 8.9 % ($1.08 million at the end of 2022). Ottawa completes the podium, despite a 4.6% price decline in 2022 in the federal capital.
- In the ranking of major cities where buying real estate is the most expensive at the end of 2022 in Canada, Montreal slips one place to 5th (with an average transaction of $497,800, down 0.7%), overtaken by Calgary where prices jumped 8.1% compared to the end of 2021.
Timmins & Cochrane is the 2nd Canadian district where real estate prices increased the most in 2022: +26.4%
Despite real estate prices falling by 12% across the national territory between December 2021 and December 2022, some cities and districts are still doing well. We find in the table below the 15 cities or districts in which the real estate transactions increased the most:
- South-Central Alberta, with an increase of 27.1%, is the Canadian territory where real estate prices have increased the most in 2022.
- Among the 15 cities and districts where real estate prices increased the most in 2022, 5 are located in Nova Scotia.
- Despite real estate prices dropping in Ontario, Timmins & Cochrane is the 2nd place where the average transaction value increased the most in 2022: +26.4%.
| Rank | City / District | Province | Average transaction (Dec. 2021) | Average transaction (Dec. 2022) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Central Alberta | Alberta | $189,423 | $240,719 | +27.1% |
| 2 | Timmins & Cochrane | Ontario | $216,652 | $273,782 | +26.4% |
| 3 | Portage la Prairie | Manitoba | $262,552 | $321,627 | +22.5% |
| 4 | Medicine Hat | Alberta | $273,998 | $322,990 | +17.9% |
| 5 | Brandon | Manitoba | $216,150 | $254468 | +17.7% |
| 6 | Yarmouth | Nova Scotia | $180,600 | $207,400 | +14.8% |
| 7 | Northern Nova Scotia | Nova Scotia | $183,700 | $207,900 | +13.2% |
| 8 | South Shore | Nova Scotia | $242,000 | $273,200 | +12.9% |
| 9 | Lethbridge | Alberta | $316,279 | $347,914 | +10% |
| 10 | Trois-Rivières | Quebec | $274,205 | $301,719 | +10% |
| 11 | Highland | Nova Scotia | $190,300 | $208,800 | +9.7% |
| 12 | Calgary | Alberta | $468,300 | $506,400 | +8.1% |
| 13 | Annapolis Valley | Nova Scotia | $266,500 | $288,200 | +8.1% |
| 14 | Sherbrooke | Quebec | $396,974 | $427,278 | +7.6% |
| 15 | Great Moncton | New-Brunswick | $282,400 | $303,600 | +7.5% |
Our methodology
In addition to its expert editorial line around insurance and financial products, HelloSafe explores broader topics relating to global consumption in Canada and around the world. The aim is to decipher certain complex subjects for consumers and to provide everyone with the latest information. It is within this framework that HelloSafe regularly carries out studies on trends relating to current personal finance in Canada.
This study is based on data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), supplemented by data provided by some of our business partners. The comparisons made were made month to month, between December 2021 and December 2022.
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