[Barometer] Historic 11.9% drop in British Columbia real estate prices in 2022
Is the year 2022 already a turning point for the real estate market in British Columbia? With a drop of 11.9% of the average real estate transaction prices between December 2021 and December 2022 in the province, we can already answer 'yes' to this question. This barometer analyses the dynamics of Canada's real estate market province by province, city by city.
For the first time in years, real estate prices declined in Vancouver in 2022 : -3.3%
With an overall -11.9% decline in real estate prices, British Columbia's real estate market seems to have entered a downtrend. However, as we observe on the graph below, the situation depends on the areas of the province:
- The Greater Vancouver area, which reached record levels in 2021, eventually started to see its real estate prices declining: -3.3% between December 2021 and 2022, with an average transaction price now at $1.11 million
- Fraser Valley (-8.7%), Chilliwack (-16.2%) and Powell River (-17.6%) experienced even bigger falls in their real estate prices in 2022, with average transaction prices falling down
- Only Vancouver Island (+0.9%) and Northern BC (+0.4%) maintain a narrow growth of their real estate prices - with an average transaction price that grew 2.3% in Victoria.
Real estate prices drop by 12% in Ontario and British Columbia, Atlantic provinces still on the rise
While real estate prices peaked in 2021 in Canada, 2022 seems to be the beginning of a trend reversal. Even though prices continued to increase in 7 of the 10 Canadian provinces between December 2021 and December 2022, they are beginning to drop sharply in the 3 most populated provinces. On the graph below, we can distinguish several dynamics:
- With almost 12% drop in their real estate prices in one year, British Columbia (-11.9%) and Ontario (-12.2%) seem to have passed their peak, although the average value of a transaction remains very high there.
- Real estate prices in Quebec are also beginning to go down, with a 0.9% decline in the average value of a real estate transaction between December 2021 and December 2022 - at levels still far from those of Ontario and British-Colombia.
- As for the Prairie provinces, their prices have generally stagnated in 2022: +2.8% in Alberta, +0.7% in Manitoba and +0.3% in Saskatchewan
- Finally, only the Atlantic provinces still show a sustained increase in the average value of real estate transactions between December 2021 and December 2022, with an increase of between 5.6 and 6.3% depending on the provinces.
As of the end of 2022, Vancouver overtakes Toronto as the most expensive city to buy real estate in Canada
The dynamics of the real estate market in large cities sometimes differ from those of the provinces taken as a whole. Thus, we observe on the graph below that:
- As of the end of 2022, Vancouver, with an average transaction of $1.11 million (-3.3% in one year), once again became the most expensive metropolis in Canada ahead of Toronto, whose average value per transaction fell by 8.9 % ($1.08 million at the end of 2022). Ottawa completes the podium, despite a 4.6% price decline in 2022 in the federal capital.
- In the ranking of major cities where buying real estate is the most expensive at the end of 2022 in Canada, Montreal slips one place to 5th (with an average transaction of $497,800, down 0.7%), overtaken by Calgary where prices jumped 8.1% compared to the end of 2021.
South Central Alberta is the Canadian district where real estate prices increased the most in 2022: +27.1%
Despite real estate prices falling by 12% across the national territory between December 2021 and December 2022, some cities and districts are still doing well. We find in the table below the 15 cities or districts in which the real estate transactions increased the most:
- South-Central Alberta, with an increase of 27.1%, is the Canadian territory where real estate prices have increased the most in 2022.
- Among the 15 cities and districts where real estate prices increased the most in 2022, 5 are located in Nova Scotia.
- Despite real estate prices dropping in Ontario, Timmins & Cochrane is the 2nd place where the average transaction value increased the most in 2022: +26.4%.
|Rank||City / District||Province||Average transaction|
|1||South Central Alberta||Alberta||$189,423||$240,719||+27.1%|
|2||Timmins & Cochrane||Ontario||$216,652||$273,782||+26.4%|
|3||Portage la Prairie||Manitoba||$262,552||$321,627||+22.5%|
|7||Northern Nova Scotia||Nova Scotia||$183,700||$207,900||+13.2%|
|8||South Shore||Nova Scotia||$242,000||$273,200||+12.9%|
|13||Annapolis Valley||Nova Scotia||$266,500||$288,200||+8.1%|
In addition to its expert editorial line around insurance and financial products, HelloSafe explores broader topics relating to global consumption in Canada and around the world. The aim is to decipher certain complex subjects for consumers and to provide everyone with the latest information. It is within this framework that HelloSafe regularly carries out studies on trends relating to current personal finance in Canada.
This study is based on data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), supplemented by data provided by some of our business partners. The comparisons made were made month to month, between December 2021 and December 2022.
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