USD/TRY: Buy or sell?
ScoreThe USD/TRY pair, representing the U.S. Dollar against the Turkish Lira, is a focal point for investors drawn to high-volatility emerging markets. Currently trading around 40.0662, the pair has seen significant upward movement, gaining over 21% in the past year. Forecasts suggest a continued bullish trend, with a target towards 41.00 in the next 2-3 months and a 12-month consensus between 41.77-43.85. The Lira's weakness is fundamentally driven by Turkey's domestic challenges, including high inflation (35.05%) and significant political instability. Despite the central bank's high interest rate policy (46%), underlying pressures continue to weigh on the Lira. According to our analysis, the combination of strong bullish technical signals and persistent fundamental risks in Turkey suggests the upward trend is likely to continue. This environment may offer strategic entry points for long positions, with an initial price objective around the 41.00 level.
- ✅Significant appreciation potential, with over 21% gain in the last year.
- ✅Clear and strong bullish signals from a consensus of technical indicators.
- ✅High volatility creates frequent trading opportunities for active investors.
- ✅Price is highly responsive to scheduled Turkish monetary policy announcements.
- ✅A well-defined long-term upward trend is supported by fundamental factors.
- ❌Extreme sensitivity to unpredictable political events within Turkey, causing sudden gaps.
- ❌Can have relatively high trading spreads due to its significant volatility.
Score- ✅Significant appreciation potential, with over 21% gain in the last year.
- ✅Clear and strong bullish signals from a consensus of technical indicators.
- ✅High volatility creates frequent trading opportunities for active investors.
- ✅Price is highly responsive to scheduled Turkish monetary policy announcements.
- ✅A well-defined long-term upward trend is supported by fundamental factors.
USD/TRY: Buy or sell?
- ✅Significant appreciation potential, with over 21% gain in the last year.
- ✅Clear and strong bullish signals from a consensus of technical indicators.
- ✅High volatility creates frequent trading opportunities for active investors.
- ✅Price is highly responsive to scheduled Turkish monetary policy announcements.
- ✅A well-defined long-term upward trend is supported by fundamental factors.
- ❌Extreme sensitivity to unpredictable political events within Turkey, causing sudden gaps.
- ❌Can have relatively high trading spreads due to its significant volatility.
Score- ✅Significant appreciation potential, with over 21% gain in the last year.
- ✅Clear and strong bullish signals from a consensus of technical indicators.
- ✅High volatility creates frequent trading opportunities for active investors.
- ✅Price is highly responsive to scheduled Turkish monetary policy announcements.
- ✅A well-defined long-term upward trend is supported by fundamental factors.
- USD/TRY in brief
- Price: Evolution and Real-Time Chart
- USD/TRY Forecast: Should you invest in this currency pair?
- Trading Profile: How to Trade the Pair Effectively?
- Our 10 tips for trading the USD/TRY
- How to trade the USD/TRY pair?
- The latest news on the pair
- FAQ
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At HelloSafe, our expert has been monitoring the USD/TRY pair for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users in France trust us to analyze market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are published for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.
USD/TRY in brief
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| 📛 Pair Name | USD/TRY |
| 🗂️ Pair Type | Exotic |
| 🌍 Regions Concerned | United States / Turkey |
| 💶 Base Currency | USD (US Dollar) |
| 💵 Quote Currency | TRY (Turkish Lira) |
| 📊 1-Month Variation | +2.16% |
| 📉 Average Volatility | 0.27% |
| 📈 12-Month High | 41.2164 TRY |
| 📉 12-Month Low | 32.6804 TRY |
| 💹 Current Rate | 40.0662 TRY (as of July 10, 2025) |
Price: Evolution and Real-Time Chart
The USD/TRY exchange rate is a critical barometer of Turkey's economic health and its relationship with the global financial system. As an exotic pair, its movements are often pronounced, driven by a combination of factors including Turkey's monetary policy decisions (particularly interest rates set by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey), high inflation rates, domestic political developments, and broader geopolitical tensions. For traders in Canada, understanding these drivers is key to navigating the pair's significant volatility and identifying potential opportunities.
| Period | Approximate price level | Variation (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | From 39.80 to 40.06 | +0.68% |
| 1 month | From 39.25 to 40.06 | +2.06% |
| Since January 1st | From 35.28 to 40.06 | +13.57% |
| Over 12 months | High: 41.21 / Low: 32.68 | +21.78% |
The average daily volatility for USD/TRY over the past 30 days has been exceptionally high, often exceeding 1,500 pips. This level of volatility presents both significant opportunities and substantial risks. For active traders, it means potential for large profits within a single day, but it also translates to wider spreads and requires strict risk management, including the use of stop-loss orders, to mitigate the risk of rapid, adverse price movements.
Recent trends show the USD/TRY consolidating near its historical highs, consistently finding support above key moving averages. While technical indicators point towards a strong bullish momentum, the pair is currently testing a significant resistance zone. The underlying fundamental driver remains the long-term depreciation of the Turkish Lira, fueled by persistent inflation and political uncertainty, which continues to support the pair's upward trajectory despite short-term pullbacks.
USD/TRY Forecast: Should you invest in this currency pair?
As of July 2025, the USD/TRY pair is navigating a complex landscape defined by Turkey's aggressive monetary policy and persistent underlying economic challenges. The Turkish Lira has been under severe pressure for years, with the USD/TRY exchange rate consistently reaching new all-time highs. While the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has implemented drastic interest rate hikes to combat rampant inflation, political uncertainty and market skepticism continue to weigh on the currency. The pair is currently consolidating near the 40.00 level, with recent volatility being somewhat contained compared to previous periods, but the long-term bullish trend remains firmly intact.
Fundamental analysis
The primary driver of the USD/TRY is the tug-of-war between Turkey's orthodox monetary policy and its deep-seated economic and political risks.
- Interest rates and inflation: The CBRT has raised its key policy rate to a staggering 46% to fight inflation, which, despite a slight decrease, stood at an extremely high 35.05% in June 2025. This creates a massive interest rate differential with the United States. In theory, such high rates should attract foreign capital and strengthen the Lira. However, the market's lack of confidence, born from years of unpredictable policy, has muted this effect. The key question is whether the CBRT will maintain its restrictive stance long enough to restore credibility.
- Central bank decisions: The market is focused on the CBRT's commitment to its disinflationary path. Any sign of political pressure to prematurely cut rates could trigger another sharp sell-off in the Lira. Conversely, the US Federal Reserve's policy is also critical; a hawkish Fed strengthens the dollar and adds to the upward pressure on USD/TRY.
- Political and economic stability: Geopolitical tensions and domestic political developments in Turkey are significant risk factors that often override traditional economic indicators. Investors closely watch for any signs of instability that could undermine the current economic program.
Key economic releases to monitor:
- CBRT Interest Rate Decisions (Next: July 24, 2025)
- Turkish and US monthly inflation data (CPI)
- Turkish GDP and industrial production figures
- US Federal Reserve (FOMC) meetings and statements
Good to know
The USD/TRY is highly sensitive to global risk sentiment. As an emerging market currency, the Turkish Lira typically weakens (USD/TRY rises) during periods of global risk aversion, when investors move capital to safe-haven assets like the US Dollar or gold. Conversely, in a "risk-on" environment where global stock indices are rising, the Lira may see temporary relief.
Technical analysis
The technical picture for USD/TRY is overwhelmingly bullish, though the pair is showing signs of short-term consolidation.
- Trend: The long-term trend is undeniably upward. The pair has been in a strong bullish channel for several years, consistently posting higher highs and higher lows. The price is currently trading near its historical highs, indicating sustained buying pressure.
- Support and resistance:
- Key support is found at the psychological 40.00 level, followed by the area around 39.87. A break below this zone could signal a deeper, albeit likely corrective, pullback.
- Immediate resistance lies near the recent high of 40.07, with the 52-week high at 41.2164 being the next major upside target.
- Technical indicators:
- Moving Averages (MA): The price is trading well above all major moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200-day), which confirms the strength and health of the bullish trend.
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is hovering in neutral territory around 54.5, suggesting the pair is not currently overbought and has room to move higher.
- MACD & Stochastics: The MACD is showing a buy signal, supporting upward momentum. However, the Stochastic indicator is in the overbought zone, which may point to a potential for consolidation or a minor pullback before the trend resumes.
Potential scenarios include a bullish continuation if the price breaks decisively above resistance, targeting 41.00 and beyond. Alternatively, a failure to break higher could lead to a period of range-bound trading or a rejection from resistance, pushing the price back toward the 40.00 support level.
Trading Profile: How to Trade the Pair Effectively?
The USD/TRY pair is popular among traders for its distinct characteristics. Its high volatility, driven by Turkey's unique economic and political landscape, creates significant price movements that can offer substantial trading opportunities. The pair is also known for its strong, persistent trends, making it a favorite for traders who employ trend-following strategies. As one of the most traded exotic pairs, it is widely accessible through most retail forex brokers.
Recommended trading strategy
| Trading Style | Relevance on USD/TRY | Why? |
|---|---|---|
| Scalping | Low | Not recommended. The typical spreads on USD/TRY are too wide for scalping, and sudden political news can cause unpredictable spikes that make short-term strategies extremely risky. |
| Day Trading | Medium | Possible for experienced traders. This requires focusing on sessions with high volatility and trading around key Turkish or US economic data releases. However, the risk of sudden reversals remains high. |
| Swing Trading | High | Highly relevant. The pair is heavily influenced by political events and central bank policy decisions, which create strong multi-day or multi-week trends. Swing traders can capitalize on these sustained moves. |
| Long Term | Very High | Excellent for position trading. The fundamental economic divergence between the US and Turkey has historically created a powerful and persistent long-term uptrend in the USD/TRY pair. |
Maximum volatility hours
The highest volatility for USD/TRY typically occurs when both the European (which includes Turkey) and North American markets are open.
| Time Period (CET) | Activity Level |
|---|---|
| 09:00 - 14:00 | Medium to High (European session) |
| 14:00 - 18:00 | High (European/US session overlap) |
| 18:00 - 22:00 | Low to Medium (Late US session) |
Expert tip
For active day trading, the most opportune window is the overlap between the European and US sessions, from approximately 14:00 to 18:00 CET (8:00 AM to 12:00 PM EST). This period combines liquidity from both markets and often sees the release of key US economic data, leading to the most significant price movements.
Liquidity and traded volume
- Average Daily Volume: While lower than major pairs, USD/TRY is one of the most heavily traded exotic currency pairs in the world.
- Market Share: It represents a significant portion of the emerging market currency trading volume, although it is a small fraction of the total global forex market.
- Typical Spreads: Spreads are significantly wider than for major pairs like EUR/USD. This is due to its higher volatility and comparatively lower liquidity, and it is a critical factor to consider in your trading costs.
Recommended leverage and risk management
In Canada, forex brokers are regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), which sets margin requirements. For exotic pairs like USD/TRY, the required margin is typically higher, meaning the maximum available leverage is lower than for major pairs, often around 10:1 to 20:1 (or a 10% to 5% margin rate).
- Beginner: 2:1 to 5:1. It is crucial to start with very low leverage to understand the pair's extreme volatility without risking significant capital.
- Intermediate: 5:1 to 10:1. For traders with a proven strategy and solid risk management skills.
- Advanced: Up to the maximum allowed by your broker (e.g., 20:1). Only for highly experienced traders who fully understand the risks associated with high leverage on a volatile exotic pair.
Watch out!
Risk management is not optional when trading USD/TRY. Always adhere to these rules:
1. Use a stop-loss on every single trade.
2. Never risk more than 1-2% of your trading capital on a single position.
3. Be aware of the political and economic calendar for Turkey, as news can cause extreme and sudden price gaps.
Our 10 tips for trading the USD/TRY
| Advice | Why it's important |
|---|---|
| 1. Prioritize Fundamental Analysis | USD/TRY is heavily driven by Turkish monetary policy, inflation data, and political stability. Technical signals can be easily overridden by a surprise announcement from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) or a major political event. |
| 2. Monitor CBRT Meetings | The CBRT's interest rate decisions are the single most important catalyst for this pair. Mark their meeting dates on your calendar and be prepared for extreme volatility before, during, and after announcements. |
| 3. Keep Position Sizes Small | Due to its extreme volatility, even small price changes in USD/TRY can result in significant profit or loss. Using smaller position sizes is crucial for managing risk and protecting your capital from sudden, sharp moves. |
| 4. Use Wider Stop-Losses | The pair's high daily range can easily trigger tight stop-losses, leading to premature exits. If you use stops, place them far from the current price, outside of typical daily "noise," to give your trade room to breathe. |
| 5. Understand Swap Fees/Credits | The interest rate differential between the USD and TRY is substantial. Holding a long USD/TRY position (buying) typically earns you a daily positive swap (carry), while a short position incurs a high negative swap. This is a critical factor for swing and position traders. |
| 6. Follow the Long-Term Trend | Historically, USD/TRY has been in a strong, persistent uptrend due to structural economic issues in Turkey. Trading against this dominant trend is extremely risky and generally not advisable for novice traders. |
| 7. Be Aware of High Spreads | As an exotic currency pair, USD/TRY has wider spreads than major pairs like EUR/USD. Factor this cost into your trading strategy, as it can impact the profitability of short-term trades. |
| 8. Stay Informed on Turkish Politics | Geopolitical news and domestic political developments in Turkey are major drivers of the Lira's value. Follow reputable news sources to stay ahead of events that could impact market sentiment. |
| 9. Avoid Trading During Low Liquidity | Spreads can widen significantly during illiquid market hours (e.g., late North American session/overnight). Stick to the London and New York sessions for better pricing and execution. |
| 10. Have a Clear Exit Strategy | Given the potential for sudden reversals, always know your exit plan before entering a trade. Define both your profit target and your maximum acceptable loss to maintain trading discipline. |
Effective strategies on USD/TRY
| Strategy | Description | Relevance on USD/TRY |
|---|---|---|
| Trend Following | Using technical indicators like Moving Averages (e.g., 50-day, 200-day) to identify and trade in the direction of the dominant long-term trend. | Very High. This is one of the most effective strategies due to the pair's historically strong and persistent uptrend. Traders often look to buy on pullbacks to key moving averages. |
| Breakout Trading | Entering a position when the price breaks through a key level of support or resistance, often confirmed by a surge in volume. | High. Breakouts frequently occur following major news events, such as CBRT rate decisions or significant political announcements, leading to powerful, sustained moves. |
| News Trading | Placing trades based on the outcome (or anticipated outcome) of scheduled economic events, like inflation reports (CPI) or central bank press conferences. | High (but High Risk). This strategy can be very profitable but requires skill and speed. The market reaction can be explosive, and slippage is a significant risk. |
| Carry Trade | Holding a long position (buying USD/TRY) to profit from the positive interest rate differential (swap), in addition to any potential capital appreciation. | Very High. The substantial positive swap for long positions makes this a popular long-term strategy. It involves buying the pair and holding it for weeks or months to accumulate interest. |
Backtests and historical behaviors
- Historical Variation Zone: The pair is characterized by a long-term, structural uptrend, meaning the Turkish Lira has consistently depreciated against the US Dollar. Over the past several years, USD/TRY has moved from single digits to highs above 40.00, marking one of the most significant and persistent trends in the Forex market.
- Seasonality: USD/TRY is less influenced by traditional seasonality and more by event-driven catalysts. Its direction is overwhelmingly dictated by Turkey's economic and political calendar rather than specific months or seasons.
- Average Performance: Historically, the average monthly performance has been strongly positive for those holding long USD/TRY positions. The pair has seen multi-year gains, with annual returns often in the double digits, reflecting the fundamental weakness of the Lira.
- Most Volatile Days: Volatility consistently peaks on days of CBRT monetary policy meetings (typically Thursdays), when monthly inflation data is released, and during periods of major political or geopolitical tension involving Turkey. These events are the primary sources of large daily price swings.
How to trade the USD/TRY pair?
| Step | Description |
|---|---|
| Choose a reliable broker | Select a broker regulated by a reputable authority, such as the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) in Canada. Ensure they offer the USD/TRY pair, provide competitive spreads, and have a stable trading platform. |
| Understand the fundamentals | Follow key economic factors that drive the pair's value. This includes interest rate decisions from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and the US Federal Reserve, Turkish inflation data, and geopolitical events in Turkey, which heavily impact the Lira's volatility. |
| Analyze the charts | Use technical analysis to identify trends, support, and resistance levels. For a volatile pair like USD/TRY, indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to spot overbought/oversold conditions and the MACD to gauge momentum can be particularly useful. |
| Define your trading strategy | Establish a clear plan before trading. Given USD/TRY's strong directional moves, trend-following or swing trading strategies are often employed. Define your entry and exit criteria based on your analysis and stick to them. |
| Place your orders and manage risk | Crucial for USD/TRY. Always use a stop-loss order to limit potential losses on each trade. Practice sound money management by determining your position size carefully, risking only a small percentage (e.g., 1-2%) of your trading capital per trade. |
| Monitor your positions and adjust if needed | Actively track your open trades. Stay informed about upcoming economic news that could cause sharp movements. Be prepared to adjust your stop-loss or take-profit orders if the market dynamics change, in line with your pre-defined strategy. |
The latest news on the pair
On July 10, 2025, a major political development in Turkey has put the lira under pressure. President Erdogan's new "Kurdish bet" is seen by markets as a high-stakes move for his political survival. This has created significant uncertainty, causing the USD/TRY to climb by 0.52% in intraday trading to reach 40.0662 as investors price in higher political risk.
On June 25, 2025, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) decided to hold its main policy rate steady at 46%. While this decision was largely anticipated, the accompanying statement reiterated the bank's commitment to tight monetary policy. In the following sessions, the USD/TRY remained stable, trading in a narrow range around the 40.00 level as the market had already factored in this stance.
On June 15, 2025, Turkey released its latest inflation data, showing a slight decrease to 35.05% for May. Although the figure remains extremely high, the minor deceleration was viewed as a small step in the right direction. The news provided temporary relief for the lira, causing the USD/TRY to briefly dip below the 40.00 mark before resuming its upward trajectory.
In early June 2025, U.S. employment data (Non-Farm Payrolls) came in stronger than expected, signaling a resilient American economy. This development reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve might delay further interest rate cuts. The subsequent strengthening of the US dollar on global markets pushed the USD/TRY pair higher, testing resistance levels above 40.10.
FAQ
What is the current trend for USD/TRY?
The dominant trend for USD/TRY is strongly bullish, driven by persistent high inflation in Turkey and significant political uncertainty. The pair has consistently reached new highs over the past year, gaining over 20%. Technically, the price remains well above key long-term moving averages, which act as dynamic support for the uptrend. This powerful upward momentum is fundamentally supported by the wide interest rate differential between the US and Turkey and ongoing investor concerns about the lira's stability.
Is it a good time to buy USD/TRY?
This decision depends heavily on your risk tolerance, as the pair is trading at historically high levels and shows overbought signals on some technical indicators. While the underlying bullish trend is powerful, the pair is highly sensitive to political news or sudden shifts in central bank policy, which could trigger sharp reversals. A potential strategy for aggressive traders might involve a confirmed breakout above recent resistance, while more cautious investors may prefer to wait for a pullback toward a support level before considering a position.
Can you trade USD/TRY with a small capital?
Yes, trading USD/TRY with a small capital is possible, mainly due to the leverage offered by forex brokers, which allows you to control a larger position with a smaller initial investment. However, as an exotic pair, USD/TRY can have wider spreads and experience bouts of high volatility, especially around news events. It is therefore crucial to practice strict risk management, including using stop-losses and trading with small position sizes, to protect your capital from significant losses.
What are the best hours to trade USD/TRY?
The most active and liquid hours for trading USD/TRY are typically during the overlap of the London and New York sessions, from 8 AM to 12 PM EST. During this window, trading volume is at its highest, which often results in tighter spreads and more significant price movements. It is also wise to monitor the Turkish market open (around 2 AM EST) for any early volatility. Pay close attention to days with major economic data releases from either Turkey (CBRT rate decisions) or the U.S. (Fed meetings, inflation reports).
What strategy works best for this pair?
Given its strong trending nature, breakout strategies are often effective for USD/TRY. This involves identifying key resistance levels and entering a trade when the price breaks through with strong momentum. Trend-following strategies that use moving averages (e.g., the 50-day or 200-day MA) to confirm the underlying direction are also popular. Additionally, trading after major news announcements can be profitable, but it requires disciplined risk management to navigate the extreme volatility that often follows such events.
What is the current trend for USD/TRY?
The dominant trend for USD/TRY is strongly bullish, driven by persistent high inflation in Turkey and significant political uncertainty. The pair has consistently reached new highs over the past year, gaining over 20%. Technically, the price remains well above key long-term moving averages, which act as dynamic support for the uptrend. This powerful upward momentum is fundamentally supported by the wide interest rate differential between the US and Turkey and ongoing investor concerns about the lira's stability.
Is it a good time to buy USD/TRY?
This decision depends heavily on your risk tolerance, as the pair is trading at historically high levels and shows overbought signals on some technical indicators. While the underlying bullish trend is powerful, the pair is highly sensitive to political news or sudden shifts in central bank policy, which could trigger sharp reversals. A potential strategy for aggressive traders might involve a confirmed breakout above recent resistance, while more cautious investors may prefer to wait for a pullback toward a support level before considering a position.
Can you trade USD/TRY with a small capital?
Yes, trading USD/TRY with a small capital is possible, mainly due to the leverage offered by forex brokers, which allows you to control a larger position with a smaller initial investment. However, as an exotic pair, USD/TRY can have wider spreads and experience bouts of high volatility, especially around news events. It is therefore crucial to practice strict risk management, including using stop-losses and trading with small position sizes, to protect your capital from significant losses.
What are the best hours to trade USD/TRY?
The most active and liquid hours for trading USD/TRY are typically during the overlap of the London and New York sessions, from 8 AM to 12 PM EST. During this window, trading volume is at its highest, which often results in tighter spreads and more significant price movements. It is also wise to monitor the Turkish market open (around 2 AM EST) for any early volatility. Pay close attention to days with major economic data releases from either Turkey (CBRT rate decisions) or the U.S. (Fed meetings, inflation reports).
What strategy works best for this pair?
Given its strong trending nature, breakout strategies are often effective for USD/TRY. This involves identifying key resistance levels and entering a trade when the price breaks through with strong momentum. Trend-following strategies that use moving averages (e.g., the 50-day or 200-day MA) to confirm the underlying direction are also popular. Additionally, trading after major news announcements can be profitable, but it requires disciplined risk management to navigate the extreme volatility that often follows such events.
