USD/CHF: Buy or Sell?
ScoreThe USD/CHF, nicknamed the "Swissie," is a major currency pair on the foreign exchange market, highly regarded for its safe-haven status. As of July 10, 2025, the pair is trading around 0.7976, having experienced significant downward pressure throughout the year, marking a recent low not seen since 2011. This recent volatility presents a complex but interesting landscape for Canadian investors looking towards the rest of 2025.
Forecasts:
- End of July 2025: 0.7780
- September 2025: 0.8030
- End of 2025: 0.8100
- Long-term: Potential for a sustained recovery.
Currently trading near 0.7976, the USD/CHF has seen a sharp decline in 2025, touching its lowest point in over a decade before showing early signs of a rebound. This drop was largely driven by the Swiss franc's strength as a safe-haven asset. However, recent technical indicators, such as the price moving above key averages and an exit from 'oversold' territory, suggest a potential shift in momentum. According to our analysis, the pair appears to be at a pivotal point where the downward trend could be losing steam. This may present an environment for traders to watch for a potential recovery, with a medium-term objective around the 0.8100 level.
The essential to know about USD/CHF
Comparative Performance: The Swiss franc has shown remarkable strength for most of 2025, pushing the USD/CHF pair to multi-year lows. However, the US dollar is showing signs of resilience, supported by solid employment data and a more assertive US trade policy.
Monetary Policies: The US Federal Reserve has signalled two potential interest rate cuts in 2025, which could influence the dollar's value. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is closely monitoring the franc's strength and may intervene in the market to prevent it from appreciating too much, which could weaken the CHF.
Economic Trends & Risk: As a classic "risk-off" pair, USD/CHF tends to fall when global market uncertainty rises, as investors flock to the Swiss franc. The pair's future direction will be heavily influenced by global trade tensions and the overall investor appetite for risk.
- ✅One of the five most traded pairs, ensuring very high liquidity and tight spreads.
- ✅Known as a safe-haven currency, offering diversification during market turbulence.
- ✅Sufficient volatility (approx. 14% annualized) creates regular trading opportunities.
- ✅Reacts predictably to key economic announcements from the US and Switzerland.
- ✅Widely available on all major trading platforms accessible to Canadian investors.
- ❌Prone to sudden, sharp movements from Swiss National Bank (SNB) currency interventions.
- ❌Its safe-haven status can sometimes lead to moves that defy technical analysis.
Score- ✅One of the five most traded pairs, ensuring very high liquidity and tight spreads.
- ✅Known as a safe-haven currency, offering diversification during market turbulence.
- ✅Sufficient volatility (approx. 14% annualized) creates regular trading opportunities.
- ✅Reacts predictably to key economic announcements from the US and Switzerland.
- ✅Widely available on all major trading platforms accessible to Canadian investors.
USD/CHF: Buy or Sell?
- ✅One of the five most traded pairs, ensuring very high liquidity and tight spreads.
- ✅Known as a safe-haven currency, offering diversification during market turbulence.
- ✅Sufficient volatility (approx. 14% annualized) creates regular trading opportunities.
- ✅Reacts predictably to key economic announcements from the US and Switzerland.
- ✅Widely available on all major trading platforms accessible to Canadian investors.
- ❌Prone to sudden, sharp movements from Swiss National Bank (SNB) currency interventions.
- ❌Its safe-haven status can sometimes lead to moves that defy technical analysis.
Score- ✅One of the five most traded pairs, ensuring very high liquidity and tight spreads.
- ✅Known as a safe-haven currency, offering diversification during market turbulence.
- ✅Sufficient volatility (approx. 14% annualized) creates regular trading opportunities.
- ✅Reacts predictably to key economic announcements from the US and Switzerland.
- ✅Widely available on all major trading platforms accessible to Canadian investors.
- End of July 2025: 0.7780
- September 2025: 0.8030
- End of 2025: 0.8100
- Long-term: Potential for a sustained recovery.
- USD/CHF in brief
- Price: Evolution and Real-Time Chart
- USD/CHF Forecast: Should You Invest in This Currency Pair?
- Trading Profile: How to Trade the Pair Effectively?
- Our 10 tips for successful USD/CHF trading
- How to trade the USD/CHF pair?
- The latest news on the pair
- FAQ
Why trust Hellosafe?
At HelloSafe, our expert has been monitoring the USD/CHF pair for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users in France trust us to analyze market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are published for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.
USD/CHF in brief
| Element | Detail |
|---|---|
| 📛 Pair name | USD/CHF |
| 🗂️ Pair type | Major pair |
| 🌍 Concerned regions | United States / Switzerland |
| 💶 Base currency | USD (United States Dollar) |
| 💵 Quoted currency | CHF (Swiss Franc) |
| 📊 1-month variation | +0.85% |
| 📉 Average volatility (30-day rolling, in %) | 0.86% |
| 📈 12-month high | 0.9202 CHF |
| 📉 12-month low | 0.7871 CHF |
| 💹 Current price | 0.7976 CHF (as of July 10, 2025) |
Price: Evolution and Real-Time Chart
The USD/CHF price, often referred to as the "Swissie," serves as a key barometer for global economic health and risk appetite. As a major currency pair, its fluctuations reflect the contrasting monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB), as well as the relative strength of their respective economies. The pair's value is driven by several factors, including interest rate differentials, key economic data releases like inflation and employment reports, and the Swiss franc's unique status as a "safe-haven" currency, which tends to strengthen during periods of geopolitical or financial market instability.
| Period | Approximate price level | Variation (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | From ~0.7955 to 0.7976 | +0.26% |
| 1 month | From ~0.7835 to 0.7976 | +1.8% |
| Since January 1st | From ~0.9065 to 0.7976 | -12.01% |
| Over 12 months | High: 0.9202 / Low: 0.7871 | -11.13% |
Over the past 30 days, the USD/CHF has shown an average daily volatility of approximately 60 to 70 pips. For active traders, this level of daily movement presents regular opportunities for short-term strategies. However, it also underscores the necessity for disciplined risk management, as the pair can experience rapid price swings within a single trading session. This makes the use of stop-loss orders essential to protect capital from adverse movements.
After a prolonged downtrend that marked most of the year and culminated in a new multi-year low near 0.7871, the USD/CHF is currently showing signs of a bullish rebound. This recovery is technically supported by the price recently crossing above several key moving averages and the RSI indicator moving out of oversold territory. The pair is now testing a significant psychological and technical resistance zone around the 0.8000 level. Fundamentally, the pair remains caught between the strength of the U.S. dollar, backed by solid economic data, and the persistent demand for the Swiss franc as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainties.
USD/CHF Forecast: Should You Invest in This Currency Pair?
In mid-2025, the USD/CHF pair is at a critical juncture, having recently rebounded from its lowest level since 2011. The market is grappling with significant uncertainty driven by divergent monetary policy outlooks between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank. After a prolonged and steep downtrend, the pair has shown a sharp, volatile recovery, leaving investors to question whether this is the beginning of a sustainable reversal or merely a short-term correction in a dominant bearish trend.
Fundamental analysis
The fundamental landscape for USD/CHF is shaped by a tug-of-war between the policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB), alongside global risk sentiment. The Fed is currently maintaining its key interest rate but has signaled the possibility of two rate cuts before the end of 2025, which could weaken the US dollar. However, recent robust US employment data (NFP) provides short-term support for the greenback.
Conversely, the Swiss National Bank is contending with a persistently strong franc, which acts as a headwind for Switzerland's export-driven economy. While the SNB has not intervened recently, it maintains a vigilant stance and has a history of taking decisive action to weaken the franc if it deems its strength excessive. Any verbal or actual intervention would put upward pressure on the USD/CHF pair. Geopolitical factors and trade tensions also play a crucial role, as the Swiss franc is a premier safe-haven asset. Increased global uncertainty tends to drive capital into the CHF, weighing on the pair.
Key economic publications to monitor include:
- U.S. Data: Consumer Price Index (CPI), Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), and GDP growth figures.
- Swiss Data: Inflation rates, unemployment data, and manufacturing PMI.
- Central Bank Meetings: FOMC and SNB press conferences and policy statements.
- Global Risk Indicators: Market volatility indices (e.g., VIX) and developments in global trade relations.
Good to know
The USD/CHF pair is highly sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment. The Swiss franc (CHF) is a classic "safe-haven" currency, meaning it tends to strengthen during times of financial stress or geopolitical uncertainty. It often exhibits a negative correlation with global stock indices like the S&P 500 and a positive correlation with other safe-haven assets like gold. However, as the US dollar also holds safe-haven status, the pair's reaction can be complex, depending on the origin of the market turmoil.
Technical analysis
The long-term technical picture for USD/CHF remains bearish, but a significant short-term bullish correction is underway. After hitting a multi-year low of 0.7871, the price has strongly rebounded, breaking above a short-term descending trendline and crossing all major moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200-day).
- Key Support Levels: Immediate support is found at the 0.7900 psychological level. The most critical support remains the 2025 low at 0.7871. A break below this level would signal a continuation of the long-term downtrend, with the next target zone around 0.7760.
- Key Resistance Levels: The pair is currently challenging immediate resistance in the 0.8000-0.8030 zone. A decisive break above this area is needed to confirm further bullish potential, with the next major resistance located at 0.8080, which corresponds to a key Fibonacci retracement level.
- Indicators:
- The RSI (14) has climbed to around 65, exiting the oversold territory and confirming a strong shift in momentum to the upside. It is now approaching overbought conditions, which could signal a potential pause or pullback in the rally.
- The MACD has crossed above its signal line and is in positive territory, validating the recent bullish momentum.
- Potential Scenarios: A bullish continuation depends on the price's ability to clear the 0.8030 resistance. Success here could fuel a move toward 0.8080. Conversely, a rejection from the current resistance zone could see the price retreat to test the cluster of moving averages around 0.7950. A failure to hold this area would suggest the recent rally was corrective, potentially putting the long-term downtrend back in focus.
Trading Profile: How to Trade the Pair Effectively?
The USD/CHF pair, often nicknamed "The Swissie," is a staple in the portfolio of many forex traders. As a major pair, it offers high liquidity and tight spreads, making it accessible for both beginners and seasoned professionals. Its status as a "safe-haven" currency pair means it often exhibits clear trends during periods of global economic uncertainty, providing distinct trading opportunities based on risk sentiment. Understanding how to navigate its unique characteristics is key to developing an effective trading approach.
Recommended trading strategy
| Style de trading | Pertinence sur USD/CHF | Pourquoi ? |
|---|---|---|
| Scalping | High | The pair's high liquidity and typically tight spreads (often 0.5-1.5 pips) are ideal for capturing small, frequent price movements with minimal transaction costs. |
| Day trading | High | Good intraday volatility, especially during session overlaps, creates clear opportunities for traders who open and close positions within the same day. |
| Swing trading | Very high | USD/CHF is strongly influenced by monetary policy divergence (Fed vs. SNB) and global risk sentiment, which creates sustained trends over several days or weeks. |
| Long terme | High | Fundamental factors, such as long-term interest rate differentials and economic stability, drive multi-month or multi-year trends, suitable for position traders. |
Maximum volatility hours
The pair is most active when both the European and US markets are open, as this is when the majority of economic data from both Switzerland and the United States is released.
| Time slot (CET) | Activity level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 09:00 - 14:00 | Moderate to High | The European session brings initial volatility and liquidity. |
| 14:00 - 18:00 | Peak | The overlap with the US session creates maximum volume and price movement. |
| 18:00 - 22:00 | Decreasing | Liquidity thins out as the European session closes, though some movement can still occur. |
Expert tip
For active trading styles like scalping and day trading, focus on the 14:00 to 18:00 CET window. This is the sweet spot where liquidity is deepest and volatility is highest, offering the best trading opportunities and the tightest spreads.
Liquidity and traded volume
- Market Share: USD/CHF is consistently ranked among the top 5 most traded currency pairs globally.
- Average Daily Volume: The pair experiences high volume, with an average of approximately 250,000 ticks per day.
- Typical Spreads: Very competitive, usually ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 pips with most retail brokers.
Recommended leverage and risk management
In Canada, forex trading is regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), which sets margin requirements. For major pairs like USD/CHF, maximum leverage is typically around 1:50. However, using maximum leverage is rarely advisable.
- Beginner: A conservative leverage of 1:5 to 1:10 is recommended to minimize risk while learning.
- Intermediate: Traders with some experience can consider leverage between 1:10 and 1:25.
- Advanced: Experienced traders with a robust strategy may use leverage up to 1:50, but only with a profound understanding of the risks involved.
Watch out!
Regardless of your experience level, proper risk management is non-negotiable. Always use a stop-loss on every trade to define your maximum acceptable loss. As a rule of thumb, never risk more than 1-2% of your total trading capital on a single position.
Our 10 tips for successful USD/CHF trading
| Tip | Why it's important |
|---|---|
| 1. Respect its "safe-haven" status | The Swiss Franc (CHF) attracts capital during global uncertainty. This means USD/CHF often falls when market fear is high, even if US data is strong. |
| 2. Monitor the Swiss National Bank (SNB) | The SNB has a history of intervening in the market to weaken the CHF. Always be aware of their statements, as they can cause sudden, high-impact volatility. |
| 3. Prioritize EU and US session overlap | Trade between 8:00 AM and 5:00 PM EST. This period offers the highest liquidity, tightest spreads, and most significant price movements. |
| 4. Watch for divergence with EUR/USD | USD/CHF has a strong negative correlation with EUR/USD. If one is rising, the other is often falling. Use this as a confirmation tool for your trade ideas. |
| 5. Use leverage wisely | As a major pair, USD/CHF is less volatile than crosses but can still move sharply. Use conservative leverage to protect your capital from unexpected swings. |
| 6. Set firm stop-losses | The pair's average daily range can be significant. A non-negotiable stop-loss protects your account from a single trade causing substantial damage. |
| 7. Follow US economic data | Key releases like the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), inflation (CPI), and Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decisions are primary drivers for the USD. |
| 8. Pay attention to key levels | The pair reacts strongly to major psychological levels (e.g., 0.8000, 0.8500) and historical price zones. These are often ideal areas for entries or exits. |
| 9. Identify the prevailing trend | Use tools like the 200-day moving average to determine the long-term trend. Trading in the direction of this trend generally increases the probability of success. |
| 10. Understand interest rate differentials | The difference between the Fed's and the SNB's interest rates is a key fundamental driver for the long-term valuation of the USD/CHF. |
Effective strategies for USD/CHF
| Strategy | Description | Relevance on USD/CHF |
|---|---|---|
| Breakout | Entering a trade when the price moves decisively through a significant level of support or resistance, often with increased volume. | Highly relevant. Breakouts on USD/CHF are common after periods of consolidation or following high-impact news from the Fed or SNB. |
| Technical Rebound | Also known as range trading. Buying at a strong support level and selling at a strong resistance level within a defined, non-trending market. | Effective when the pair is consolidating. The "Swissie" can trade in well-defined ranges for extended periods, offering clear entry and exit points. |
| News Trading | Placing trades based on the outcome of major economic announcements, such as central bank meetings, inflation data, and employment figures. | Crucial for this pair. The price is extremely sensitive to central bank rhetoric, making it a prime candidate for news-based strategies. |
| Moving Averages | Using moving averages (e.g., 50-day and 200-day) to identify the direction of the trend and potential entry signals on crossovers or pullbacks. | A solid approach for identifying and following the medium to long-term trend, which is often persistent on this pair once established. |
Backtests and historical behaviors
The USD/CHF exhibits specific historical tendencies that can inform trading decisions. Its historical range over the last 52 weeks has been wide, fluctuating between approximately 0.7871 and 0.9202, highlighting its capacity for significant directional moves. While specific monthly seasonality can vary, the pair is often influenced by broad US Dollar trends, which historically show periods of strength in the last quarter of the year. Backtesting reveals that the most volatile days of the week are typically Wednesdays and Thursdays, often coinciding with major US data releases or mid-week shifts in market sentiment. Average monthly performance can be streaky, with the pair capable of sustaining a trend for several consecutive months before a reversal.
How to trade the USD/CHF pair?
| Step | Description |
|---|---|
| Choose a reliable broker | Select a broker regulated by a reputable authority, such as the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO). Ensure they offer competitive spreads on USD/CHF, a user-friendly trading platform, and robust security for your funds. |
| Understand the fundamentals | Follow key economic announcements from both the US (Fed interest rate decisions, inflation CPI, job reports) and Switzerland (SNB policy, inflation data). Understand the Swiss Franc's (CHF) role as a "safe-haven" currency, which strengthens during global uncertainty. |
| Analyze the charts | Use technical analysis to identify the current trend and key levels. Utilize indicators like RSI to spot overbought or oversold conditions and MACD for momentum shifts. Pinpoint major support and resistance zones where the price may reverse or accelerate. |
| Define your trading strategy | Choose a strategy that fits your style, such as day trading during the London/New York session overlap for high liquidity, or swing trading based on fundamental shifts in central bank policies. Your strategy should include clear entry and exit criteria. |
| Place your orders and manage risk | For every trade, place a stop-loss order to cap potential losses and a take-profit order to secure gains at a predetermined level. Practice sound money management by risking only a small percentage (e.g., 1-2%) of your trading capital on any single trade. |
| Monitor your positions and adjust if needed | Actively track your open trades and stay informed about upcoming economic news that could impact USD/CHF. Be prepared to adjust your stop-loss or take-profit orders based on how the market evolves, and regularly review your performance to refine your strategy. |
The latest news on the pair
July 5, 2025 – The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls for June, with job creation significantly beating market expectations. This robust employment data tempered expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts, triggering a broad-based rally in the U.S. dollar. In response, the USD/CHF pair surged sharply, breaking above the 0.7950 resistance level and climbing towards the key psychological barrier of 0.8000.
June 20, 2025 – During its quarterly press conference, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) explicitly stated its concern over the rapid appreciation of the Swiss Franc, which had recently pushed the USD/CHF to a new multi-year low of 0.7872. SNB officials reinforced their willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market to counter excessive upward pressure on the CHF. This verbal intervention successfully placed a temporary floor under the pair, causing it to rebound from its lows.
June 14, 2025 – The release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May showed a notable cooling of inflation, with the headline figure coming in below consensus forecasts. The softer data immediately fueled market bets that the Federal Reserve would have more room to cut interest rates later in the year. This sentiment weighed heavily on the dollar, causing the USD/CHF to fall sharply and break below the 0.7900 support level on the day of the release.
July 2, 2025 – Data from Switzerland’s manufacturing sector, the Procure.ch Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), came in unexpectedly strong for June. The resilient figure indicated robust health in the Swiss industrial sector despite global headwinds. This provided fundamental support for the Swiss Franc, capping gains in the USD/CHF pair around the 0.7940 level and reinforcing the underlying strength of the currency ahead of the major U.S. jobs report later that week.
FAQ
What is the current trend for USD/CHF?
The USD/CHF has recently shown signs of a short-term bullish reversal after a prolonged bearish trend that pushed it to its lowest levels since 2011. This recent upward momentum is supported by the price climbing back above key moving averages and the RSI indicator exiting the oversold territory. The shift is largely influenced by strong U.S. economic data and market anticipation of potential intervention from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to weaken the franc, though the long-term downtrend remains a significant factor.
Is it a good time to buy USD/CHF?
Deciding whether to buy USD/CHF depends heavily on your risk tolerance and trading strategy, as the market presents a mixed picture. Bulls might see the recent bounce from the 0.7871 low and the break of the downtrend line as a buying opportunity, waiting for a firm move above the 0.8000 resistance for confirmation. However, bears remain cautious due to the dominant long-term downtrend and the franc's safe-haven appeal amid global uncertainties. The pair's direction will likely hinge on future decisions from the Fed and SNB.
Can you trade USD/CHF with a small capital?
Yes, USD/CHF is well-suited for traders with smaller capital due to several factors. As the fifth most traded pair globally, it offers excellent liquidity and consistently tight spreads, which minimizes transaction costs for frequent trading. Many Canadian brokers provide access to micro-lots, allowing you to open smaller positions that fit a modest account size. However, it is crucial to use leverage wisely and apply strict risk management, such as risking no more than 1-2% of your capital per trade.
What are the best hours to trade USD/CHF?
The most opportune time to trade USD/CHF is during the overlap of the London and New York sessions, typically between 8:00 AM and 12:00 PM EST. This four-hour window sees the highest trading volume and liquidity, resulting in tighter spreads and more significant price movements. Major economic announcements from both the U.S. (like jobs data or inflation) and Switzerland are often released during these hours, providing clear catalysts for volatility and trading opportunities. Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays are often the most active days.
What strategy works best for this pair?
Strategies that capitalize on volatility and key levels tend to perform well with USD/CHF. Breakout trading is effective during major news releases from the Fed or SNB, when the price can decisively break through significant support or resistance. Conversely, range trading strategies can be applied when the pair consolidates between established levels. Key indicators like the RSI can help identify overbought or oversold conditions for potential reversals, while moving averages are useful for confirming the short-term trend direction.
What is the current trend for USD/CHF?
The USD/CHF has recently shown signs of a short-term bullish reversal after a prolonged bearish trend that pushed it to its lowest levels since 2011. This recent upward momentum is supported by the price climbing back above key moving averages and the RSI indicator exiting the oversold territory. The shift is largely influenced by strong U.S. economic data and market anticipation of potential intervention from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to weaken the franc, though the long-term downtrend remains a significant factor.
Is it a good time to buy USD/CHF?
Deciding whether to buy USD/CHF depends heavily on your risk tolerance and trading strategy, as the market presents a mixed picture. Bulls might see the recent bounce from the 0.7871 low and the break of the downtrend line as a buying opportunity, waiting for a firm move above the 0.8000 resistance for confirmation. However, bears remain cautious due to the dominant long-term downtrend and the franc's safe-haven appeal amid global uncertainties. The pair's direction will likely hinge on future decisions from the Fed and SNB.
Can you trade USD/CHF with a small capital?
Yes, USD/CHF is well-suited for traders with smaller capital due to several factors. As the fifth most traded pair globally, it offers excellent liquidity and consistently tight spreads, which minimizes transaction costs for frequent trading. Many Canadian brokers provide access to micro-lots, allowing you to open smaller positions that fit a modest account size. However, it is crucial to use leverage wisely and apply strict risk management, such as risking no more than 1-2% of your capital per trade.
What are the best hours to trade USD/CHF?
The most opportune time to trade USD/CHF is during the overlap of the London and New York sessions, typically between 8:00 AM and 12:00 PM EST. This four-hour window sees the highest trading volume and liquidity, resulting in tighter spreads and more significant price movements. Major economic announcements from both the U.S. (like jobs data or inflation) and Switzerland are often released during these hours, providing clear catalysts for volatility and trading opportunities. Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays are often the most active days.
What strategy works best for this pair?
Strategies that capitalize on volatility and key levels tend to perform well with USD/CHF. Breakout trading is effective during major news releases from the Fed or SNB, when the price can decisively break through significant support or resistance. Conversely, range trading strategies can be applied when the pair consolidates between established levels. Key indicators like the RSI can help identify overbought or oversold conditions for potential reversals, while moving averages are useful for confirming the short-term trend direction.
