EUR/USD: Buy or sell?
ScoreThe EUR/USD, the most traded currency pair on the foreign exchange market, is currently experiencing a period of consolidation. As of July 10, 2025, it trades around 1.1731, following a significant upward trend over the past year which has increased its volatility and investor interest.
Forecasts for EUR/USD:
- Short-Term (1-3 months): Technical indicators suggest a consolidation or slight pullback, with the pair potentially testing the 1.1600 level.
- Medium-Term (End of 2025): The pair is expected to trade within a range, influenced by central bank decisions and trade negotiations.
- Long-Term (Analyst Consensus): A broader bullish trend is anticipated, with a potential target range of 1.25-1.35, driven by fundamental economic shifts.
With the EUR/USD currently trading near 1.1731, the pair is at a fascinating crossroads for investors. It has seen a remarkable +13% gain over the last 12 months, a powerful trend driven by improving economic sentiment in Europe and significant progress in EU-US trade negotiations. However, this upward momentum has recently slowed, with the price consolidating after reaching its highest point in years. Technical indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) are in oversold territory, while the MACD shows a sell signal, indicating potential for a short-term pullback. According to our analysis, the current price level presents a critical juncture. While a cautious approach is warranted due to these mixed signals, the positive underlying fundamentals could present opportunities for investors aligned with a longer-term bullish outlook, with key resistance at 1.1830.
The essentials to know about EUR/USD
The pair has shown strong annual performance, reaching its highest level since 2021 before entering the current consolidation phase. This reflects a significant shift in investor sentiment in favour of the euro over the past year.
Monetary policy is a key driver. The European Central Bank is expected to pause its rate-cutting cycle, while the US Federal Reserve is also holding steady. For now, the higher interest rates in the US provide some short-term support for the dollar.
Positive economic trends in Europe, including improved economic sentiment and a more expansionary fiscal policy in Germany, provide fundamental support for the euro. Progress in trade negotiations with the US is a major factor that could unlock further upside.
- ✅World's most liquid pair, ensuring very tight spreads.
- ✅Strong annual performance reflects a clear long-term upward trend.
- ✅Highly responsive to economic announcements, creating frequent trading opportunities.
- ✅Accessible on all major Canadian trading platforms for all investor types.
- ✅Moderate volatility is well-suited for various trading strategies.
- ❌Short-term technical indicators currently suggest a risk of a downward correction.
- ❌High sensitivity to central bank announcements can cause sudden market movements.
Score- ✅World's most liquid pair, ensuring very tight spreads.
- ✅Strong annual performance reflects a clear long-term upward trend.
- ✅Highly responsive to economic announcements, creating frequent trading opportunities.
- ✅Accessible on all major Canadian trading platforms for all investor types.
- ✅Moderate volatility is well-suited for various trading strategies.
EUR/USD: Buy or sell?
- ✅World's most liquid pair, ensuring very tight spreads.
- ✅Strong annual performance reflects a clear long-term upward trend.
- ✅Highly responsive to economic announcements, creating frequent trading opportunities.
- ✅Accessible on all major Canadian trading platforms for all investor types.
- ✅Moderate volatility is well-suited for various trading strategies.
- ❌Short-term technical indicators currently suggest a risk of a downward correction.
- ❌High sensitivity to central bank announcements can cause sudden market movements.
Score- ✅World's most liquid pair, ensuring very tight spreads.
- ✅Strong annual performance reflects a clear long-term upward trend.
- ✅Highly responsive to economic announcements, creating frequent trading opportunities.
- ✅Accessible on all major Canadian trading platforms for all investor types.
- ✅Moderate volatility is well-suited for various trading strategies.
- Short-Term (1-3 months): Technical indicators suggest a consolidation or slight pullback, with the pair potentially testing the 1.1600 level.
- Medium-Term (End of 2025): The pair is expected to trade within a range, influenced by central bank decisions and trade negotiations.
- Long-Term (Analyst Consensus): A broader bullish trend is anticipated, with a potential target range of 1.25-1.35, driven by fundamental economic shifts.
- EUR/USD in brief
- The Price: Evolution and Real-Time Chart
- EUR/USD Forecast: Should you invest in this currency pair?
- Trading Profile: How to Trade the Pair Effectively?
- Our 10 tips for trading the EUR/USD
- How to trade the EUR/USD pair?
- The latest news for the pair
- FAQ
Why trust Hellosafe?
At HelloSafe, our expert has been monitoring the EUR/USD pair for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users in France trust us to analyze market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are published for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.
EUR/USD in brief
| Element | Detail |
|---|---|
| 📛 Pair name | EUR/USD |
| 🗂️ Pair type | Major pair |
| 🌍 Concerned regions | Eurozone, United States |
| 💶 Base currency | EUR (Euro) |
| 💵 Quote currency | USD (US Dollar) |
| 📊 1-month variation | +7.53% (6-month variation) |
| 📉 Average volatility (30-day) | Moderate (ATR 14-day: 0.0011) |
| 📈 12-month high | 1.1829 |
| 📉 12-month low | 1.0178 |
| 💹 Current rate (with date) | 1.1731 USD (as of July 10, 2025) |
The Price: Evolution and Real-Time Chart
The EUR/USD exchange rate is a critical barometer of the relative economic health of the Eurozone and the United States, making it the most traded currency pair globally. Its value is influenced by a combination of key factors, including the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), major economic data releases like inflation and employment figures, and the broader geopolitical climate, particularly trade relations between the two economic blocs.
| Period | Approximate Price Level | Variation (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | ~1.1750 | -0.25% |
| 1 month | ~1.1450 | +2.5% |
| Since Jan 1st | ~1.0900 | +7.53% |
| 12 months | High: 1.1829 / Low: 1.0178 | +13.04% |
The average daily volatility for EUR/USD over the last 30 days has hovered around 70 pips. This metric is vital for active traders, as it indicates the typical price range within a single day. Higher volatility can create more opportunities for short-term strategies like day trading and scalping, but it also increases risk, requiring careful management.
In recent weeks, the EUR/USD has been consolidating near the 1.1730 mark after a significant rally to its yearly high. While the longer-term trend remains bullish, supported by improving European economic fundamentals, short-term technical indicators suggest a potential for a minor correction. The pair is currently navigating between a key support level at 1.1700 and a major resistance at 1.1830.
EUR/USD Forecast: Should you invest in this currency pair?
In mid-2025, the EUR/USD currency pair is at a critical juncture, attracting significant attention from Canadian investors. After a strong upward trend over the past year, the pair is currently consolidating around the 1.1730 level, just below its recent peak. This period of hesitation reflects the broader uncertainty in global markets, primarily driven by the divergent monetary policies of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders are closely watching for new catalysts that could determine the next major directional move.
Fundamental analysis
The fundamental landscape for EUR/USD is shaped by a complex interplay of macroeconomic forces. The primary driver remains the interest rate differential between the Eurozone and the United States. While the Fed's key rate stands at a relatively high 4.50%, the ECB's is at 2.15%. Theoretically, this favours the US dollar. However, market sentiment has recently shifted in favour of the euro due to expectations that the ECB will pause its rate-cutting cycle, while the US economic outlook faces its own set of challenges. Furthermore, improving economic sentiment in Europe, supported by progress in EU-US trade negotiations, provides underlying support for the common currency.
Key economic publications to monitor include:
- ECB and Fed monetary policy decisions: Statements on future rate paths are more important than the decisions themselves.
- Inflation data (CPI): Inflation figures from both the Eurozone and the US will heavily influence central bank policy.
- GDP growth figures and employment data: These provide insight into the relative health of each economy.
- Geopolitical and trade developments: Announcements regarding EU-US trade relations are a significant potential catalyst.
Good to know
The EUR/USD pair is highly sensitive to global risk sentiment. During "risk-on" periods, when investor appetite for risk is high, the pair often trends upward as capital moves away from the safe-haven US dollar. Consequently, it often exhibits a positive correlation with major stock indices like the S&P 500. Conversely, it is negatively correlated with the US Dollar Index (DXY).
Technical analysis
From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD is in a long-term uptrend, as confirmed by its position above the key 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages. However, short-term indicators are flashing signs of a potential correction or consolidation. The price is currently testing key levels after failing to break significantly above its 2025 high.
- Key support and resistance levels:
- Resistance: The primary resistance is the recent high at 1.1830. A sustained break above this level would signal a continuation of the bullish trend. An intermediate resistance lies at 1.1765.
- Support: The immediate support level is at 1.1700, followed by the critical zone at 1.1683 (the recent low). A drop below this area could trigger a deeper correction towards 1.1650.
- Technical indicators:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 30, entering oversold territory. This may suggest that the recent selling pressure is waning and could precede a bounce.
- The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator has recently generated a bearish crossover, pointing to weakening upward momentum in the short term.
The conflicting signals from these indicators reinforce the idea that the pair is in a phase of indecision, caught between its strong long-term uptrend and short-term selling pressure. A breakout from the current range (1.1683 - 1.1830) will be necessary to provide a clearer directional bias.
Trading Profile: How to Trade the Pair Effectively?
The EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair in the world, making it a popular choice for traders in Canada. Its popularity stems from its unparalleled liquidity, which ensures tight spreads and smooth execution. The pair also offers consistent volatility driven by major economic news from both the Eurozone and the United States, providing numerous trading opportunities for various strategies and experience levels.
Recommended trading strategy
| Trading Style | Relevance for EUR/USD | Why? |
|---|---|---|
| Scalping | High | Extremely high liquidity and tight spreads allow for frequent, small-profit trades with minimal transaction costs. |
| Day trading | High | The pair experiences significant intraday movements, especially during session overlaps, creating clear opportunities based on technical analysis. |
| Swing trading | Medium | EUR/USD often follows multi-day or weekly trends based on technical levels and macroeconomic shifts, suitable for holding positions over several days. |
| Long term | Low | While possible for those focused on major fundamental shifts, long-term holding is less common due to the impact of overnight swap fees and capital lock-up. |
Peak volatility hours
The highest volatility for EUR/USD occurs when major market sessions overlap, leading to increased trading volume and price movement.
| Time Slot (CET) | Activity Level |
|---|---|
| 09:00 - 12:00 | High (London open) |
| 14:00 - 18:00 | Very High (London/New York overlap) |
| 18:00 - 22:00 | Medium (New York session) |
| 22:00 - 08:00 | Low (Asian session) |
Expert tip
For active day traders in Canada, the most opportune window is the London-New York overlap, typically from 8:00 AM to 12:00 PM EST. This period concentrates the highest volume and presents the most significant intraday trading opportunities.
Liquidity and trading volume
- Average Daily Volume: Over $1 trillion
- Forex Market Share: Approximately 20-25% of total daily volume
- Typical Spreads: Among the lowest in the market, often below 1 pip on major broker platforms
Recommended leverage and risk management
In Canada, leverage limits are determined by the margin requirements set by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO). For major pairs like EUR/USD, leverage can be substantial, but it must be used cautiously.
- Beginner: 5:1 to 10:1
- Intermediate: 10:1 to 25:1
- Advanced: Up to 50:1 (or the maximum allowed by the broker)
Attention!
Effective risk management is crucial. Never risk more than 1-2% of your trading capital on a single trade. Always use a stop-loss order to define your maximum acceptable loss and protect your account from significant drawdowns.
Our 10 tips for trading the EUR/USD
| Advice | Why it's important |
|---|---|
| 1. Respect the London-New York overlap | This is the period of highest liquidity and volatility (approx. 8 AM to 12 PM EST), offering the best trading opportunities. |
| 2. Monitor ECB and Fed calendars | EUR/USD is driven by interest rate decisions, inflation data (CPI), and employment figures (NFP) from both regions. |
| 3. Use a strict stop-loss | Given its volatility, a stop-loss protects your capital from unexpected market spikes caused by news or events. |
| 4. Avoid over-leveraging | High leverage amplifies both gains and losses. For a major pair like EUR/USD, prudent leverage is key to longevity. |
| 5. Identify key support/resistance levels | EUR/USD often respects major psychological levels (e.g., 1.1000, 1.1500) and technical pivot points. |
| 6. Understand the "risk-on/risk-off" dynamic | The USD often acts as a safe haven. In "risk-off" periods, EUR/USD may fall even without specific Euro weakness. |
| 7. Correlate with the Dollar Index (DXY) | The DXY has a strong inverse correlation with EUR/USD. A rising DXY typically means a falling EUR/USD. |
| 8. Start with a demo account | Practice your strategies without financial risk to understand the pair's behaviour and test your execution. |
| 9. Keep a trading journal | Documenting your trades helps you identify recurring mistakes, successful patterns, and refine your strategy. |
| 10. Don't fight the primary trend | On higher time frames (daily, weekly), trading in the direction of the underlying trend increases your probability of success. |
Effective strategies on EUR/USD
| Strategy | Description | Relevance on EUR/USD |
|---|---|---|
| Breakout Trading | Entering a position when the price breaks through a key support or resistance level with significant volume. | Highly effective after periods of consolidation, which are common for EUR/USD before a major news release. |
| Technical Bounce | Buying at a confirmed support level or selling at a confirmed resistance level within a defined range. | Works well when the pair is range-bound, especially between major economic announcements. |
| News Trading | Opening a position based on the outcome of major economic news (e.g., NFP, ECB press conference). | Extremely relevant but high-risk. EUR/USD reacts instantly and strongly to monetary policy and key economic data. |
| Moving Average Crossover | Using the crossover of a short-term MA (e.g., 20) and a long-term MA (e.g., 50 or 200) as a trend-following signal. | A classic strategy to identify and follow the medium-to-long-term trends that EUR/USD often establishes. |
Backtests and historical behaviours
- Historical variation zone: Historically, the pair has fluctuated in wide ranges. While extreme movements have pushed it below parity (1.0000) or above 1.6000, a more common multi-year range is between 1.0500 and 1.2500. The 52-week range often sits within 1000-1500 pips.
- Seasonality: The pair often exhibits lower volatility during the summer months (July-August) and increased activity towards the end of the year. Some historical trends suggest a potential strengthening of the Euro in Q4, but this is not a guaranteed pattern.
- Average performance by month: Performance varies greatly year to year. However, statistical analysis often shows that months with key central bank meetings (March, June, September, December) can be more directional.
- Most volatile days: Volatility is not evenly distributed throughout the week. It is typically lowest on Mondays and highest from Tuesday to Thursday, when most major economic data is released. The overlap of the London and New York sessions is the most active period of any trading day.
How to trade the EUR/USD pair?
| Step | Description |
|---|---|
| Choose a reliable broker | Select a broker regulated in Canada by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) to ensure the safety of your funds and fair trading conditions. |
| Understand the fundamentals | Follow key economic indicators impacting EUR/USD, such as interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), as well as employment data (like NFP) and inflation reports. |
| Analyze the charts | Use technical analysis to identify trends and potential entry/exit points. Utilize indicators like RSI and MACD, and map out key support and resistance levels on the price chart. |
| Define your trading strategy | Determine your approach based on your goals and risk tolerance. Common strategies include day trading (short-term), swing trading (medium-term), or scalping (very short-term). |
| Place orders and manage risk | Use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses and take-profit orders to secure gains. Apply sound money management by risking only a small percentage of your capital on each trade. |
| Monitor positions and adjust if needed | Keep track of your open trades and stay informed about upcoming economic news. Be prepared to adjust your stop-loss or take-profit levels if market conditions change significantly. |
The latest news for the pair
On July 7, 2025, news of significant progress in trade negotiations between the European Union and the United States provided a major boost to the euro. The announcement, suggesting a framework agreement was within reach, eased market fears of transatlantic trade tensions. In response, the EUR/USD rallied sharply, testing the upper end of its recent range and briefly approaching the 1.1800 psychological level before consolidating.
On July 4, 2025, the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report for June showed a slowdown in job creation, with figures coming in below economists' expectations. This data reinforced the market's belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve would pause its interest rate hiking cycle. The subsequent weakening of the U.S. dollar caused the EUR/USD to surge, breaking past the 1.1750 mark as traders priced in a less aggressive Fed.
On June 28, 2025, preliminary inflation data from the Eurozone indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained steady at 2.0%, slightly above forecasts. This persistent inflation reduced pressure on the European Central Bank (BCE) to pursue further rate cuts. The data provided underlying strength to the euro, helping the EUR/USD establish a firm support base around the 1.1700 level heading into July.
On June 12, 2025, the European Central Bank announced a widely anticipated interest rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing its main deposit facility rate down to 2.15%. While a rate cut is typically bearish, the bank's forward guidance strongly signalled a pause in its easing cycle for the upcoming months. After a brief initial dip, this outlook caused the EUR/USD to rebound, as the decision had already been priced in by the market.
FAQ
What is the current trend for EUR/USD?
The pair is currently in a consolidation phase after a strong long-term uptrend, where it gained over 13% in the past year. Recently, it has been trading within a range between the key support at 1.1683 and resistance near 1.1830. While fundamentals remain supportive of the euro, short-term technical indicators are showing signs of weakness and suggest a potential correction or continued sideways movement before a clear direction emerges.
Is it a good time to buy EUR/USD?
This depends on your risk profile, as the market gives mixed signals. Long-term fundamentals are positive, but short-term technicals suggest caution. A decisive breakout above the 1.1830 resistance could be a bullish signal for trend-followers. More conservative traders might wait for the price to establish a solid base above the 1.1700 level or for a clearer signal from central bank policies before entering a long position.
Can you trade EUR/USD with a small capital?
Yes, EUR/USD is one of the most accessible pairs for traders with smaller capital. Its high liquidity ensures very low spreads, reducing transaction costs. The pair's volatility is generally moderate, making it more manageable than exotic pairs. Canadian traders can use brokers offering micro-lots to open smaller positions, allowing for precise risk management even with a modest starting investment.
What are the best hours to trade EUR/USD?
The ideal time to trade EUR/USD is during the London and New York session overlap, which occurs between 8:00 AM and 12:00 PM EST. This four-hour window sees the highest trading volume and volatility, resulting in tighter spreads and more significant price movements. Trading activity is often highest from Tuesday to Thursday, especially around major economic data releases from the Eurozone or the U.S.
What strategy works best on this pair?
EUR/USD is versatile and responds well to several strategies. Breakout strategies are effective when the price moves beyond key levels like 1.1683 or 1.1830. During consolidation phases, range-trading strategies using indicators like the RSI to identify overbought/oversold conditions can work well. Trading macroeconomic news, such as central bank announcements or inflation data, is also popular, though it carries higher risk.
What is the current trend for EUR/USD?
The pair is currently in a consolidation phase after a strong long-term uptrend, where it gained over 13% in the past year. Recently, it has been trading within a range between the key support at 1.1683 and resistance near 1.1830. While fundamentals remain supportive of the euro, short-term technical indicators are showing signs of weakness and suggest a potential correction or continued sideways movement before a clear direction emerges.
Is it a good time to buy EUR/USD?
This depends on your risk profile, as the market gives mixed signals. Long-term fundamentals are positive, but short-term technicals suggest caution. A decisive breakout above the 1.1830 resistance could be a bullish signal for trend-followers. More conservative traders might wait for the price to establish a solid base above the 1.1700 level or for a clearer signal from central bank policies before entering a long position.
Can you trade EUR/USD with a small capital?
Yes, EUR/USD is one of the most accessible pairs for traders with smaller capital. Its high liquidity ensures very low spreads, reducing transaction costs. The pair's volatility is generally moderate, making it more manageable than exotic pairs. Canadian traders can use brokers offering micro-lots to open smaller positions, allowing for precise risk management even with a modest starting investment.
What are the best hours to trade EUR/USD?
The ideal time to trade EUR/USD is during the London and New York session overlap, which occurs between 8:00 AM and 12:00 PM EST. This four-hour window sees the highest trading volume and volatility, resulting in tighter spreads and more significant price movements. Trading activity is often highest from Tuesday to Thursday, especially around major economic data releases from the Eurozone or the U.S.
What strategy works best on this pair?
EUR/USD is versatile and responds well to several strategies. Breakout strategies are effective when the price moves beyond key levels like 1.1683 or 1.1830. During consolidation phases, range-trading strategies using indicators like the RSI to identify overbought/oversold conditions can work well. Trading macroeconomic news, such as central bank announcements or inflation data, is also popular, though it carries higher risk.
