EUR/TRY: Buy or sell?
ScoreThe EUR/TRY currency pair, linking the Euro to the Turkish Lira, is a key focus for investors interested in emerging markets. Known for its significant volatility, the pair currently trades around 46.96 TRY, following a substantial annual increase of over 32%.
Forecasts for 2025:
- August 2025: 47.50
- September 2025: 50.66
- End of 2025: A range between 49.17 and 55.81
- Long-term: An anticipated upward trend is expected.
Analysis:
The Euro-Turkish Lira (EUR/TRY) pair is currently valued at approximately 46.96. It has experienced a strong upward trend over the past year, driven by Turkey's structural inflation and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) monetary policy. Despite the CBRT maintaining a high key interest rate of 46%, the Lira faces long-term depreciation pressure against the Euro, a dynamic reinforced by slower-than-expected Turkish economic growth. According to our analysis, while short-term technical indicators suggest potential consolidation, the underlying fundamental trend remains upward. For investors with a medium to long-term view, this could present strategic entry points, with a potential objective toward the 51.00-61.00 range into 2026. Monitoring the CBRT's next policy meeting on July 24, 2025, is crucial for direction.
- ✅Significant volatility creates frequent trading opportunities.
- ✅Clear, long-term fundamental trend driven by economic factors.
- ✅High responsiveness to central bank policy announcements.
- ✅Potential for substantial returns due to large price swings.
- ✅Widely available for trading on most forex platforms.
- ❌As an exotic pair, it has lower liquidity and wider spreads.
- ❌High sensitivity to regional geopolitical developments can cause sudden shifts.
Score- ✅Significant volatility creates frequent trading opportunities.
- ✅Clear, long-term fundamental trend driven by economic factors.
- ✅High responsiveness to central bank policy announcements.
- ✅Potential for substantial returns due to large price swings.
- ✅Widely available for trading on most forex platforms.
EUR/TRY: Buy or sell?
- ✅Significant volatility creates frequent trading opportunities.
- ✅Clear, long-term fundamental trend driven by economic factors.
- ✅High responsiveness to central bank policy announcements.
- ✅Potential for substantial returns due to large price swings.
- ✅Widely available for trading on most forex platforms.
- ❌As an exotic pair, it has lower liquidity and wider spreads.
- ❌High sensitivity to regional geopolitical developments can cause sudden shifts.
Score- ✅Significant volatility creates frequent trading opportunities.
- ✅Clear, long-term fundamental trend driven by economic factors.
- ✅High responsiveness to central bank policy announcements.
- ✅Potential for substantial returns due to large price swings.
- ✅Widely available for trading on most forex platforms.
- August 2025: 47.50
- September 2025: 50.66
- End of 2025: A range between 49.17 and 55.81
- Long-term: An anticipated upward trend is expected.
The Euro-Turkish Lira (EUR/TRY) pair is currently valued at approximately 46.96. It has experienced a strong upward trend over the past year, driven by Turkey's structural inflation and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) monetary policy. Despite the CBRT maintaining a high key interest rate of 46%, the Lira faces long-term depreciation pressure against the Euro, a dynamic reinforced by slower-than-expected Turkish economic growth. According to our analysis, while short-term technical indicators suggest potential consolidation, the underlying fundamental trend remains upward. For investors with a medium to long-term view, this could present strategic entry points, with a potential objective toward the 51.00-61.00 range into 2026. Monitoring the CBRT's next policy meeting on July 24, 2025, is crucial for direction.
- EUR/TRY in brief
- EUR/TRY Price: Evolution and Real-Time Chart
- EUR/TRY Forecast: Should You Invest in This Currency Pair?
- Trading Profile: How to Trade the Pair Effectively?
- Our 10 tips for trading the EUR/TRY
- How to trade the EUR/TRY pair?
- The latest news on the pair
- FAQ
Why trust Hellosafe?
At HelloSafe, our expert has been monitoring the EUR/TRY pair for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users in France trust us to analyze market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are published for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.
EUR/TRY in brief
| Element | Detail |
|---|---|
| ? Pair name | EUR/TRY |
| ?️ Pair type | Exotic pair |
| ? Concerned regions | Eurozone / Turkey |
| ? Base currency | EUR (Euro) |
| ? Quote currency | TRY (Turkish Lira) |
| ? 1-month variation | -0.25% (approx.) |
| ? Average volatility (30 days rolling, in %) | Moderate |
| ? 12-month high | 47.3316 TRY |
| ? 12-month low | 35.4549 TRY |
| ? Current price | 46.9607 TRY (as of July 10, 2025) |
EUR/TRY Price: Evolution and Real-Time Chart
The EUR/TRY exchange rate is a critical barometer of the economic relationship between the Eurozone and Turkey, reflecting the stark contrast in their monetary policies and economic stability. The pair's value is primarily driven by a few key factors: the ultra-high interest rates set by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to combat inflation, versus the more accommodative stance of the European Central Bank (ECB). Furthermore, high-impact economic data, such as inflation and GDP growth figures from both regions, and the persistent geopolitical context surrounding Turkey, heavily influence its direction, making it one of the most volatile and fundamentally-driven currency pairs.
| Period | Approximate price level | Variation (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | From 46.75 to 46.96 | +0.45% |
| 1 month | From 47.10 to 46.96 | -0.30% |
| Since January 1st | From 35.45 to 46.96 | +32.62% |
| Over 12 months | 52-week range: 35.45 - 47.33 | +32.62% |
The EUR/TRY is known for its exceptionally high volatility. Over the last 30 days, its average daily range has frequently exceeded 500 pips. For active traders, this extreme movement presents both significant profit opportunities and substantial risks. The wide price swings mean that positions can move rapidly, necessitating the use of strict risk management tools like stop-loss orders and careful position sizing to protect capital from sudden adverse moves.
Recent trends show the pair is experiencing a short-term bearish correction within a powerful, long-term uptrend. Technical indicators are currently signaling a "Strong Sell" as the price trades below its key short-term moving averages, suggesting downward pressure. The pair is currently testing an immediate support zone around 46.90. This technical pullback contrasts with the fundamental reality of persistent Turkish Lira weakness, driven by structural inflation and political risk, which supports a bullish outlook over the medium to long term.
EUR/TRY Forecast: Should You Invest in This Currency Pair?
In mid-2025, the EUR/TRY pair is at a critical juncture, defined by a stark contrast between monetary policies. In Turkey, the central bank is engaged in an aggressive fight against deeply entrenched inflation with a policy rate of 46%, while the Eurozone maintains a more stable, accommodative stance. This has driven the pair into a powerful long-term uptrend, though it is currently experiencing a period of short-term consolidation and high volatility. Trading near historical highs around the 47.00 level, the market is carefully weighing the credibility of Turkey's disinflationary policies against persistent structural economic challenges.
Fundamental analysis
The primary driver of the EUR/TRY is the massive divergence in macroeconomic fundamentals. Turkey's economy is characterized by high inflation, which, despite a recent decline to 35% in June 2025, remains one of the highest among emerging markets. In contrast, the Eurozone enjoys relative price stability. This inflation differential fundamentally erodes the value of the Turkish Lira over time.
Central bank policy is the other key factor. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has demonstrated a commitment to orthodox policy by raising its key interest rate to 46%. This move is designed to curb inflation and stabilize the currency. However, the market remains cautious, looking for sustained commitment. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a much lower interest rate, focused on ensuring economic stability in the Eurozone. This creates a significant interest rate differential that, while theoretically attractive for carry traders, is often overshadowed by Turkey's inflation and geopolitical risks.
Key economic releases to watch:
- Turkish Consumer Price Index (CPI): The most critical data point for gauging the success of the CBRT's policies.
- CBRT Interest Rate Decisions: The next meeting on July 24, 2025, will be closely monitored for any change in tone or policy.
- Eurozone Inflation (HICP) and GDP Data: These figures influence the ECB's policy, which affects the Euro side of the pair.
- Turkey's Current Account Balance: A persistent deficit puts long-term pressure on the Lira.
Good to know
The EUR/TRY is highly sensitive to broader market risk sentiment. As an emerging market currency, the Turkish Lira often weakens when global investors become risk-averse, leading to a rise in EUR/TRY. The pair is also influenced by geopolitical developments in the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea regions, which can trigger sudden bouts of volatility.
Technical analysis
The long-term technical picture for EUR/TRY is unequivocally bullish, characterized by a steep and consistent uptrend over the past several years, with the pair gaining over 32% in the last year alone. However, the short-term view is more nuanced. Recent price action shows a consolidation phase, with technical indicators like the RSI and MACD flashing "Sell" signals, suggesting a temporary pullback or pause in the trend.
- Support and Resistance: Immediate support is found around the 46.90 level. A break below this could signal a deeper correction. Key resistance is located at the psychological 47.00 mark, followed by the all-time high of 47.33. A sustained move above this level would confirm the continuation of the primary uptrend.
- Technical Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.32 is in neutral-to-bearish territory, indicating that the recent bullish momentum has faded. The MACD is also negative, confirming this short-term weakness. The price is currently trading below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which are acting as dynamic resistance.
- Potential Scenarios: A bullish continuation would require the price to reclaim the moving averages and break decisively above the 47.00-47.33 resistance zone. Conversely, a failure to overcome this resistance could see the pair drift lower to test deeper support levels, offering a potential re-entry point for long-term trend followers if the fundamental picture remains unchanged.
Trading Profile: How to Trade the Pair Effectively?
The EUR/TRY, pairing the Euro with the Turkish Lira, attracts traders looking for high-volatility opportunities. As an exotic pair, its price movements are often dramatic, driven by the significant economic and monetary policy divergences between the Eurozone and Turkey. The persistent inflation and unique interest rate policies in Turkey create strong, albeit risky, trends that are accessible to traders. However, its accessibility comes with the need for a robust trading strategy and a deep understanding of its specific characteristics.
Recommended trading strategy
| Trading Style | Relevance on EUR/TRY | Why? |
|---|---|---|
| Scalping | Very Low | Not recommended. The spreads on EUR/TRY are typically very wide, and transaction costs (including swaps) can quickly erase any small profits targeted by scalping. The extreme volatility also makes it exceptionally risky. |
| Day trading | Moderate | Possible, but requires caution. The pair's high intraday volatility can provide opportunities, but it also means that stop-losses need to be wider than usual. Best suited for experienced traders who can manage large price swings. |
| Swing trading | Very High | This is often the most effective approach. EUR/TRY is known for its strong, sustained trends that can last for weeks or months, driven by fundamental factors like interest rate decisions and inflation data. This allows traders to capture significant price movements. |
| Long term | High | A viable strategy, particularly for trend-following investors. Historically, the Turkish Lira's structural depreciation has created a powerful long-term uptrend in the EUR/TRY pair. This requires significant patience and capital to withstand short-term pullbacks. |
Maximum volatility hours
The highest volatility for EUR/TRY is concentrated during the European trading session when both markets are fully operational.
| Time Slot (CET) | Observed Activity |
|---|---|
| 09:00 - 12:00 | High: This is the peak activity window. The opening of European markets (Frankfurt, London) and the Turkish market brings maximum liquidity and movement, especially around economic data releases. |
| 12:00 - 17:00 | Moderate: Volatility remains present but tends to decrease slightly. The overlap with the U.S. session can introduce additional movement, but the primary drivers are local. |
| 17:00 - 22:00 | Low: Activity drops off significantly after European and Turkish markets close. Spreads tend to widen, making trading less attractive. |
Expert Tip
For active trading, the most opportune time is the 09:00 to 12:00 CET window. This period offers the best liquidity and is when key policy decisions from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) or major Eurozone data are often announced.
Liquidity and traded volume
- Average Daily Volume: As an exotic pair, its volume is significantly lower than that of major pairs. This results in moderate liquidity.
- Market Share: The Turkish Lira's share of the global forex market is small, reinforcing its status as an exotic currency.
- Typical Spreads: Spreads are considerably wider than on major pairs, often ranging from 50 to 150 pips or more, especially during volatile periods or outside of peak trading hours.
Recommended leverage and risk management
In Canada, forex leverage is regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO). For exotic pairs like EUR/TRY, margin requirements are higher, which means lower available leverage. This is a protective measure due to the pair's high volatility.
- Beginner: 1:1 to 1:5 - It is crucial to start with very low or no leverage to understand the pair's extreme movements without risking significant capital.
- Intermediate: 1:5 to 1:10 - For traders who have demonstrated consistent profitability and have a solid risk management plan in place.
- Advanced: Up to the maximum permitted by your broker (often capped around 1:20 or 1:30 for exotics under CIRO rules). This should only be considered by highly experienced professionals.
Warning!
Given the extreme volatility of EUR/TRY, disciplined risk management is paramount. Always use a hard stop-loss on every trade. Never risk more than 1% of your trading capital on a single position. The pair can move several percent in a single day, and without these rules, your capital is at severe risk.
Our 10 tips for trading the EUR/TRY
| Advice | Why it's important |
|---|---|
| 1. Prioritize Fundamental Analysis | EUR/TRY is overwhelmingly driven by Turkish economic policy, inflation, and political events. Technical signals are secondary to major announcements from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). |
| 2. Follow the Prevailing Trend | The pair has been in a powerful, multi-year uptrend due to the structural depreciation of the Turkish Lira. Trading against this dominant trend is exceptionally risky and not recommended for inexperienced traders. |
| 3. Mind the Negative Swap | Due to the massive interest rate difference, holding a long EUR/TRY position (buying) will incur a significant negative swap fee daily. This cost can quickly erode profits on long-term trades and must be factored into your strategy. |
| 4. Use Smaller Position Sizes | The pair's extreme volatility means even small price changes can lead to large profits or losses. Using smaller position sizes is a critical risk management tool to protect your capital from sudden, sharp price swings. |
| 5. Be Aware of High Spreads | As an exotic pair, EUR/TRY has much wider bid-ask spreads than major pairs. This increases the cost of entering and exiting trades, making it less suitable for very short-term scalping strategies. |
| 6. Mark CBRT Meetings on Your Calendar | The CBRT's interest rate decisions and subsequent press conferences are the most significant catalysts for volatility. Be aware of these dates and exercise extreme caution when trading around these events. |
| 7. Widen Your Stop-Losses | The pair's high daily range can easily trigger tight stop-losses, resulting in premature exits. If you use stop-losses, they must be placed far enough away to accommodate the typical daily volatility. |
| 8. Stay Informed on Turkish Politics | The value of the Lira is highly sensitive to Turkey's domestic political landscape and geopolitical relations. Following reputable international news sources is essential to anticipate potential market-moving events. |
| 9. Avoid Trading in Illiquid Hours | Spreads can widen dramatically during periods of low liquidity, such as the Asian session or overnight. Stick to the more liquid London and New York sessions for better pricing and execution. |
| 10. Have a Clear Exit Strategy | Before entering any trade, you must know your profit target and your maximum acceptable loss. The pair's volatility demands disciplined adherence to a pre-defined exit plan to avoid emotional decisions. |
Effective strategies on EUR/TRY
| Strategy | Description | Relevance on EUR/TRY |
|---|---|---|
| Trend Following | Using technical indicators like long-term Moving Averages (e.g., 50-day, 200-day) to identify the primary uptrend and entering long positions on pullbacks or dips. | Very High. This is the most common and historically effective strategy, as it aligns with the fundamental weakness of the Lira. It is best suited for swing or position trading. |
| Breakout Trading | Entering a long position when the price decisively breaks above a key resistance level or a multi-day high, often following a period of consolidation. | High. The pair often consolidates before major news events. A breakout can signal the start of the next powerful leg up, offering strong directional momentum. |
| News Trading | Trading directly on the outcome of scheduled events like CBRT rate decisions or inflation data releases. | High (but Extremely Risky). While potentially very profitable, the extreme volatility around news can lead to severe slippage and unpredictable outcomes. This is for advanced traders only. |
| Shorting for Carry (Contrarian) | Holding a short position (selling EUR/TRY) to profit from the large positive swap paid daily. This is a contrarian strategy that bets against the primary trend. | Moderate. This strategy can be profitable during extended periods of consolidation or gradual pullbacks. However, it carries significant risk if the primary uptrend resumes sharply. |
Backtests and historical behaviors
- Historical variation zone: The pair is defined by one of the strongest and most persistent uptrends in the Forex market. It has moved from single digits to nearly 50 over the past decade. The 52-week range alone (from 35.45 to 47.33) highlights its massive directional bias and volatility.
- Seasonality: EUR/TRY shows no reliable seasonal patterns. Its performance is almost entirely driven by the Turkish economic and political calendar, not by the time of year.
- Average monthly performance: Over the long term, the average monthly performance has been overwhelmingly positive for long positions. Months featuring high inflation prints or political turmoil in Turkey typically see the largest gains.
- Most volatile days: The most volatile days are invariably those with scheduled monetary policy announcements from the CBRT. Days with key inflation data releases or unexpected major political or geopolitical news also experience extreme price swings.
How to trade the EUR/TRY pair?
| Step | Description |
|---|---|
| Choose a reliable broker | Select a broker regulated by a reputable authority, such as the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) in Canada. Ensure they offer the EUR/TRY pair, as it's an exotic cross, and provide competitive spreads and a stable trading platform. |
| Understand the fundamentals | Follow key economic drivers for both currencies. This includes interest rate decisions from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and the European Central Bank (ECB), Turkish inflation data, and geopolitical events in the region, which significantly impact the Lira's volatility. |
| Analyze the charts | Use technical analysis to identify trends and key price levels. Utilize indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to spot overbought or oversold conditions, MACD to gauge momentum, and identify major support and resistance levels where the price may react. |
| Define your trading strategy | Based on your analysis, establish a clear trading plan. Given EUR/TRY's strong directional moves, trend-following or breakout strategies are often employed. Your strategy should define precise entry and exit points. |
| Place orders and manage risk | This is critical for a volatile pair like EUR/TRY. Always set a stop-loss order to limit your potential loss and a take-profit order to secure profits. Apply strict money management by risking only a small fraction (e.g., 1-2%) of your capital per trade. |
| Monitor positions and adjust if needed | Actively monitor your open trades and stay informed about upcoming economic releases that could cause sharp price swings. Be prepared to adjust your orders according to your pre-defined strategy, but avoid making emotional decisions based on market noise. |
The latest news on the pair
In late June 2025, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announced its decision to hold its key policy rate steady at 46%. This move, which followed a period of aggressive monetary tightening, was interpreted by markets as a signal that the bank intends to maintain its hawkish stance to combat inflation. The decision provided some short-term stability for the lira, causing the EUR/TRY pair to consolidate within a tight range around the 47.00 level.
In early July 2025, official data revealed that Turkey's annual inflation rate for June had fallen to 35%. While this marked a continued decline from previous peaks, the persistently high level of inflation continues to be a major concern for the Turkish economy and its currency. The market reaction was muted, with the EUR/TRY remaining elevated above the 46.80 support level, reflecting ongoing investor concerns about the lira's long-term purchasing power.
On July 8, 2025, disappointing industrial production figures from Germany, the Eurozone's largest economy, raised fresh concerns about the economic health of the bloc. The weaker-than-expected data put moderate selling pressure on the Euro. Consequently, the EUR/TRY pair experienced a slight pullback, dipping from its daily high near 47.21 to trade closer to the 46.90 mark as the Euro component of the pair weakened.
In mid-June 2025, Turkey's Q1 2025 GDP growth was reported at 2.0%, coming in below analyst expectations. The slower growth was seen as a direct consequence of the central bank's high interest rate policy aimed at cooling the economy. The news weighed on the Turkish Lira, causing the EUR/TRY to climb towards the 47.30 resistance level as concerns over an economic slowdown overshadowed the benefits of the tight monetary policy.
FAQ
What is the current trend for EUR/TRY?
The long-term trend for EUR/TRY remains strongly bullish, reflecting the persistent depreciation of the Turkish Lira due to high inflation. The pair has seen a significant rise of over 30% in the past year. However, in the short term, the trend is more neutral to bearish, with technical indicators suggesting a consolidation or a pullback from recent highs near the 47.30 level. This is partly due to the Turkish Central Bank's very high interest rates, which are providing some temporary stability to the Lira.
Is it a good time to buy EUR/TRY?
Deciding when to buy EUR/TRY requires a nuanced analysis. While the long-term fundamental outlook favours a higher exchange rate due to inflation differentials, short-term technical signals are currently weak, suggesting potential for a deeper correction. Patient investors might wait for a confirmed break above key resistance around 47.33 to signal a resumption of the uptrend. Conversely, the high interest rate on the Lira means holding a long EUR/TRY position can be costly due to negative carry.
Can you trade EUR/TRY with a small capital?
Yes, trading EUR/TRY with a small capital is possible, primarily through brokers offering leverage. However, it is crucial to understand that as an exotic pair, EUR/TRY typically has wider spreads and higher volatility than major pairs. This increases risk, so traders with small accounts must practice stringent risk management. It is essential to use small position sizes, risking only a tiny fraction of your capital per trade, and always use stop-loss orders to protect your account.
What are the best hours to trade EUR/TRY?
The most active and liquid hours for trading EUR/TRY are during the London trading session, which runs from approximately 3 AM to 12 PM ET. The overlap with Turkish market hours ensures the highest trading volume and tighter spreads. Volatility often spikes during the release of key economic data from the Eurozone (like ECB announcements) or Turkey (inflation data, CBRT decisions). Therefore, monitoring the economic calendar for these releases is crucial for timing trades effectively.
Which strategy works best on this pair?
Given its strong directional moves, long-term trend-following strategies often work well for EUR/TRY. This involves identifying the primary uptrend on daily or weekly charts using moving averages and entering on pullbacks or breakouts. For shorter-term traders, breakout strategies that capitalize on moves beyond key support or resistance levels can be effective. Using indicators like chart patterns (flags, triangles) to spot consolidation before a breakout is a common approach for this volatile pair.
What is the current trend for EUR/TRY?
The long-term trend for EUR/TRY remains strongly bullish, reflecting the persistent depreciation of the Turkish Lira due to high inflation. The pair has seen a significant rise of over 30% in the past year. However, in the short term, the trend is more neutral to bearish, with technical indicators suggesting a consolidation or a pullback from recent highs near the 47.30 level. This is partly due to the Turkish Central Bank's very high interest rates, which are providing some temporary stability to the Lira.
Is it a good time to buy EUR/TRY?
Deciding when to buy EUR/TRY requires a nuanced analysis. While the long-term fundamental outlook favours a higher exchange rate due to inflation differentials, short-term technical signals are currently weak, suggesting potential for a deeper correction. Patient investors might wait for a confirmed break above key resistance around 47.33 to signal a resumption of the uptrend. Conversely, the high interest rate on the Lira means holding a long EUR/TRY position can be costly due to negative carry.
Can you trade EUR/TRY with a small capital?
Yes, trading EUR/TRY with a small capital is possible, primarily through brokers offering leverage. However, it is crucial to understand that as an exotic pair, EUR/TRY typically has wider spreads and higher volatility than major pairs. This increases risk, so traders with small accounts must practice stringent risk management. It is essential to use small position sizes, risking only a tiny fraction of your capital per trade, and always use stop-loss orders to protect your account.
What are the best hours to trade EUR/TRY?
The most active and liquid hours for trading EUR/TRY are during the London trading session, which runs from approximately 3 AM to 12 PM ET. The overlap with Turkish market hours ensures the highest trading volume and tighter spreads. Volatility often spikes during the release of key economic data from the Eurozone (like ECB announcements) or Turkey (inflation data, CBRT decisions). Therefore, monitoring the economic calendar for these releases is crucial for timing trades effectively.
Which strategy works best on this pair?
Given its strong directional moves, long-term trend-following strategies often work well for EUR/TRY. This involves identifying the primary uptrend on daily or weekly charts using moving averages and entering on pullbacks or breakouts. For shorter-term traders, breakout strategies that capitalize on moves beyond key support or resistance levels can be effective. Using indicators like chart patterns (flags, triangles) to spot consolidation before a breakout is a common approach for this volatile pair.
