AUD/USD: Buy or Sell?
ScoreCurrent level: around 0.6573.
Short-term forecast: a potential dip to 0.64 by the end of Q3 2025.
Medium-term forecast: a recovery towards 0.68 in September and 0.70 by December 2025.
Long-term forecast: an upward trend is anticipated for the Australian dollar against the US dollar in late 2025.
Institutions like NAB are forecasting an appreciation of the AUD against the USD, driven by domestic monetary policy and global commodity trends. Trading AUD/USD today, on July 10, 2025, may offer interesting possibilities depending on your risk tolerance. The recent fundamental shifts have created a bullish short-term environment. However, it is crucial to remain vigilant about potential risks from global trade policy. For long-term investors, a prudent approach is recommended, with close monitoring of economic developments in Australia and China.
The Essentials on AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has been supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to hold its key interest rate at 3.85%, contrary to expectations of a cut. This move was justified by persistent inflation risks, making the AUD more attractive to yield-seeking investors.
The AUD is also benefiting from rising commodity prices. New US tariffs on copper have boosted its price, directly benefiting Australia as a major exporter. This effect, combined with firm iron ore prices, provides a strong fundamental tailwind for the currency.
However, significant risks remain. The primary concerns are an escalation of trade tensions involving the US and a potential economic slowdown in China, which is Australia's most important trading partner. Any negative developments could quickly reverse the AUD's recent gains.
- ✅Highly liquid pair, ensuring tight spreads and lower transaction costs.
- ✅Strongly correlated with commodity prices, offering clear trading signals.
- ✅High reactivity to RBA policy news provides frequent trading opportunities.
- ✅Clear technical trends are often identifiable on charts.
- ✅Widely available on all major forex and CFD trading platforms.
- ❌Highly sensitive to changes in US trade policy and global tariffs.
- ❌Performance is heavily dependent on China's economic health and stability.
Score- ✅Highly liquid pair, ensuring tight spreads and lower transaction costs.
- ✅Strongly correlated with commodity prices, offering clear trading signals.
- ✅High reactivity to RBA policy news provides frequent trading opportunities.
- ✅Clear technical trends are often identifiable on charts.
- ✅Widely available on all major forex and CFD trading platforms.
AUD/USD: Buy or Sell?
- ✅Highly liquid pair, ensuring tight spreads and lower transaction costs.
- ✅Strongly correlated with commodity prices, offering clear trading signals.
- ✅High reactivity to RBA policy news provides frequent trading opportunities.
- ✅Clear technical trends are often identifiable on charts.
- ✅Widely available on all major forex and CFD trading platforms.
- ❌Highly sensitive to changes in US trade policy and global tariffs.
- ❌Performance is heavily dependent on China's economic health and stability.
Score- ✅Highly liquid pair, ensuring tight spreads and lower transaction costs.
- ✅Strongly correlated with commodity prices, offering clear trading signals.
- ✅High reactivity to RBA policy news provides frequent trading opportunities.
- ✅Clear technical trends are often identifiable on charts.
- ✅Widely available on all major forex and CFD trading platforms.
Short-term forecast: a potential dip to 0.64 by the end of Q3 2025.
Medium-term forecast: a recovery towards 0.68 in September and 0.70 by December 2025.
Long-term forecast: an upward trend is anticipated for the Australian dollar against the US dollar in late 2025. Institutions like NAB are forecasting an appreciation of the AUD against the USD, driven by domestic monetary policy and global commodity trends. Trading AUD/USD today, on July 10, 2025, may offer interesting possibilities depending on your risk tolerance. The recent fundamental shifts have created a bullish short-term environment. However, it is crucial to remain vigilant about potential risks from global trade policy. For long-term investors, a prudent approach is recommended, with close monitoring of economic developments in Australia and China. The Essentials on AUD/USD The Australian dollar has been supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to hold its key interest rate at 3.85%, contrary to expectations of a cut. This move was justified by persistent inflation risks, making the AUD more attractive to yield-seeking investors. The AUD is also benefiting from rising commodity prices. New US tariffs on copper have boosted its price, directly benefiting Australia as a major exporter. This effect, combined with firm iron ore prices, provides a strong fundamental tailwind for the currency. However, significant risks remain. The primary concerns are an escalation of trade tensions involving the US and a potential economic slowdown in China, which is Australia's most important trading partner. Any negative developments could quickly reverse the AUD's recent gains.
- AUD/USD in brief
- Price: Real-time Chart and Evolution
- AUD/USD forecast: should you invest in this currency pair?
- Trading Profile: How to Trade the Pair Effectively?
- Our 10 tips for successfully trading AUD/USD
- How to trade the AUD/USD pair
- The latest news on the pair
- FAQ
- On the same topic
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At HelloSafe, our expert has been monitoring the AUD/USD pair for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users in France trust us to analyze market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are published for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.
AUD/USD in brief
| Element | Detail |
|---|---|
| 📛 Pair name | AUD/USD |
| 🗂️ Pair type | Major pair |
| 🌍 Concerned regions | Australia / United States |
| 💶 Base currency | Australian Dollar (AUD) |
| 💵 Quote currency | U.S. Dollar (USD) |
| 📊 1-month variation | +1.12% |
| 📉 Average volatility | ~0.65% (30-day) |
| 📈 12-month high | 0.6943 |
| 📉 12-month low | 0.5914 |
| 💹 Current price | 0.6573 (as of July 10, 2025) |
Price: Real-time Chart and Evolution
The AUD/USD exchange rate, often called the "Aussie," is a major currency pair that serves as a key barometer for global risk appetite and the economic health of the Asia-Pacific region. Its value is heavily influenced by the monetary policy decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the U.S. Federal Reserve. Furthermore, as Australia is a major exporter of commodities, the pair is deeply sensitive to the prices of raw materials like iron ore and copper, as well as the economic performance of its largest trading partner, China. For Canadian investors, tracking AUD/USD provides insight into global trade flows and commodity market trends.
| Period | Approximate Rate | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 0.6540 | +0.51% |
| 1 month | 0.6500 | +1.12% |
| Year-to-date (YTD) | 0.6200 | +6.09% |
| 12 months (range) | 0.5914 - 0.6943 | -2.90% (high: 0.6943, low: 0.5914) |
The average daily volatility for AUD/USD over the last 30 days has been approximately 50-60 pips. This moderate level of volatility provides sufficient daily movement for active traders to find opportunities without the extreme price swings seen in more exotic pairs. However, this still requires diligent risk management, as unexpected economic data or shifts in commodity prices can quickly widen the daily trading range and impact open positions.
The pair is currently in a strong short-term uptrend, having recently bounced from its lows. This bullish momentum is supported by both fundamental and technical factors. Fundamentally, a recent surprise decision by the RBA to hold interest rates steady, combined with rising commodity prices, has provided significant tailwinds for the Australian dollar. Technically, the price is trading within a well-defined ascending channel and has broken above key moving averages, with indicators signalling strong buying interest. The pair is now approaching a key psychological and technical resistance level at 0.6600, which will be a critical test for the continuation of the current rally.
AUD/USD forecast: should you invest in this currency pair?
In mid-2025, the AUD/USD currency pair is at a critical juncture, heavily influenced by surprising central bank decisions and shifting global trade dynamics. The market is currently digesting a recent, unexpected move by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold interest rates steady, defying widespread expectations of a cut. This has injected significant bullish momentum into the pair, pushing it towards key resistance levels. However, this strength is set against a backdrop of global economic uncertainty and trade tensions, creating a volatile and complex trading environment.
Fundamental analysis
The primary fundamental driver for the AUD/USD is the starkly divergent monetary policy between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the U.S. Federal Reserve. The RBA’s recent decision to maintain its cash rate at 3.85%, citing persistent inflation risks, has provided strong support for the Australian dollar. This contrasts with the Fed's policy direction, making the interest rate differential a key factor to watch. Furthermore, rising prices for key Australian exports like copper and iron ore are providing an additional tailwind. However, risks remain, particularly the economic health of China—Australia's largest trading partner—and the potential for escalating global trade disputes.
Key economic publications to monitor:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: For forward guidance and interest rate decisions.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for both Australia and the U.S.: To track inflation, which is a key concern for the RBA.
- Australian and U.S. employment data: To assess the health of the respective labour markets.
- Chinese economic data (GDP, PMI): As a proxy for demand for Australian commodities.
Good to know
The Australian Dollar is known as a "commodity currency." Its value is highly correlated with the prices of key exports like iron ore, copper, and gold. The AUD/USD pair also acts as a barometer for global risk sentiment; it tends to rise when investors are optimistic (risk-on) and fall during periods of uncertainty or fear (risk-off). Developments in China's economy have a particularly strong impact due to its status as Australia's top trading partner.
Technical analysis
From a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD is displaying a clear bullish bias in the short term, with multiple indicators confirming the upward momentum.
- Trend: The pair is currently trading within a well-defined ascending channel, indicating a consistent uptrend. The price is firmly above all its key moving averages (50, 100, and 200-day), which are now acting as dynamic support levels.
- Support and Resistance:
- Key Support: Immediate support is located around the 0.6530 level. A more significant support zone lies near the 200-day moving average and the bottom of the ascending channel.
- Key Resistance: The pair is currently testing immediate resistance near 0.6577. The most critical psychological and technical barrier is the 0.6600 level, which has previously acted as a major inflection point.
- Indicators: The consensus among technical indicators is strongly bullish. The RSI is in bullish territory (around 66), suggesting strong buying pressure, though it is approaching overbought conditions. The MACD is positive and shows upward momentum.
- Potential Scenarios: A decisive breakout above the 0.6600 resistance would be a strong bullish signal, potentially opening the door for a move towards higher targets like 0.6800. Conversely, a failure to break this level could lead to a rejection and a pullback towards the support at 0.6530 or the lower boundary of the channel.
Trading Profile: How to Trade the Pair Effectively?
The AUD/USD, affectionately known in trading circles as the "Aussie," is one of the most popular currency pairs in the forex market. Its appeal stems from its status as a major pair, which ensures high liquidity and tight spreads. Furthermore, as a "commodity currency," its value is strongly linked to the prices of Australia's key exports like iron ore and copper, as well as the economic health of its largest trading partner, China. This creates a unique blend of volatility and clear fundamental drivers, offering diverse opportunities for traders.
Recommended trading strategy
| Trading Style | Relevance on AUD/USD | Why ? |
|---|---|---|
| Scalping | High | Excellent liquidity and competitive spreads make it ideal for capturing small, frequent price movements, particularly during high-volume sessions. |
| Day trading | Very high | The pair experiences significant volatility during the Asian and North American sessions, reacting strongly to economic data from Australia, China, and the U.S. |
| Swing trading | Very high | Trends in commodity prices and divergent monetary policies between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the U.S. Federal Reserve create clear multi-day trading opportunities. |
| Long term | High | Long-term value is driven by fundamental factors like interest rate differentials, global risk sentiment, and the economic performance of Australia and China. |
Maximum volatility hours
The AUD/USD is most active when the markets in Australia, Asia, and North America are open, creating two primary windows of high volatility.
| Time slot (CET) | Activity level |
|---|---|
| 00:00 - 09:00 | Peak The Asian session is in full swing, with key data releases from Australia and China often driving significant moves. |
| 09:00 - 14:00 | Moderate Liquidity remains solid as the European session opens, but major catalysts are less frequent. |
| 14:00 - 18:00 | Peak The overlap with the North American session brings a second wave of high volume and volatility, especially during U.S. data releases. |
| 18:00 - 00:00 | Decreasing Activity slows as the European session closes and the North American session winds down. |
Expert tip
For active traders, the most dynamic periods are the Asian session (00:00 - 09:00 CET) for reacting to local data, and the U.S. session open (14:00 - 18:00 CET) when major global news often dictates market direction.
Liquidity and traded volume
- Market Share: The AUD/USD is one of the top five most-traded currency pairs in the world.
- Average Daily Volume: The pair benefits from exceptionally high liquidity, ensuring that trades can be executed quickly and efficiently.
- Typical Spreads: Due to high volume, spreads are very competitive, typically ranging from 1 to 2 pips on standard retail accounts.
Recommended leverage and risk management
In Canada, leverage for retail forex trading is regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO). The maximum leverage for major pairs like AUD/USD is generally set around 1:50. It is vital to use leverage responsibly and in line with your trading experience.
- Beginner: A conservative leverage of 1:5 to 1:10 is recommended to minimize risk while learning the market.
- Intermediate: Traders with consistent profitability can consider leverage in the 1:10 to 1:25 range.
- Advanced: Seasoned traders may use higher leverage, up to the maximum of 1:50, but always within a well-defined risk management framework.
Watch out!
Sound risk management is non-negotiable for trading success. Always use a stop-loss order on every trade to define your maximum acceptable loss. A cardinal rule is to never risk more than 1-2% of your total trading capital on a single position.
Our 10 tips for successfully trading AUD/USD
| Tip | Why it's important |
|---|---|
| 1. Monitor RBA and Fed decisions | The interest rate differential between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the US Federal Reserve is a primary driver. The RBA's recent surprise decision to hold rates underscores its importance. |
| 2. Track key commodity prices | The AUD is a commodity currency. Prices of iron ore, copper, and gold are critical. As the report notes, the recent tariff on copper directly boosted the AUD. |
| 3. Watch Chinese economic data | China is Australia's largest trading partner. Data like PMI, GDP, and industrial production from China can have a significant and immediate impact on the AUD's value. |
| 4. Understand its "risk-on" nature | The AUD/USD pair is a barometer for global risk sentiment. It typically rises when markets are optimistic (risk-on) and falls during periods of fear and uncertainty (risk-off). |
| 5. Trade during optimal hours | The highest liquidity and volatility occur during the overlap of the Asian and North American sessions (approx. 8:00 PM to 12:00 AM EST) and during the US session open. |
| 6. Analyze the US Dollar Index (DXY) | Since the USD is the quote currency, the overall strength or weakness of the greenback is a major factor. The DXY can provide a broader context for the USD's direction. |
| 7. Follow high-impact data releases | Beyond central banks, monthly employment data from both Australia and the US (Non-Farm Payrolls) and inflation (CPI) figures are major market-moving events. |
| 8. Use leverage with caution | While a major pair, AUD/USD can be volatile, especially around news events. Conservative leverage protects your capital from sharp, unexpected price swings. |
| 9. Identify key technical and psychological levels | The pair often reacts to significant levels like the 0.6500 and 0.6600 marks. As noted, the 0.6600 level is a key inflection point. |
| 10. Keep the broader trend in mind | Use long-term indicators like the 200-day moving average to frame your trades. Trading in the direction of the dominant trend, currently bullish, increases your probability of success. |
Effective strategies on AUD/USD
| Strategy | Description | Relevance on AUD/USD |
|---|---|---|
| Breakout | Entering a trade when the price moves decisively through a key support or resistance level, often confirmed by high volume. | Highly relevant. The pair's sensitivity to news means breakouts from consolidation patterns are common after RBA decisions or major commodity price shifts. |
| Technical Rebound | Also known as range trading. This involves buying near a strong support level and selling near a firm resistance level within a defined channel. | Effective during periods of market indecision, such as the weeks between major central bank meetings when the pair may consolidate. |
| News Trading | Placing trades based on the outcome of high-impact economic announcements, such as RBA rate decisions, US NFP, or Chinese GDP data. | Crucial for this pair. The surprise RBA hold mentioned in the report is a perfect example of a news-driven opportunity. This strategy requires speed and a clear risk management plan. |
| Moving Averages | Using moving average crossovers or pullbacks to identify entry points in the direction of the prevailing trend. | A solid approach for a trending pair like AUD/USD. The report's "Strong Buy" signal across all key moving averages highlights their utility in confirming the current trend. |
Backtests and historical behaviors
The AUD/USD has distinct historical patterns shaped by its fundamental drivers. Its historical variation zone is wide, with the recent 52-week range of 0.5914 - 0.6943 demonstrating its capacity for sustained, multi-month trends. Regarding seasonality, the AUD's performance is less tied to specific calendar months and more to global risk appetite cycles and commodity demand. It often performs well during periods of global growth when risk assets are in favour. The pair's average monthly performance can be streaky; once a trend is established based on a fundamental theme like monetary policy divergence, it can persist for a long duration. Historically, the most volatile days for AUD/USD are Tuesdays (due to RBA meetings), days with major Chinese data releases (often overnight for North American traders), and the first Friday of the month (due to US Non-Farm Payrolls).
How to trade the AUD/USD pair
| Step | Description |
|---|---|
| Choose a reliable broker | Select a broker regulated by a top-tier authority like the CIRO (Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization). Ensure they offer competitive spreads on AUD/USD, fast execution, and a user-friendly platform. Check for transparent fees and responsive customer support. |
| Understand the fundamentals | Follow the key economic drivers. For AUD, this includes RBA interest rate decisions, employment data, and commodity prices (iron ore, copper). For USD, monitor Fed policy, inflation (CPI), and job reports (NFP). China's economic performance is also critical as it is Australia's largest trade partner. |
| Analyze the charts | Use technical analysis to identify trends, patterns, and potential entry/exit points. Apply indicators like the RSI to gauge overbought/oversold conditions, the MACD for momentum, and moving averages to define the trend. Identify key historical support and resistance levels. |
| Define your trading strategy | Choose a strategy that fits your risk profile. Common approaches for AUD/USD include trend-following during clear RBA/Fed policy divergence, range trading in periods of consolidation, or breakout trading around key technical levels or major economic news announcements. |
| Place your orders and manage risk | Always define your risk before entering a trade. Use a stop-loss order to limit potential losses and a take-profit order to secure gains. Practice sound money management by risking only a small fraction (e.g., 1-2%) of your trading capital on any single position. |
| Monitor your positions and adjust if needed | Actively review your open trades. Be ready to adjust your stop-loss to lock in profits or exit a trade if the initial rationale is no longer valid. Stay aware of the economic calendar to anticipate volatility around major data releases from Australia, the U.S., or China. |
The latest news on the pair
July 8, 2025 – In a surprise move, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its official cash rate steady at 3.85%, defying market expectations for a rate cut. The central bank justified its decision by citing persistent underlying inflation risks that warrant a continued restrictive policy stance. The announcement triggered an immediate and sharp rally for the Australian dollar, causing the AUD/USD pair to surge significantly as traders priced out the probability of imminent easing.
July 8, 2025 – The United States government announced plans to impose a significant 50% tariff on all copper imports, effective August 1st. Given Australia's status as a major global copper exporter, the news sent the price of the industrial metal higher. This rise in a key commodity price provided a strong tailwind for the Australian dollar, reinforcing the bullish momentum in the AUD/USD pair.
July 5, 2025 – The latest U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for June came in below economists' forecasts, indicating a potential cooling in the American labor market. The softer-than-expected job creation numbers weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar, as it increased market bets on a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. This broad-based USD weakness allowed the AUD/USD to extend its gains and push towards new monthly highs.
June 19, 2025 – Australia’s monthly employment data for May showed the unemployment rate holding firm at 4.1%, demonstrating ongoing resilience in the domestic labor market. These strong figures provided fundamental support for the AUD, as a tight job market is a key factor underpinning the RBA's reluctance to cut interest rates. The data helped solidify a floor under the AUD/USD pair leading into the central bank's hawkish policy decision in July.
FAQ
What is the current trend for AUD/USD?
The current trend for AUD/USD is bullish, supported by fundamental and technical factors. This upward momentum is driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprisingly hawkish policy stance and a recent surge in key commodity prices like copper. Technically, the pair is trading firmly within an ascending channel, having recently broken above significant moving averages. Traders are now watching the 0.6600 resistance level as the next major test for the uptrend.
Is it a good time to buy AUD/USD?
Deciding whether to buy now requires a nuanced analysis of the market. While technical indicators suggest strong bullish momentum, the RSI is nearing overbought levels, which could signal a forthcoming pullback or consolidation. A sustained break above the 0.6600 resistance would be a strong confirmation for trend-followers, but more conservative traders might prefer to wait for a dip towards support around 0.6530. Key risks, including potential trade tensions, warrant a cautious approach.
Can you trade AUD/USD with a small capital?
Yes, AUD/USD is generally considered suitable for traders with smaller capital. As a major currency pair, it boasts high liquidity, resulting in very low spreads and minimal transaction costs. Brokers typically offer leverage, which allows you to control a larger position with a smaller initial investment. However, it is crucial to remember that leverage amplifies both profits and losses, so practicing disciplined risk management with stop-loss orders is essential.
What are the best times to trade AUD/USD?
The most active periods for trading AUD/USD are during the Asian and New York trading sessions. The Asian session (overnight for Canadian traders) is when key Australian economic data is released, often causing significant price movement. The New York session sees the most activity for the USD. The overlap between the London and New York sessions, roughly from 8:00 AM to 12:00 PM EST, typically offers the highest overall liquidity and volatility for the pair.
What strategy works best on this pair?
Several strategies work well with AUD/USD due to its nature. Trend-following strategies are effective, using tools like moving averages to confirm the direction in a trending market. Breakout strategies can be used to enter trades when the price moves decisively through key chart patterns or support/resistance levels. Finally, trading around major news announcements from the RBA or US Federal Reserve can be profitable, as the pair is highly sensitive to monetary policy changes.
What is the current trend for AUD/USD?
The current trend for AUD/USD is bullish, supported by fundamental and technical factors. This upward momentum is driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprisingly hawkish policy stance and a recent surge in key commodity prices like copper. Technically, the pair is trading firmly within an ascending channel, having recently broken above significant moving averages. Traders are now watching the 0.6600 resistance level as the next major test for the uptrend.
Is it a good time to buy AUD/USD?
Deciding whether to buy now requires a nuanced analysis of the market. While technical indicators suggest strong bullish momentum, the RSI is nearing overbought levels, which could signal a forthcoming pullback or consolidation. A sustained break above the 0.6600 resistance would be a strong confirmation for trend-followers, but more conservative traders might prefer to wait for a dip towards support around 0.6530. Key risks, including potential trade tensions, warrant a cautious approach.
Can you trade AUD/USD with a small capital?
Yes, AUD/USD is generally considered suitable for traders with smaller capital. As a major currency pair, it boasts high liquidity, resulting in very low spreads and minimal transaction costs. Brokers typically offer leverage, which allows you to control a larger position with a smaller initial investment. However, it is crucial to remember that leverage amplifies both profits and losses, so practicing disciplined risk management with stop-loss orders is essential.
What are the best times to trade AUD/USD?
The most active periods for trading AUD/USD are during the Asian and New York trading sessions. The Asian session (overnight for Canadian traders) is when key Australian economic data is released, often causing significant price movement. The New York session sees the most activity for the USD. The overlap between the London and New York sessions, roughly from 8:00 AM to 12:00 PM EST, typically offers the highest overall liquidity and volatility for the pair.
What strategy works best on this pair?
Several strategies work well with AUD/USD due to its nature. Trend-following strategies are effective, using tools like moving averages to confirm the direction in a trending market. Breakout strategies can be used to enter trades when the price moves decisively through key chart patterns or support/resistance levels. Finally, trading around major news announcements from the RBA or US Federal Reserve can be profitable, as the pair is highly sensitive to monetary policy changes.
On the same topic
